PROJECTED
CLIMATE-RELATED
DAMAGES IN THE U.S.,
2080–2099CHANGE IN GDP PER CAPITA BY 2100 COMPARED
WITH A WORLD WITHOUT CLIMATE CHANGETOTAL DAMAGES (% COUNTY INCOME)- 0% 5% 10% 30%
SOURCE: “ESTIMATING ECONOMIC DAMAGE FROM CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE UNITED STATES” BY HSIANG, KOPP, JINA, RISING, DELGADO, MOHAN,
RASMUSSEN, MUIR-WOOD, WILSON, OPPENHEIMER, LARSEN, HOUSER (SCIENCE, 2017).
ANNUAL DAMAGES IN MEDIAN SCENARIO FOR CLIMATE DURING 2080-2099 UNDER A BUSINESS-AS-USUAL EMISSIONS TRAJECTORY (RCP8.5).
NEGATIVE DAMAGES INDICATE BENEFITS. AGRICULTURAL YIELDS BASED ON MAIZE, WHEAT, SOYBEANS, AND COTTON.68 FORTUNE APRIL 2020The world’s five warmest years on record have been its past five, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, part of the U.S. Department of Commerce. And as the planet continues to heat up, a growing body
of academic research shows that rising temperatures will have profound effects on the global economy. While some
countries may actually prosper, one study projects average global incomes will fall 23% by the end of the century.If warming continues to be unmit-
igated, Southern states will have
to contend with huge increases in
energy costs, rising damage from
coastal storms, lower crop yields,
and even higher mortality rates
owing to extreme heat.PROJECTING THE COST OF CLIMATE CHANGETHERE IS
an optimal
temperature,
believe it or
not, at which
economic performance
peaks: 55° F. That’s ac-
cording to researchers at
Stanford and UC-Berkeley
who examined long-term
economic data from 166
countries to project the
impact of changing climate
on the global economy.
New York City and Palo
Alto, it’s worth noting,
both have average annual
temperatures near 55°. For
cooler countries, rising
to the mid-50s can boost
output. But the hotter it
gets above that, the more
productivity slides, thanks
to factors such as increased
energy demand, lower crop
yields, and even declines
in cognitive function. (It’s
hard for humans to con-
centrate when it’s scorch-
ing.) The same trend ap-
plies to the U.S. economy:
Places where it’s already
relatively hot are likely to
be hit harder as tempera-
tures rise. A separate study
by researchers from UC-
Berkeley, Prince ton, and
other institutions found
that counties in the West,
Midwest, and Southeast
would be disproportion-
ately hurt by unmitigated
warming, with some losing
up to 20% of GDP by 2100.
—Brian O’KeefeECONOMICSGRAPHICS BY NICOLAS RAPPRAP.W.04.20.XMIT.indd 68 FINAL 3/10/2020 8:20:58 PM