Talking points NEWS 2528 March 2020 THE WEEKDeath rates: astatistical mirage?“Anythingcan happen,
but it usually doesn’t.”
RobertBenchley,quoted
on TheBrowser
“How foolish to think that
one caneverslam thedoor
in the faceofage. Much
wiser to bepolite and
gracious andask him to
lunch in advance.”
NoëlCoward, quoted
in Forbes
“When you growup, who
you were asateenagereither
takes onamythical
importanceorit’s
completely laughable.”
NovelistJulie Buntin,
quotedonShondaland.com
“Whatdo you call an
Instagram celebritywith
Covid-19?An influenzer.”
Joke quoted in TheTimes
“Laughteristhe best
medicine, peopleused to
say, which is handy, now
that youcan’t getaPanadol
for lovenormoney.”
Rebecca Nicholsonin
TheGuardian
“Happy endingscanspring
aleak/ ‘Everafter’ can
mean one week.”
Stephen Sondheim,quoted
in TheNewYorkTimes
“A mother’ slovefor her
child is like nothing else in
the world. It knows nolaw,
no pity.Itd ares al lthings
and crushesdown
remorselessly all that
standsin itspath.”
AgathaChristie, quoted
in The Times
“Justas there are no
atheists onasinking ship,
thereare no free-marketeers
in apandemic.”
Jonathan Freedland in
TheGuardian“It’sgoingtobeaverylong
summer,”saidGabyHinsliff
inTheGuardian.Despiteits
earlierhopethatschool
closuresmightbeavoided,
theGovernmentlastweek
bowedtotheinevitable.
Hoursafteritwas
announcedthatScottish
andWelshschoolswould
beclosingattheendofthe
weektoslowthespreadof
thecoronavirusinfection,
theEducationSecretary,
GavinWilliamson,confirmedthatsome25,00 0
stateandprivateschoolsinEnglandwould
followsuit;schoolswouldremainopenonlyto
thechildrenofkeyworkersandtovulnerable
children.Withnoendtothecrisisinsight,
learningforthevastmajoritywouldnowtake
placeathome.Itwasanannouncement,said
TheSundayTimes,thatsentmorethanten
millionpupilsintheUKona“holidaytheydid
notexpect”.
Nodoubt the news wasa“sourceofunbridled
joy”tomanychildren,saidTonyParsonsin The
Sun.But noteveryone was celebrating.More
thanonemillionstudentswereduetotake
GCSEsor Alevelsthisyear, and withbothsets
of exams nowcancelled,manyhavebeenleft
“devastated”–as if“allthoseyearsofhard
grafthave been fornothing”.Forthosein
theirlast year,it maymean“noleavingparty.
Nochancetosay apropergoodbye” toold
friends,orbrilliant teachers.BorisJohnsonhas
saidnochildwillloseoutas
aresultoftheGovernment’s
decisiontoreplaceexams
withteacherassessments
–butI’mnotsosure,
saidKarenGlaserin
TheSpectator.It’swell-
knownthatprivate
schoolsroutinelyover-
predictthegradesoftheir
predominantlymiddle-
classpupils.AfterFriday’s
announcement,these
studentswillnowfare
“betterthanever”,attheexpenseoftherest.Indeed,“economicinequalitywillbethebiggest
variablebetweentheexperiencesofchildren
overthenextfewmonths”,saidTheGuardian.
Forthemostpart,schoolisagreatleveller.
Whentheyarethere,mostpupilssharethe
samespace,lessonsandteachers.Butathome,
well-offchildrenliveinbiggerhouses,with
moresupportandbetteraccess totechnology
andbooks.Suchfactorscanonlywiden
divisions whichwe must besuretoaddress
when thingsget back tonormal.But fornow,
don’tunderestimatethepowerof“optimism,
actionandcollectiveendeavour”to helpus
throughthiscrisis,saidTheTimes.Young
people arealreadyleadingtheway,helping
their parents aroundthehouse, and using
online learningtofurthertheir own education
andskills.Thecomingvirus-dominatedspring
andsummerwillbe ahugeformativeexperience
forthem.“Itneednotbeanegativeon e.”School’s out: an unexpected holidayReadytostartlearningathomeIs theresomethingaboutbeing
Germanwhich protectsthebody
against Covid19?“Probably
not,Iwould guess,”saidRoss
Clarkin The Spectator.Inwhich
case,whyhasGermany,with
tensof thousandsofpeople
infectedbythedisease,suffered
onlyacouple ofhundred
deaths?TheofficialGerman
figuresshowacasefatality
rate from thediseaseof0.5%,
whil ethose from Italy show a
shockinglyhigh rate of around
9%. Britain,like China,seemstobesomewhere
in th emiddl e. Thisis, in part,justastatistical
mirage. Germanyhas testedvery large numbers
for infection;themore people aretested,the
more thenumber of cases increases,thus
reducingthe fatalityrate. Italy,by contrast,
thinks its realnumber of casesis aroundten
timesthe officialtally :morethan 600,000.
Italy appears to have suffered grievouslybecause
of itssocial“matrix”, saidVirginia Pietromarchi
on Al Jazeera. It ha sthe secondoldest
populationinthe world,after Japan; 85%
of those whohavediedhavebeenover 70.
In addition,elderly Italians tend to live and
socialise withthe younger generation, whoare
morelikely tosufferonly mild
symptoms,and spreadthe virus
totheirfamilies. Germanyhas
arelativelyoldpopulation,too,
saidPhilip OltermanninThe
Guardian.But,likemost
nationsthathavedealtwiththe
virus effectively–SouthKorea,
forinstance–ithas testedon
alarge scale and aggressively
tracedcontacts with infected
people. Germanyalso hasmore
than twiceItaly’snumberof
acute hospital bedsper capita.
Its hospitals“are not yet at full capacity” and
havehad more timetoprepare themselves.The worry for Britain is that it is simply
followingItaly’supwardcurve atadistance,said
Ian Sample in the same paper. “Thedeath toll
in B ritain is roughly two weeks behindthat of
Italy.”In week ten of this year, ending6March,
Italy announced 176 newCovid-19 deaths,
comparabletothe 166deathsthe U Kreported
in week12. Ourpopulationisconsiderably
youngerthanItaly’s,and we havealso hadmore
tim etoready ourselves.With luck,we maybe
on aless steeptrajectory, but it’s simply too
soon to tell. Itwon’tbeuntil mid-April that
we know howBritain is weatheringthe st orm.Afuneral in LombardyStatisticsofthe week
Around 15% of the UK
workforce–around five
million people–isself-
employed, up from 7.3%
in 1980.
Around half of all food sold
in the UK is imported.
About 30% of the country’s
food is normally eaten out
in cafés, restaurants and
sandwich shops.
The TimesWit &Wisdom