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THEWEEK 21 March 2020The main stories...
OECDtablesofsparebedsperhead.
Butwhileitusuallydoesn’tmakesense
tohavetoomuchsparecapacityina
healthservice,theNHS’sefficient
systemisnottheone“you’ddesign
totackleseriouspandemics”.Withluck,theswitchtoanaggressive
strategyofcontainmentwillease
pressureontheNHS,saidSaloni
DattanionUnHerd,butit’s“hugely
unfortunate”thattheUKdidn’t
introducethesemeasuresearlier.It
wouldhavepreventedmanypeople
catchingadiseasethatis,bysome
estimates,abouttentimesmorelethal
thaninfluenza.TheGovernment’s
suddenchangeoftackhasinevitably
raisedquestionsaboutitsgriponthis
crisis,saidTheTimes.Itsapproach
totestinghasbeenparticularly
inconsistent.Fromthestartofthe
pandemic,theWorldHealthOrganisationhasstressedthe
importance of tracing and isolating infectedindividuals. “We
haveasimple message for all countries: test,test, test,” its
director-generalrepeated thisweek.Yet Britain’scriteriafor
testing keeps shifting:first it tested thosewith mild symptoms,
thenjust severecasesrequiringhospitalisation, and now it has
extended therangeagain.At
the start of thisweek, we were
testing4,000new suspected
casesaday, whereasSouth
Korea wastesting20,000.There arequestionstobeasked about whythe Government
didn’t increase testing capacity earlier, and whyit hasonly
now putout urgent orders formore ventilators,said John
Rentoul in TheIndependent. Andit hasn’talways been good
at communicatingits policyclearly:forinstance, the PM’s
comment earlierthisweek thatschools would remainopen
“forall sortsof reasons” was unhelpful.But weshouldn’t
be tooharsh onBorisJohnson.He’s dealing with an
unprecedented situationand “changingscientific advice”.
Governmentsacross theworldare strugglingwith this
problem, saidKatyBalls in the Inewspaper,andnone have
yet solved it.“Even incountrieswherethe rateof infection
is beingstemmed,it isseenas astickingplasteruntil avaccine
emerges and normal life can resume.”We’reinuncharted
waters,agreed Leon McKinstry inthe Daily Express. As
Professor Graham Medley,adistinguished expert on infectious
diseases,put itrecently:“Anyone whotells you theyknow
what is going to happen in the next sixmonths is wrong.”“Britainhasfinallydeclaredwaron
Covid-19,”saidTheGuardian.Ina
dramaticannouncementthisweek,
BorisJohnsonintroducedmanyofthe
drastic“socialdistancing”measures
alreadyimposedinothercountries
(seeopposite).TheGovernmentalso
promisedtomakeatleast£330bn–
15%ofGDP–availabletounderwrite
cheapbusinessloans(seepage 4 ).
Theseurgentstepscomenotamoment
toosoon.Sinceitfoundahumanhost
somewhereintheChinesecityof
Wuhanafewmonthsago,thenew
strainofcoronavirushascausedmore
than2 00 ,0 00 casesofCovid-19,and
morethan8,000deaths,aroundthe
world.Europeisnowofficiallythe
centreoftheglobalpandemic.Across
thecontinent,gatheringshavebeen
cancelledandstatesofemergency
declared.Francehasbannedpeoplefrom
leavinghomeforallbutessentialjourneys,andtheEUhas
closeditsexternalborders foratleast amonth.The Governmenthas “pivoted”, saidPaul Nuki inThe Daily
Telegraph.Until this week, it waspursuingamarkedlymore
relaxedapproach than manyother nations, with the apparent
aimof merelyslowingthe
spreadofthe virus while
the nation graduallybuilt
up“herd immunity”through
mass infection. Butit hasnow
movedto astrategy ofoutrightsuppression.What changed its
mind was newdata fromItalianand British hospitals showing
thatthe intensivecarerequirementsofthedisease are much
higher thanthe NHS had previously assumed. Thelatest
evidence suggests that 30%of patients hospitalised with
Covid-19will require critical care.Health officials warned
thatwithoutanational lockdownto suppress newinfections,
intensivecareunitswould becompletely overwhelmed,
leadingtoasmanyas 260,000deaths. Asitis, they hope
casualtiesintheUK canbelimitedtoaround 20,000.TheUKhasrelatively few hospitalbeds perhead compared to
othernations,said StephenBushinthe New Statesman. This
is oftencited asproof ofrecentNHS underfunding,but it has
longbeen thecase,even attimes ofhigher funding.Under
normalcircumstances, it isactuallyagood thing,asign that
hospital beds are beingefficientlyallocated. Othernations
with universal healthcare systems, such as Denmark,New
Zealand and Sweden, also tend tobe near thebottom ofThe virus: Britain heads into uncharted waters
COVER CARTOON: HOWARD MCWILLIAMIt wasn’t all bad
McDonald’s is to stop putting
plastic toys in Happy Meals.
Instead, the children’s meals
will from next year come with
eitherasoft toy,abook or a
paper-based toy. The planned
change is the chain’s single
biggest plastic reduction to
date, and will save 3,000 tonnes
of plasticayear in the UK
alone. The chain will also run a
“toy amnesty”: customers will
bring unwanted plastic toys
into its stores; McDonald’s will
then recycle them to make play
equipment for its charity.All over the country, people have been rallying to
help the elderly and vulnerable in their communities
who may be struggling in the crisis. Thousands
have offered their services–todeliver groceries, or
just haveachatonthe phone–tovarious support
groups that have started online; others have
volunteered with charities and churches.Awoman
in Cornwall has designedacard that people can
print out and post through their neighbours’ doors,
offering help if they’re self-isolating. “Because fear
has spread so quickly, it’s really important to try
to spread kindness,” said Becky Wass, 32.
In Spain and Italy last week, millions of people
confined to their homes by lockdowns leaned out of their windows and stood on their balconies to
give amass roundofapplause to their countries’ medical workers. In Italy, people have also been
singing and playing musical instruments on their balconies, solo and in unison, to keep everyone’s
spirits up. Videos shared online this week showed crowds of people singing classic folk songs, the
national anthem, and in Florence, the opera singer Maurizio Marchini singingNessun Dorma.“By some estimates, the disease is about
ten times more lethal than influenza”BorisJohnson:anunprecedentedsituation©SCIENCE PICTURE LIBRARY