The Wall Street Journal - 28.03.2020 - 29.03.2020

A2| Saturday/Sunday, March 28 - 29, 2020 **** THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.

U.S. NEWS

overwhelmed, they predict.

Suppressing the virus, ac-

cording to their model,

would require population-

wide social distancing com-

bined with home isolation of

people with symptoms and

school and university clos-

ings. The interventions

would need to begin before

hospitals become over-

whelmed and remain in place

for at least five months—

perhaps longer.

Abandoning the strategy

before a vaccine or other

treatment is developed and

administered, they warn,

could allow the pandemic to

rebound.

The evidence of that po-

tential outcome is the 1918

flu pandemic, when trans-

missions resurged after in-

terventions were lifted.

The researchers acknowl-

edge there are many uncer-

tainties, but they believe this

strategy is the one most

likely to ensure new infec-

tions won’t exceed U.S. and

U.K. hospitals’ critical-care

capacity—although they de-

clined to estimate how many

people might still die if

these precautions are taken.

“That’s just too difficult to

give a clear answer to at the

present time,” said Steven

Riley, a professor of infec-

tious-disease dynamics at

Imperial College London who

THE NUMBERS|By Jo Craven McGinty

What Will It Take to Flatten the Curve?

By now
you’ve heard
the phrase
“flatten the
curve.”
It refers to
the quest to slow transmis-
sions of Covid-19 so the ac-
cumulating number of infec-
tions looks like a gentle
slope instead of a vertigi-
nous spike.
The matter is urgent, ac-
cording to infectious-disease
experts who’ve modeled
strategies to curb the
spread. Reining in the virus,
they say, requires immediate
and drastic social distancing.
To be effective, the interven-
tions must last for months—
not just days or weeks—and
to avoid overloading hospi-
tals, they must cut transmis-
sions by more than half.
If instead the virus is al-
lowed to multiply unchecked,
a deluge of patients is ex-
pected to overwhelm health-
care systems that aren’t
equipped to handle the num-
ber of people who will need
treatment.
Already, the U.S. has con-
firmed more than 100,
cases, a figure that has dou-
bled or tripled every three
days for nearly a month.
With widespread trans-
missions, even a fraction of
critically ill patients could
strain hospitals. Experts at
Imperial College London in

collaboration with the World

Health Organization project

that 4.4% of Covid-19 infec-

tions will require hospital-

ization. Of that number, 30%

will need critical care, such

as a ventilator. And half of

the critically ill patients will

die.

I

n the absence of inter-

ventions, that means 2.

million Americans and

510,000 Britons could die,

according to the projections,

with hospitals’ critical-care

capacity exceeded as early as

the second week of April.

“The world is facing the

most serious public health

crisis in generations,” Neil

Ferguson, director of Impe-

rial College’s MRC Centre for

Global Infectious Disease

Analysis, said in a statement.

(He developed symptoms

last week and self-isolated.)

The Imperial College re-

searchers evaluated two

strategies to flatten the

curve: mitigation focused on

slowing but not stopping the

virus’s spread and suppres-

sion aimed at reducing the

average number of person-

to-person transmissions to

less than one. (It’s currently

around 2.2.)

Only suppression—the

most disruptive interven-

tion—would prevent the

health-care systems in the

U.S. and U.K. from being

worked on the analysis. “If

we look at China, they have

achieved very low levels of

incidence, so we would fore-

cast very few deaths in the

near future.”

T

he less aggressive

strategy of mitigation

modeled by the re-

searchers calls for home iso-

lation of people with symp-

toms of Covid-19, voluntary

home quarantine of con-

firmed cases, and social dis-

tancing of people older than

70 (the group most at risk).

Policies for isolation and

quarantine would endure for

three months, while require-

ments for social distancing

of those over age of 70

would remain in place for

one month longer.

If this were done, the re-

searchers predicted around

1.1 million Americans and

250,000 Britons would die,

and demand for hospital

critical-care beds would ex-

ceed the supply by a factor

of eight.

“Perhaps our most signifi-

cant conclusion is that miti-

gation is unlikely to be feasi-

ble without emergency

surge-capacity limits of the

U.K. and U.S. health-care sys-

tems being exceeded many

times over,” the researchers

wrote in their analysis.

They acknowledge that no

public-health intervention as

disruptive or enduring as

what they recommend has

been attempted previously,

and they didn’t analyze the

social or economic hardships

such extreme measures

might cause.

But one way to reduce the

disruption, they said, would

be to implement adaptive re-

strictions that are eased or

tightened as transmissions

of the virus ebb and flow, us-

ing the number of cases at

any given time as a trigger

to switch interventions on or

off.

In a study published this

week, researchers at Harvard

T.H. Chan School of Public

Health who examined inter-

mittent distancing found

that an “on” threshold of

37.5 cases per 10,000 people

would keep the number of

critical-care patients below

0.89 per 10,000 adults.

“The need for intense so-

cial distancing is very

strong,” said Marc Lipsitch,

a professor of epidemiology

at Harvard T.H. Chan School

of Public Health who con-

tributed to the work. “People

who get infected today take

an average of around three

weeks before they are sick

enough to need intensive

care, if they’re going to get

that sick.”

We have to act now, he

said, to protect ourselves

three weeks from now.

Interventionssuchasbanningpublicgatheringscanspreadout

apandemic,preventinghospitalsfrombeingoverloaded.

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Numberofdailycases

Dayssincefirstcase

0

CapacityofU.S.

health-caresystem

Without intervention

With

intervention

U.S. WATCH

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

(USPS 664-880) (Eastern Edition ISSN 0099-9660)

(Central Edition ISSN 1092-0935) (Western Edition ISSN 0193-2241)

Editorial and publication headquarters:1211 Avenue of the Americas, New York, N.Y. 10036

Published daily except Sundays and general legal holidays. Periodicals postage paid at New York, N.Y.,

and other mailing offices. Regular one-year U.S. subscription rates: print/digital edition $539.88.

Postmaster: Send address changes to The Wall Street Journal,

200 Burnett Rd., Chicopee, MA 01020.

All Advertising published in The Wall Street Journal is subject to the applicable rate card, copies of

which are available from the Advertising Services Department, Dow Jones & Co. Inc., 1211 Avenue of the

Americas, New York, N.Y. 10036. The Journal reserves the right not to accept an advertiser’s order. Only

publication of an advertisement shall constitute finalacceptance of the advertiser’s order.

Letters to the Editor:Fax: 212-416-2891; email: [email protected]

Need assistance with your subscription?

By web: customercenter.wsj.com; By email: [email protected]

By phone: 1-800-JOURNAL (1-800-568-7625)

Reprints & licensing:

By email: [email protected]

By phone: 1-800-843-

WSJ back issues and framed pages:wsjshop.com

Our newspapers are 100% sourced from sustainably certified mills.

GOT A TIP FOR US? SUBMIT IT AT WSJ.COM/TIPS

The State Departmentof-

fered a total of $60 million for

the arrest and capture of sev-

eral people charged with drug

trafficking and conspiring with

terrorists: $15 million for Vene-

zuelan President Nicolás Ma-

duro, $10 million for each of

four other top current and for-

mer officials, and $5 million for

a senior member of the Revolu-

tionary Armed Forces of Co-

lombia, or FARC. In some edi-

tions Friday, a World News

article about the charges incor-

rectly said the State Depart-

ment offered a total of $65 mil-

lion for the arrest and capture

of Mr. Maduro and four current

and former officials.

Dave Matthewswas booked

for a live-stream performance

on Twitter on Thursday, March

26. A Life & Arts article Thurs-
    day about what to watch incor-
    rectly said the performance
    was scheduled for Wednesday.

Readers can alert The Wall Street Journal to any errors in news articles by

[email protected] by calling 888-410-2667.

CORRECTIONS AMPLIFICATIONS

NEW YORK CITY

Subway Operator

Dies; Arson Possible

A New York City subway op-
erator was killed and 16 passen-
gers injured early Friday in a
train-car fire under investigation
as one in a string of possible ar-
sons in subway stations, police
officials said.
Police, paramedics and fire-
fighters responded to 911 calls
reporting the fire on a north-
bound 2 train at the 110th
Street subway station at Lenox
Avenue in Manhattan’s Harlem
neighborhood just after 3 a.m.,
according to transit and New
York Police Department officials.
Heavy smoke and fire was re-
ported coming from the second
car of the train, NYPD Deputy
Chief Brian McGee said.
After Fire Department of
New York firefighters put out
the fire, officers tended to three
men and one woman suffering
from smoke inhalation. A 36-
year-old man identified as a
train operator by transit officials
was discovered on the tracks
and taken to Mount Sinai Hospi-
tal, where he was pronounced
dead.
Arson investigators are prob-
ing several other fires at three
other subway stations, according
to police officials.
—Ben Chapman

petent to stand trial.

Marinette County Court Judge

James Morrison ruled Thursday

that Raymand Vannieuwenhoven

didn’t understand the proceedings

and couldn’t assist in his own de-

fense against two counts of first-

degree murder.

Mr. Vannieuwenhoven was

charged last year in the fatal

shootings of David Schuldes, 25,

and Ellen Matheys, 24, in Silver

Cliff, about 200 miles north of Mil-

waukee. Investigators didn’t have

any major leads until 2018, when

a Virginia lab identified the genea-

logical background of the suspect.

—Associated Press

TEXAS

Man Is Accused

Of Threatening Pelosi

A Texas man remained jailed

Friday on federal charges that

he made online posts threaten-

ing Democrats, including U.S.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Gavin Perry, 27, of Wichita

Falls, was charged Wednesday

with transmitting a threatening

communication in interstate

commerce. Prosecutors said he

wrote on Facebook that Demo-

crats, including Rep. Pelosi, “will

be removed at any cost neces-

sary and yes that means by

death.” Court records didn’t list a

lawyer who could speak for him.

—Associated Press

GEORGIA

GolferLove’sHome

Is Destroyed in Fire

The house of Hall of Fame

golfer Davis LoveIII was de-

stroyed by fire Friday morning in

a blaze that couldn’t be con-

trolled, even with 16 firefighters

arriving within minutes, the fire

chief said. No one was injured.

Mr. Love, a former PGA

champion and two-time Ryder

Cup captain, is one of the most

prominent figures at Sea Island.

It is part of the “Golden Isles”

about 40 miles north of the

Florida state line. He runs a PGA

Tour event at Sea Island Golf

Club, and the area is home to

several PGA Tour players.

Glynn County Fire Chief R.K.

Jordan says the emergency call

was placed from the horse barn

at Mr. Love’s house at 5:18 a.m.

—Associated Press

WISCONSIN

Defendant Unfit for

Trial in 1976 Killings

A judge ruled that an 83-

year-old man charged with killing

a camping couple in a Wisconsin

park in 1976 isn’t mentally com-

The St. Simons Island, Ga., home of Hall of Fame golfer DavisLove III wasdestroyed by fireearly Friday morning. No injuries were reported.

KYLE JURGENS//GLYNN COUNTY FIRE DEPARTMENT/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Bernier, a senior sales man-
ager. She said the mint has re-
ceived “unprecedented levels
of demand,” largely from U.S.
banks and brokers.
The price of gold futures
rose about 9% to roughly
$1,620 a troy ounce this
week—that is 31.
grams, per the U.K. Royal
Mint—and neared a seven-year
high. Only on a handful of oc-
casions since 2000 have gold
prices risen more in a single
week, including immediately
after Lehman Brothers filed for
bankruptcy in September 2008.
“When people think they
can’t get something, they want
it even more,” says George
Gero, 83, who’s been trading
gold for more than 50 years,
now at RBC Wealth Manage-
ment in New York. “Look at
toilet paper.”
Gold has been prized for
thousands of years and today
goes into items ranging from
jewelry to dental crowns to
electronics. For decades, the
value of paper money was
pinned to gold; tons of it sat in
Fort Knox to reassure Ameri-
cans their dollars were worth

ContinuedfromPageOne

something. Today they just

have to trust. President Nixon

unpegged the dollar from gold

in 1971.

The government still holds

lots of gold in Fort Knox,

though not as much as it did

decades ago. The Federal Re-

serve Bank of New York has a

massive gold stash. That gold

isn’t released on the open mar-

ket, though; it’s held as na-

tional reserve. London is the

hub of physical gold trading

that often changes hands.

Gold is popular with surviv-

alists and conspiracy theorists

but it is also a sensible addi-

tion to investment portfolios

because its price tends to be

relatively stable. It is espe-

cially in-demand during eco-

nomic crises as a shield

against inflation. When the

Federal Reserve floods the

economy with cash, like it is

doing now, dollars can get less

valuable.

“Gold is the one money that

can’t be printed,” said Roy Se-

bag, CEO of Goldmoney Inc.,

which has one of the world’s

largest private stashes, worth

about $2 billion. (He’d rather

not say where, for obvious rea-

sons.)

There are two ways to own

gold: in bars or coins or jew-

elry stored in bank vaults, or

in futures contracts traded on

an exchange, which guarantee

the holder a certain amount of

gold at a certain price on a

certain date.

Those contracts trade on

CME Group Inc.’s Comex divi-

sion of the New York Mercan-

tile Exchange. The problem?

Much of the world’s gold is in

London and has been since the

17th century, when the Bank of

England set up a vault.

Today, the Bank of England

says it has the second-largest

collection of gold in its vault,

behind only the New York Fed.

The disruptions this week

pushed the gold futures price,

on the New York exchange, as

much as $70 an ounce above

the price of physical gold in

London. Typically, the two

trade within a few dollars of

each other.

That gulf sparked a high-

stakes game of chicken in the

New York futures market this

week. Sharp-eyed traders

started snapping up physical

delivery contracts, figuring

banks would have trouble find-

ing enough gold to make good

and they would be able to

squeeze them for cash. That

set off a scramble by banks.

Goldmoney’s Mr. Sebag said

bankers were offering him

$100 or more per ounce over

the London price to get their

hands on some of his New

York gold.

Wade Brennan, a former

gold trader at Scotiabank who

now runs an investment firm

called Kilo Capital, said he had

heard from bankers in the U.S.

who were literally checking the

corners of their vaults for any

gold that might have been

overlooked. “Everyone’s looking

through the cupboard,” he said.

Getting gold to New York,

where it can be sent on to gold

dealers, jewelers, dentists and

electronics makers, is a heavy

lift in the best of times, and, it

turns out, quite tricky during a

pandemic.

Most gold bars are stowed

in the cargo hold of passenger

planes. Security firms such as

Loomis Group, which arrange

the flights and meet planes on

the tarmac, don’t like to move

more than about five tons on

any flight, in case the plane

crashes and because of high

insurance costs. From there,

the haul is trucked under

heavyguardtoNewYork

warehouses.

For those able to deliver,

there is big money to be made.

In normal times, it costs

around 20 cents to fly an

ounce of gold, just under 20

cents to melt the bars down

and refabricate them to match

New York’s delivery standards,

and another 10 cents or so in

financing costs, according to a

retired senior gold trader.

(London bars are heavier than

those in demand in New York.)

So if New York prices are $

an ounce higher than in Lon-

don, a bank can make $80,

moving five metric tons of

gold—almost risk-free. At

Tuesday’s prices, the same

load would net $11 million in

profit, minus the cost of char-

tering the jet.

——Anna Isaac, Jacquie

McNish and Alistair

MacDonald contributed to

this article.

Global

Gold Rush

Is On