34 Europe The EconomistMarch 28th 2020
2 pletely. Economists are forecasting that
gdpwill shrink by up to 15%, depending on
how long the emergency lasts. Much of that
will not be recovered. “Tourists who come
later on won’t eat two dinners a night,” says
Toni Roldán of Esade-EcPol, a think-tank.
The government has unveiled an aid
package worth up to €200bn (around 16.5%
of gdp), half in credit guarantees and €17bn
in extra spending on health services and
income support. It has guaranteed that
workers temporarily laid off (some 1.5m so
far) will get unemployment benefit. That
will not help the 2.5m workers on short-
term contracts or the 3.7m self-employed.
Officials say they are working on measures
for these groups. “The key issue is immedi-
acy,” says Mr Roldán.
How is all this to be paid for? The fiscal
deficit could swell to 10% of gdpthis year,
and, with interest costs rising, push public
debt to 120%. No wonder Mr Sánchez is
pushing hard for the euto help out, such as
by issuing “coronabonds”.
By common consent the government,
an inexperienced and uneasy coalition be-
tween the Socialists and far-left Podemos,
erred in its tardy reaction to the virus. In
what now seems another world, ministers
were fixated on healing their divisions
with a big feminist demonstration on
March 8th. But since the start of the state of
emergency, which centralised policing and
health services, Mr Sánchez has seemed
more sure-footed.
His critics have their own difficulties.
The conservative People’s Party (pp) has
oscillated between loyalty and sniping. It
runs the Madrid regional government,
which was more aggressive than others in
cutting health spending and privatising
some provision. Quim Torra, the separatist
head of the Catalan government, called for
the “total confinement” of his region, but
has failed to handle the virus well. In a poll
this month his was the only region where
respondents gave higher marks to the cen-
tral government than their local one.Mr Sánchez has made verbose and repe-
titious televised speeches, much mocked
by opponents. But many Spaniards like the
fact that he is engaging with the problem
and with them, says Charles Powell of the
Elcano Royal Institute, a think-tank. Span-
iards have generally been more disciplined
than other Europeans in observing the
lockdown. “There’s an element of Spanish
patriotism, not nationalism, in this,” says
Mr Powell. “My prediction is that Sánchez
will come out of it looking stronger.” 75,00010,000
1,000Breaking out all over
Spain, covid-19 cases, 2020Source: Ministry of Health, Consumption and Social WelfareMarch 11th March 25thGaliciaMadridCastile & León
AragónBasque
CountryAndalucíaExtremadura
Castile-
La ManchaCantabria
NavarreLa RiojaAsturiasMurciaCatalonia
Balearics
ValenciaCanariesCeuta MelillaA
new pastimehas emerged among peo-
ple stuck at home: obsessively tracking
how their country’s covid-19 death toll
compares with those of their neighbours.
Some divide the deaths by the number of
reported cases of the disease to get a sup-
posed fatality rate. That, in turn, often
leads to the premature conclusion that
some European countries are spectacularly
better than others at keeping people with
covid-19 alive.
Take Italy and Germany. On March 25th
Italy had recorded 74,386 cases of covid-19
and 7,503 deaths, the highest number in the
world. Germany’s tally that day stood at
37,323 cases and just 206 deaths. Going by
these figures, the fatality rate would seem
to be around 20 times higher in Italy than
in Germany. In fact, this is a spurious num-
ber, for several reasons.
First, in any country the number of con-
firmed covid-19 cases is an unknown frac-
tion of the actual number of cases. Both Ita-
ly and Germany have been testing lots ofpeople. In Germany, where different doc-
tors and regions have different practices as
to whom they test, accurate national fig-
ures on the number of tests done are hard
to verify. That makes comparing the two
countries tricky. But the broad consensus
seems to be that there has been a greater
degree of testing in Germany, meaning that
it is spotting more mild cases of the disease
than Italy. Severe ones end up in hospital,
where they are obviously easy to count.
What is clearer is that the first wave of
covid-19 infections in Italy was predomi-
nantly among older people, who are far
more likely to die than younger people,
even with the best of care. The median age
of those diagnosed with covid-19 in Italy is
63 years, compared with 47 in Germany.
The two countries have a similar share of
older people in the general population. But
only 20% of cases reported in Germany are
people aged over 60, compared with 56% of
those in Italy. The early German cases seem
to have contracted the disease at carnivals
and ski-resorts, which explains why the
initial profile is so young.
Another reason why Italy’s death rate
looks much higher is that its epidemic be-
gan earlier. Covid-19 deaths lag behind in-
fections by several weeks. That means that
for quite a time the disease can spread un-
noticed. Italy’s first deaths were on Febru-
ary 22nd, Germany’s two weeks later. So a
large number of Germans who are already
infected will become sicker and die in the
coming days and weeks. That is starting to
happen. On March 23rd Germany’s cumu-
lative number of covid-19 deaths jumped
by 56%; the next day’s increase was 33%.
Lastly, Italy’s deaths would not be so nu-
merous if its covid-19 patients had not
overwhelmed its hospitals. The country’s
epidemic has been concentrated in the
Lombardy region, whereas Germany’s
cases have been distributed more broadly
across several hotspots. As the disease
spreads in both countries, it will become
clearer whether the German health system
really is so much better than Italy’s at keep-
ing covid-19 patients alive. 7BERLIN
Is Germany really better than Italy at
treating covid-19?Italy, Germany and the virusA numbers game
Eighteen days later
Confirmed covid-19 deaths
To March 25th 2020, log scaleSource: Johns Hopkins CSSEItaly
(from Feb 26th)Germany
(from Mar 15th)Days since tenth death10,0001,00010010
292520151051