40 China The EconomistMarch 28th 2020
V
ictory is aperilous moment for a guerrilla army. Over years of
civil war, revolutionaries become experts at raids, ambushes
and subversion behind enemy lines. Then one day a foe melts
away, giving up a great city or miles of precious terrain and setting
insurgents a different challenge: how will you govern, now this is
yours? In 1949 the peaceful fall of ancient, palace-filled Peiping, as
Beijing was then officially known, daunted even Mao Zedong.
Comparing his troops to scholars summoned to sit entrance tests
for the imperial civil service, he mused: “Today we’re heading into
the capital to take the big test... All of us have to make the grade.”
Today, a new victory is in sight. For decades when a pandemic
or other worldwide scourge has struck, the response has been co-
ordinated by rich Western countries led by America, occupying the
high ground of global leadership in a mixture of altruism and
bossy self-interest. Now, under President Donald Trump, America
is abandoning that terrain. Take Chinese propaganda outlets at
face value, and China is ready to advance and take the ground.
Some may object that Communist Party chiefs have a nerve to
seek praise for their response to covid-19. After all, Chinese offi-
cials spent several disastrous weeks silencing doctors and con-
cealing test results, and letting millions leave Wuhan, the city
where the illness was first seen. That cover-up will forever colour
judgments of what came next: a mass mobilisation of hundreds of
millions of Chinese to tame a first wave of infections. Yet bungling
by foreign leaders, and above all by Mr Trump, has handed the Chi-
nese government a chance to recover. Plenty of ordinary citizens
remain angry about early missteps in Wuhan. But many of the
same citizens cheer reports of China’s delivery of medical supplies
and advice to more than 80 countries, and gasp at news of rising
death tolls in Italy, Britain and America.
Small wonder that a cottage industry has sprung up in the West,
churning out essays arguing that Mr Trump is creating a vacuum
that China is poised to fill, as the covid-19 pandemic reshapes the
world order. There is something to this. China’s best scientists are
sprinting to create a covid-19 vaccine. If they win that race (and
good luck to them), brace for a torrent of global commentary com-
paring this to the Soviet launch of Sputnik, the first satellite. It is
sobering to watch foreign leaders, from Serbia’s president to Hun-gary’s prime minister and Italy’s foreign minister, loudly thanking
China for medical supplies and teams of doctors while chiding
European neighbours for abandoning them (never mind that some
of those supplies were sold by China, not donated).
For all that, it remains unclear whether China wants to occupy
newly vacant positions of global leadership—if that involves ac-
cepting multilateral rules and norms that might constrain its ac-
tions in the future. China seeks thanks and respect for its virus re-
sponse. It is happy to see covid-19 weaken rivals like America. But it
is worth noting what it has and has not achieved during this pan-
demic. China has long had a genius for befriending countries and
leaders who are shunned by mainstream peers. The pro-Chinese
leaders of Serbia and Hungary are also autocratic admirers of Rus-
sia, whose ties with the European Union are fractious. Recruiting
foreign leaders to be “friends of China” is not the same as having an
appealing model—a Chinese Way—to offer the world.
During this crisis China has made several moves that pay do-
mestic dividends but make no sense for a country that hopes to
win hearts and minds abroad. In particular, official media, backed
by Chinese diplomats with Twitter accounts and a taste for
nationalist provocation, have promoted offensive, often contra-
dictory conspiracy theories about the origins of the virus. State
media have publicised a quote from an Italian scientist, recalling
cases of a strange pneumonia circulating before covid-19 was iden-
tified in China, and insinuating that this reveals that the virus be-
gan in Italy, not China. The scientist has since clarified that he be-
lieves that the virus is “without a doubt” from China, fuming about
Chinese “propaganda”. Too late. A Chinese internet hashtag about
covid-19’s history in Italy has been viewed almost half a billion
times. At the same time Chinese netizens have seized on a rival
theory pushed by foreign-ministry provocateurs—though it is un-
supported by any evidence—that covid-19 somehow escaped from
an American military laboratory and was carried to China by
American athletes competing in a military sports tournament in
Wuhan. Depressingly, lots of Chinese netizens are unfazed by the
flimsiness of these theories, some of which have been obliquely
disowned by China’s ambassador to America. Convinced that
America is a dirty fighter intent on keeping China down, online
nationalists have a bleaker goal: get some low blows in first.When in doubt, blame foreigners
Sowing distrust and division abroad is a risky game for China. An-
other master of disinformation, Russia, can sell its oil and gas even
amid global chaos. As a would-be tech superpower that has profit-
ed mightily from globalisation, China has much to lose from a
world which cannot agree on basic facts. The nasty side of China’s
virus diplomacy has political costs, too. European governments
may often be appalled by Mr Trump. But in a commentary pub-
lished on March 23rd the eu’s foreign-policy chief, Josep Borrell,
described China’s aggressive messaging in a global battle of narra-
tives over covid-19, and pointedly chided powers that seek geopo-
litical advantage by spinning the “politics of generosity”.
China may emerge from this crisis stronger in relative terms,
and less willing than ever to be criticised or thwarted. But beware
simple predictions about vacuums being filled. The West may lose
ground that China prefers not to fill. As Mao understood, an ene-
my’s retreat is a test as well as an opportunity. True global leader-
ship may require China to ditch its love of ambiguity and cynical
opportunism, and spell out what it really believes and wants. If
that is the test, the hard men who run China may prefer to skip it. 7Chaguan No shining city on a hill
China’s blame-shifting over covid-19 sits uneasily with claims to be a responsible great power