The Globe and Mail - 08.04.2020

WEDNESDAY,APRIL8,2020 | THEGLOBEANDMAIL O A

OPINION

NEWS |

A

t time of writing, Canada
had roughly 18,000 con-
firmed cases of COVID-19.
On its own, this does not tell us
much. Is 18,000 a lot or a little?
Only by comparison with some
other benchmark – with previous
experience, with other countries,
with hospital capacity, with the
population – can we begin to
make sense of it.
Even then, the numbers can be
deceiving. Early in the pandemic,
the relatively small numbers
then reported caused people to
underestimate the threat. Now
that the numbers are starting to
wane, the tendency is to overesti-
mate it.
So it’s worth bearing in mind a
few key points as you scan the

case numbers each day.

One: It’s not where the num-

bers are that matters, so much as

where they’re going. More signif-

icant than the total number of

cases, or even the number of new

cases, is the ratio between them:

the rate of growth. Or more par-

ticularly, the effect of compound-

ing that rate of growth over sev-

eral intervals. A caseload that

looks trivial today can be over-

whelming in a few days.

Two: We are not at a point in

time, but on a curve. Simply com-

paring how many cases each

country has, or even how fast

they are growing, does not tell us

much, as both will depend on

what stage the pandemic is at in

each country. Comparisons are

better made not on a given day,

but at similar numbers of days af-

ter each country’s outbreak

began.

Three: Forecasting models are

only as good as the assumptions

built into them. Simple straight-

line extrapolations of current

growth rates into the future can

produce some truly eye-popping

projections. But much can

change in the interim – particu-

larly human behaviour. Indeed, it

is the point ofcurrentgovern-

ment policy around physical dis-

tancing to change our conduct.

Of course, should behaviour

change asgovernments would

wish, actual outcomes will be less

terrifying than the models had

originally forecast. This is not evi-

dence that the policy was unnec-

essary: Rather, it is evidence that

it worked.

And it is working. In most

countries where the epidemic hit

hardest and earliest, growth rates

have dropped substantially. Only

two weeks ago, the number of re-

ported cases in western Europe,

where the epicentre of the dis-

ease shifted after its initial out-

break in China, was growing by

about 15 per cent a day. By last

week it had dropped to 10 per

cent; it is now at around five.

In Canada, likewise, rates have

fallen over the same period, al-

beit from a higher level: from 25

per cent to 15 per cent to less than

8 per cent. Is that evidence that

we are doing worse at combating

the disease? No. Remember point

two: the virus arrived here two

weeks later than Europe; they’ve

had more time to fall from their

peak. Adjusting for our different

start dates, our numbers, both in

total and as a rate of growth,

compare quite favourably.

I know, I know: case counts are

a highly flawed measure. These

are reported, not actual cases.

They tell us how many people

have tested positive for the dis-

ease, but given how few people

have been tested (about 1 per

cent of Canada’s population) and

how selectively the tests have

been applied (mostly those

showing symptoms), the likeli-

hood is that they underestimate

the actual numbers by a wide

margin.

That makes them imperfect,

yes. It doesn’t make them worth-

less. You just have to interpret

them carefully.

In fact, accounting for how the

number of tests performed af-

fects the number of cases report-

ed actually suggests the situation

is rather better than the reported

numbers show. Because the

number of tests has also been

growing, rapidly – from just less

than 24,000 across Canada on

March 14, to almost 400,000. If

the actual number of cases ex-

ceeds the reported number to-

day, it did so by an even wider

margin in weeks past – which

means the fall in the reported

number likely understates the

fall in the actual number.

In any event, case numbers

turn out to be a reasonable proxy

for the numbers we are more in-

terested in, such as hospitaliza-

tions, ICU occupation and

deaths. These are all growing, fas-

ter than we’d like, but slower

than they were – and slower than

they were projected to. In Onta-

rio, for instance, the number of

COVID-19 patients in ICUs was

projected by the province’s

health department, just last

week, to exceed 750 by now – and

that was the “best case” scenario.

The actual number, as of Tues-

day: 233.

We are not by any means out

of the woods. Nor can we let

down our guard any time soon.

But if you thought things were

hopeless, or the policy wasn’t

working, you’re wrong. It’s

working.

InCanada’svirusdata,areasonforhope

Understandinghow

toreadthenumberof

COVID-19casesreveals

thatphysical-distancing

effortsmaybeworking

ANDREW
COYNE

OPINION

Simplycomparinghow

manycaseseach

countryhas,oreven

howfasttheyare

growing,doesnottell

usmuch,asbothwill

dependonwhatstage

thepandemicisatin

eachcountry.

A

t a Canadian-American
conference in Washington
a year ago, former ambas-
sadors from each side were
weighing in on the prospect of
better trade relations.
The name Peter Navarro, who
is U.S. President Donald Trump’s
trade adviser, came up. It would
help a lot, said Gordon Giffin,
who served as Ottawa ambassa-
dor under former U.S. president
Bill Clinton, if Mr. Navarro was
“sent off to Peru.”
“Not far enough,” piped in
Gary Doer, U.S. envoy under for-
mer prime minister Stephen
Harper. He and Mr. Giffin and
other diplomats had seen too
much of Mr. Navarro’s bomb-
throwing, antediluvian approach
to trade with allies.
The wiry, temperamental 70-
year-old economist is character-
ized by Canadian players on the
bilateral front as an ultraprotec-
tionist whack-job. But rather
than have their wish realized of
seeing him banished, Mr. Navar-
ro has gained stature and influ-
ence.
Along with his major trade re-
sponsibilities, he is a driving
force behind Mr. Trump’s Amer-
ica First policies, and he has re-
cently been appointed policy co-
ordinator for the Defense Pro-
duction Act.
When Mr. Trump reopens his
country, which will likely be
sooner than Prime Minister Jus-
tin Trudeau does his, protection-
ist Navarro will have his ear at
the moment when the interde-
pendent world economy can ill

afford to go in a beggar-thy-

neighbour direction.

With the reopening of the

Canada-U.S. border, former am-

bassador David MacNaughton,

who was in deep disagreement

with Mr. Navarro through much

of his tenure, says there’s an op-

portunity to build on the new

North American Free Trade

Agreement. “U.S. protectionism

vis-à-vis Canada would be a mis-

take for them. Doesn’t mean

they won’t.”

Not with the truculent Mr. Na-

varro at large. His reputation as

Canada’s public enemy No. 1 on

team Trump is well earned. His

most recent hostile act was in us-

ing his new defence authority to

try to prevent 3M from exporting

protective masks to Canada for

its fight against COVID-19. That

issue was resolved Monday fol-

lowing bitter complaints from

the Canadian side.

But there will be other erup-

tions. Mr. Navarro recently draft-

ed an executive order that omi-

nously allows him to use nation-

al-security grounds to limit im-

ports of foreign medicines, raw

materials and vaccines.

This brought to mind a move

that outraged Ottawa a couple of

years ago when he used the

same security rationale to justify

Mr. Trump’s imposing of steel

and aluminum tariffs on Canada.

This was after he’d strongly sided

with Mr. Trump in advocating a

total withdrawal by the U.S. from

NAFTA. Like this President, he

could care less about any historic

special relationship with Canada.

A long-time China hawk, Mr.

Navarro is now embroiled in a

coronavirus controversy.

The New York Times reported

Tuesday that he warned Mr.

Trump in a memorandum as

early as Jan. 29 that COVID-

could devastate the country.

In response, Mr. Trump re-

stricted travel from China two

days later. But he subsequently

played down the virus threat and

said recently that no one could

have predicted its disastrous im-

pact.

No one except, as it turns out,

his good friend Mr. Navarro.

In broadening his turf to

COVID-19, Mr. Navarro got into a

shouting match with Dr. Antho-

ny Fauci, insisting to the Presi-

dent’s expert on infectious dis-

eases that the malaria drug

hydroxychloroquine was a good

way to treat the coronavirus. He

was roundly denounced in the

media for trying to come across

as a medical expert.

The same Mr. Navarro was be-

hind the plan for stationing

troops near the Canadian border,

an idea which has since been dis-

carded. He is the one who went

on Fox News after the 2018

Group of Seven summit in Que-

bec to say of Mr. Trudeau that

“there’s a special place in hell for

any foreign leader that engages

in bad-faith diplomacy with

President Donald J. Trump.”

I met Mr. Navarro way back

when we were at the Kennedy

School at Harvard. He was a

hothead then. He is a hothead

now. But similar to Stephen Mill-

er, the President’s race-baiting

immigration adviser, he’s won

over Mr. Trump by kneeling to

his every word.

His demands for steel and alu-

minum tariffs led to the resigna-

tion of moderate Gary Cohn, Mr.

Trump’s top economic adviser,

who worked well with Canada.

In Bob Woodward’s bookFear,

Mr. Cohn depicts Mr. Navarro as

a rogue actor, saying “He’s the

source of all the chaos in this

building.”

Not all, maybe. But with Cana-

da and other allies, he has

wreaked havoc. Having not been

exiled to Peru or a farther desti-

nation, as the former ambassa-

dors hoped, more of the same

can now be anticipated.

Ottawa’sbiggestTrumplandenemyisontherise

WhiteHousetradeadviserPeterNavarroisseenwithPresidentDonaldTrumpandVice-PresidentMikePence

atanewsconferenceonThursday.DOUGMILLS/THENEWYORKTIMES

LAWRENCE
MARTIN

OPINION

W

hen U.S. President
Donald Trump ordered
3M to stop shipping re-
spirator masks to Canada and
Latin America, reaction across
the political spectrum in this
country was swift.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford
called it unacceptable and a lousy
way to treat “friends.” Saskatche-
wan Premier Scott Moe called it
“nothing short of a betrayal.”
Dwight Ball, Premier of New-
foundland and Labrador, remind-
ed the White House of the pivotal
role that his province, and in par-
ticular the town of Gander, played
in taking care of stranded Amer-
ican airline passengers after the
9/11 attack. Even Alberta Premier
Jason Kenney reminded Mr.
Trump that Canada had made
“very real sacrifices” on behalf of
the U.S. in the global fight against
terrorism.
It was quite a team effort, one

that included premiers not nor-

mally known for jumping to the

defence of Prime Minister Justin

Trudeau, who also criticized Mr.

Trump for requesting 3M aban-

don long-time customers in a

time of peril.

Whether it was the tag-team ef-

fort of the premiers or quiet diplo-

macy by Ottawa, the White House

later rescinded the directive. That

doesn’t mean the end of medical

supply problems – not as long as a

mercurial and often vindictive

President remains in charge.

But Mr. Trump did do one posi-

tive thing: He helped unify Cana-

dian political leaders in this coun-

try’s fight against COVID-19. In

fact, the response to the pandem-

ic here has, for the most part, ush-

ered in a most welcome postparti-

sanship period.

A recent story in the Toronto

Star talked about the friendship

that has blossomed between for-

mer enemies Mr. Ford and federal

Liberal cabinet minister Chrystia

Freeland, who is co-ordinating

the government’s coronavirus re-

sponse with the provinces. Now,

the two talk into the night about

the economic fallout from the

pandemic, referring to each other

as their mutual “therapists.”

This truce between rivals has

become evident at the provincial

level as well. In B.C., onetime Lib-

eral cabinet minister Shirley

Bond, as fierce a critic of the NDP

as you’ll find, recently took to

Twitter to thank Health Minister

Adrian Dix for all his hard work,

and urged him to stay safe and

well. Her hashtag #AllinThisTo-

gether received wide applause

from a public not used to such ge-

nerosity of spirit among political

adversaries. This is a bipartisan

scene being played out by provin-

cial politicians across the country.

This does not mean that there

hasn’t been a time and place for

political parties, especially the

Conservative opposition in Otta-

wa, to demand accountability and

transparency inthe government’s

pandemic response. This particu-

larly pertains to the enormous

amounts of money being spent to

help get Canadians through this.

But overall, our politicians have

shed their partisan robes for the

time being, knowing that in the

war we are fighting, we are all on

the same side.

One appreciates this even

more when looking at what is

happening in the U.S., where the

President has picked fights with

those stategovernorswho have

not shown enough appreciation

for whatever help Washington

might be sending their way. The

U.S. in many ways remains as di-

vided as ever, even while the

country tries to fight a common

enemy.

This has led to a fractured re-

sponse to the pandemic, with

some states taking the matter ex-

tremely seriously, while others,

especially in the Republican

south, have been slower to enact

social-distancing measures, if at

all. Any hopes that there might be

a reprieve in the holy war be-

tween the country’s two main po-

litical parties vanished the mo-

ment Mr. Trump blamed the

Democrats for, initially, perpetu-

ating the coronavirus “hoax” and

later for not leaving the country in

very good shape to fight it.

Those Canadians brave

enough to follow what is happen-

ing south of the border doubtless-

ly feel even more fortunate to live

where they do, to witness in real

time what political leadership

looks like amid a global calamity.

No, not every move our gov-

ernments have made have been

perfect. There have been mis-

takes, to be sure. But more often

than not, they have been honest

ones. And thankfully when

they’ve been made, we have not

seen the kind of finger-pointing

that has surfaced in the U.S. – a

phenomenonthat only serves to

make a nervous populace even

more angry and on edge.

In an unparalleled crisis, peo-

ple want their leaders working to-

gether, not at odds with one

another.

We have no idea how long this

public-health emergency will last.

And there will undoubtedly come

a time when politics will look and

sound a lot like it used to.

But there is also a good chance

that some of the antagonism we

are used to seeing will disappear.

Because after you’ve been

through a war with someone,

you’re bonded with them for life.

DonaldTrumphashelpedunifyCanadaamidtheCOVID-19pandemic

GARY
MASON

OPINION