6 Special reportThe African century The EconomistMarch 28th 2020
1“W
hat’s nigeria’ssecond city?” asks Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala,
an irrepressible economist and former finance minister of
Nigeria, before chuckling: “London!” She is exaggerating (about
200,000 people who were born in Nigeria live in Britain) but she
has a point: one of the most powerful trends shaping Africa, and
the wider world, is migration. There are three different types: to
the West, within Africa and from countryside to city. All are help-
ing make the continent richer and better educated.
Although many talk about waves of African migrants crossing
into Europe, the numbers are still modest. Just 2.5% of Africans, or
about 36m people, live abroad, compared with a global average of
about 3.4%. Of those, less than half leave the continent.
Even so, African migrants generate a disproportionate share of
headlines in rich countries. This is partly because nearly half of
those who died crossing the Mediterranean during the height of
the “migrant crisis” of 2015 were sub-Saharan Africans. But it is
also because populist politicians have stoked fear of migration in
many countries. In South Africa, which is home to about 2.2m
mostly African migrants, politicians accuse foreigners of taking
jobs and committing crimes. This rabble-rousing has led to repeat-
ed bouts of anti-foreigner rioting. Matteo Salvini, a former deputy
prime minister of Italy, banned rescue ships carrying migrants
from Italian waters, and Donald Trump has severely restricted im-
migration from several African countries including Nigeria.
But it is also because of concerns that the numbers of African
migrants will rise dramatically. In 2017 the Pew Research Centreasked people in several African countries whether they would
move to another country if they could. About three-quarters in
Ghana and Nigeria said they would. So did more than half of Ken-
yans and South Africans. The reason is simple. The average earn-
ings of African migrants to Europe is $1,020 a month, three times
the pay back home, says the undp. One reason more people do not
move is the high cost charged by people smugglers—on average
about $2,400 for men and $3,900 for women—up to 20 times me-
dian monthly earnings in the countries they leave. Over the decade
to 2017 about 1m Africans migrated to Europe. As Africa grows rich-
er more people will be able to move, and migration will probably
increase, argues Sir Paul Collier, a development economist.
Even if Africa’s migration rates were simply to rise to the global
average, its fast-growing population would mean tens of millions
of people would be on the move. This would be no bad thing.
Though more rich countries seem to be putting up barriers, with-
out migration Europe’s population is forecast to fall by about 10%
by 2050. It is also ageing: for every 100 people of working age, there
would be 118 retirees and children by 2060. Germany alone would
need 500,000 migrants a year to offset its demographic decline.
Stephen Smith, who wrote a book on migration, worries that it
is draining Africa of its educated young. Yet that overlooks the
many benefits of migration, including how it is helping increase
skills and education within Africa.
The easiest benefits to measure are the remittances that mi-
grants send home. Nigeria, for instance, got $24.3bn in 2018 from
its citizens working abroad, a 24% increase over 2016 and about
eight times more than it receives in development aid. That is also
more than ten times what Nigeria got in foreign investment in- Senegalese working in Spain send back as much as half of
their earnings (helping remittances make up 9% of Senegal’s na-
tional income). Not only are such flows far larger than aid, they are
also often better spent. A big chunk of aid budgets goes on admin-
istration and buying four-wheel-drive cars for aid workers, but
most of what migrants send goes directly to recipients (though,
scandalously, fees charged by money agents can gobble up to a
fifth of the cash). It is also often invested in education, housing
and businesses. In Ghana children in families who get help from a
relative abroad are 54% more likely to attend secondary school.
Lower fees on money transfers could boost private spending on
education by about $1bn a year, reckons unesco.
Rather than draining the continent of skills, migration shows
those at home the benefits of an education, encouraging more
people to go to school. About 400,000 Africans study at universi-
ties abroad, making up about a tenth of all foreign students world-
wide (about the same number as China sent to study abroad in
2005 and about half as many as India does today). In 1960 when the
Democratic Republic of Congo gained its independence the whole
country had fewer than 30 university graduates. Now it has about
12,000 students studying at foreign universities.
This means that large numbers of bright youngsters are getting
exposed to societies that are often more democratic, less corrupt
and with more productive business environments than those they
grew up in. Research supports the idea that migrants in democrat-
ic societies help promote democracy back
home. One study of Senegalese living in
America and France found that many were
urging their family members to register to
vote in elections. Another study, this time
in Mali, found that returning migrants
were more likely to vote. Their civic-mind-
edness seems infectious. Voter turnout
rises even among non-migrants in neigh-
bourhoods with returnees. The diaspora
also provides a haven for the opposition.
Young, bright and
on the move
Upping sticks is good not just for individuals but for development
and democracy, tooMigrationMigrants in
democratic
societies help
promote democ-
racy back home