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POLITICS

Philadelphia’s

Importance

In 2020 Race

Swing-state cities can be the tipping

point for candidates, especially

Democrats, on Election Day

up against Mr. Trump, with

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobu-

char as his running mate.

“With Bernie, I think you

bring that younger genera-

tion,” she said.

Ms. Walker, who works in

regulatory labeling for phar-

maceuticals, said she has en-

joyed watching her retire-

ment fund’s balance rise as

the stock market has surged.

But she said new policies are

needed to help younger peo-

ple.

“When I look at the gener-

ation that’s coming up be-

hind us, their wages have

not risen to meet what it

costs,” she said.

Strawberry Mansion

Tonnetta Graham hasn’t

decided which Democratic

candidate to back, but she is

clear on one point: This low-

income, African-American

area needs help in its strug-

gles with gun violence, de-

clining population, school

closings and high unemploy-

ment. The vibrant U.S. econ-

omy hasn’t made its pres-

ence felt, she says.

“The trickle-down thing

isn’t working,” said Ms. Gra-

ham, 52, who heads a local

community development cor-

poration but said she was

speaking only for herself.

“Our access to jobs is getting

tougher because the jobs

that are coming through

Philadelphia, you have to

have a certain level of educa-

tion.”

Outside a Save A Lot su-

permarket, 26-year-old secu-

rity guard Mike Williams

said he doesn’t vote because

he doesn’t think it matters

to his life.

“Vote anyway!” Jeresia

English, 48, shouted at him

as she emerged from the

store. To Ms. English, who

has a medical disability,

health care is a key concern.

“I need my medical insur-

ance,” she said.

Ms. English said she loves

Ms. Warren but is “just vot-

ing blue” in November.

Cedar Park

In Democrat Matthew

Steuer’s dreams, localized

economies would replace

capitalism. The closest any

current candidate comes to

his worldview is Mr. Sand-

ers.

“For me, democratic so-

cialism doesn’t go quite far

enough, but it’s the best we

canaspireto,”saidMr.

Steuer, a 36-year-old carpen-

ter who lives in Cedar Park.

The gentrified West Philadel-

phia neighborhood is one of

several Sanders strongholds.

Clockwise from top: Kevin

Harden backs Sen. Elizabeth

Warren. Matthew Steuer is a

fan of Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Both say they will vote for the

Democratic nominee. Tonnetta

Graham says her low-income

area needs help. Patricia De

Carlo doesn’t have a preferred

Democratic candidate yet.

Mr. Steuer praised Mr.

Sanders’s support of “Medi-

care for all” and called him

the only hope to address cli-

mate change in a substantive

way. Still, Mr. Steuer said he

would vote for whomever

faces Mr. Trump. “I get a lit-

tle frustrated with people

who act like their vote is

some deep symbol of every-

thing they are,” he said.

Joanne Beer joined the in-

formal Philly for Bernie

group last summer and is

now a co-chair.

“I see his campaign as

sort of restoring democracy

to the people,” she said.

Ms. Beer, a 38-year-old

postdoctoral researcher, said

it is premature to ask any-

one to commit to vote in No-

vember for the Democratic

nominee with the primary

campaign still in flux.

“I don’t really agree with

giving any Democrat a free

pass,” she said.

Society Hill

Larry Spector lives in the

wealthiest part of Philadel-

phia and backs the richest

candidate in the Democratic

field, former New York City

Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

“I don’t think anybody

holds a candle to him in

terms of his qualifications,”

said Mr. Spector, a 69-year-

old lawyer who leads the

civic association in Society

Hill, a neighborhood with el-

egant colonial homes and

cobblestone streets.

Still, he said he wouldn’t

hesitate to vote for any Dem-

ocrat.

“Just in terms of overall

integrity and bringing the

country together and com-

passion for people and fight-

ing hate, any of these people

would be better,” he said of

the Democratic field.

Shannon Hanby, 32,

shares an anybody-but-

Trump outlook. “We cannot

have another four years of

Trump,” she said.

But she is leery of what

Mr. Sanders’s backers will do

if he again comes up short in

his quest for the party’s

nomination. “There is a very

loud group that only wants

Bernie,” said Ms. Hanby, a

consultant for employee

wellness programs, “and that

is very concerning.”

Norris Square

Philadelphia’s burgeoning

Latino population represents

a potential boon for 2020

candidates. The community

makes up about 15% of the

city’s population, but has

disproportionately low rates

of voting or registering to

vote, analysts say.

Take Iesha Delvalle. The

28-year-old caregiver of

Puerto Rican heritage said

she doesn’t see the point be-

cause she distrusts politi-

cians. “Some people do

break promises. They sell us

dreams. It’s sad,” she said.

Such attitudes exasperate

Patricia De Carlo. “I person-

ally get very upset with my

people,” said Ms. De Carlo,

75, a Puerto Rico native. She

said she doesn’t yet have a

preferred Democratic candi-

date.

Mayfair

On paper, Mike Keenan

seems a solid Democratic

vote. The 48-year-old

teacher voted for Mr. Obama

twice and for Mrs. Clinton,

he said, in large part because

of education funding.

But Mr. Keenan, a regis-

tered Democrat who lives in

northeast Philadelphia’s

working-class Mayfair neigh-

borhood, said he is leaning

toward voting for Mr. Trump

this year.

For him it goes beyond

the economy. “I think people

are proud to be American

again,” he said.

Peter McDermott’s job

this fall will be to turn out

Democratic votes in Mayfair

and nearby areas where Mr.

Trump enjoys support. The

high-school teacher is the

elected Democratic leader in

Ward 64, a cluster of neigh-

borhoods where many city

workers live.

Four years ago Mrs. Clin-

ton barely won there, while

losing another northeast

ward.

Among Mr. McDermott’s

targets this year will be

Democrats who don’t consis-

tently vote and those who

backed Mr. Trump in 2016.

Philadelphia has been a
Democratic bastion for de-
cades. That doesn’t mean the
party can overlook it in the
2020 race.
The nearly 1.1 million reg-
istered voters in the nation’s
sixth-largest city account for
about 12% of
all voters in
Pennsylvania,
a key battle-
ground state.
More than 800,000 of them
are registered Democrats,
giving the party a 7-to-1 ad-
vantage over the GOP, which
has 118,000 registered vot-
ers. Republicans are also
outnumbered by voters who
eschew either major party.
But as in other swing-
state cities like Detroit and
Milwaukee, the challenge for
the Democratic presidential
nominee—whoever it is—will
be to unify a diverse elector-
ate and rack up enough
votes to help flip the state.
In 2016, Donald Trump
carried Pennsylvania by just
44,292 votes.
Some Democrats stayed
home, backed a third-party
candidate or cast a ballot for
Mr. Trump.
Had Hillary Clinton
matched Barack Obama’s
turnout and share of the
vote in Philadelphia in either
of his runs, she would have
picked up 26,000 to 30,
more votes. A slightly better
showing here and in the sub-
urbs and she could have won
Pennsylvania, which along
with Wisconsin and Michi-
gan vaulted Mr. Trump into
the White House.
“Democrats in Philadel-
phia realize how much is rid-
ing on our shoulders in this
election. I think we realize
how much we need to step it
up,” said Sarah Hansel, a 33-
year-old lawyer who leads
the Philadelphia Young Dem-
ocrats.
The fight for votes here
will be neighborhood by
neighborhood. Here’s a look
at what voters are saying
about the race, the issues
and the party’s odds of unit-
ing in November:

Mount Airy

In this middle-class, ra-
cially integrated neighbor-
hood full of old stone houses
in northwest Philadelphia,
34-year-old lawyer Kevin
Harden said many of his
neighbors support former
Vice President Joe Biden, a
Pennsylvania native.
Not him. He’s backing
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth
Warren.
The self-described pro-
gressive said he sees her as
a bridge-builder who cares
about race, workers and in-
come inequality.
But whoever secures the
party’s nomination will get
his vote in November, he
said. “I will be pushing D,
trust me, even if it’s Michael
Bloomberg,” he said with a
laugh.
To Mr. Harden, sitting out
such an important election
with important policies on
the line reflects “a level of
privilege that I’ve never ex-
perienced.”
Rhonda Walker, 58, said
she would love to see Ver-
mont Sen. Bernie Sanders go

BYSCOTTCALVERT

IncreaseinDemocraticvotesin26 Nodata

MAYFAIR

SOCIETY HILL

CEDAR

PARK

STRAWBERRY

MANSION

MOUNT

AIRY

NORRIS SQUARE

Center

City

PHILADELPHIA

Turnout Trends

In 2016, Hillary Clinton didn't get as many votes in

Philadelphia as Barack Obama did four years earlier.

Percentage decline in votes for the Democratic presidential

candidate in 2016 compared with 2012

-10% -5% 0%

Source: Philadelphia City Commissioners

In the ebb and flow of a

long presidential campaign,

such currents can change

rapidly. Still, the campaign is

heading into a crucial stretch

where these markers will be-

gin to matter more.

The mystery man of the

Democratic primary, former

New York Mayor Michael

Bloomberg, formally took the

stage for the first time when

he participated in a Demo-

cratic debate in Nevada. It

didn’t go well.

He was roundly attacked

by the other five candidates

on stage, and, as even the

Bloomberg team acknowl-

edged, didn’t respond force-

fully. That raises the ques-

tion of whether the former

mayor and his big checkbook

will be the force in the cam-

paign’s moderate lane that

many had been expecting.

Nobody went after Mr.

Bloomberg harder than Sen.

Elizabeth Warren, who ap-

pears to have revived her

flagging campaign with a fi-

ery performance. But she

went after most of the other

candidates on the stage al-

most as hard, while giving a

pass to her fellow liberal,

Sen. Bernie Sanders. Mean-

time, moderates Pete Butt-

igieg, the former mayor of

South Bend, Ind., and Sen.

Amy Klobuchar are locked in

a new struggle to knock each

other out.

The net result is that the

Democrats’ front-runner, Mr.

Sanders, skated around the

scrum with little damage,

raising fears among many

party leaders that the candi-

date they consider least

suited to beating Mr. Trump

in the fall is consolidating

his position. Both the

Bloomberg and Buttigieg

campaigns issued memos

warning that Mr. Sanders

could build an “insurmount-

able” lead in delegates in the

next few weeks, when 16

states holding more than

35% of the total delegates to

the summer nominating con-

vention will vote.

Meanwhile, the signs were

generally positive for the

Trump campaign. Though

most national polls still

show the president trailing

all of the leading Democratic

contenders, they also show

his position improving.

A new Wall Street Jour-

nal/NBC News poll placed his

job approval at 47%, match-

ing the highest ever, with

slightly stronger numbers in

a set of swing states. A Quin-

nipiac poll had him ahead of

all Democrats in the crucial

state of Wisconsin.

Democrats just had per-
haps the most dramatic and
consequential week of the
presidential campaign—
though not
necessarily
the week
many party
leaders had
hoped for.
President
Trump, meanwhile, had a
week sprinkled with good
political omens.

BYGERALDF.SEIB

Democratic Candidates Tussle While Trump Inches Upward



THIS

WEEK

ELECTION

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MICHELLE GUSTAFSON FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL (4)