March9,2020 BARRON’S 15
PREVIEW
Inside the
Biden Bounce
The markets appeared to cheer for Joe Biden after his
success on Super Tuesday, sending the Dow industrials
up 4.53% on Wednesday. Biden’s comeback turned the
race into a battle between the former vice president and
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nod.
Biden’s bounce may be as much about Sanders, a self-
described democratic socialist, as Biden. Sanders is hos-
tile to Wall Street, and is often viewed as so radical that
his candidacy would ensure President Donald Trump’s
re-election—despite Real Clear Politics showing Sanders
with an average 4.5 percentage-point lead over Trump.
Biden now leads in delegates, 638 to Sanders’ 563. “It
looks like Joe Biden has the inside track on the nomina-
tion,” David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan
Funds, told clients on Wednesday. There are 365 dele-
gates up for grabs this week, when six states and two
territories vote. The week after, 577 more are on the line
in four races. The most crucial, said Kelly: Michigan on
March 10 and Florida on March 17. Biden could lock up
the nomination with a sweep. Sanders, however, has a
shot at both, which could flip the race back in his favor.
In a general election, Andy Laperriere, Cornerstone
Macro’s head of U.S. policy research, describes a Trump-
Biden race as “roughly a jump ball.” Markets are re-
sponding positively to Biden, he says, and a Biden presi-
dency would be seen as benign, as long as Democrats
don’t pick up the Senate. Is that possible? Biden won one
key state, North Carolina, with 43% of the vote. But don’t
forget: In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the North Carolina
primary, but Trump took the state.—Lisa Beilfuss
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Walt Disney holds its annual shareholders
meeting in Raleigh, N.C. The firm just appointed
Bob Chapek as CEO, replacing Bob Iger, who had helmed Disney since 2005.
Wednesday
Monday 3/
Franco-NevadaandVail Resorts
report quarterly results.
Tuesday 3/
Dick’s Sporting Goodsreports
earnings.
Qualcommholds its annual share-
holders meeting in San Diego.
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies......
nologieshosts its 2020 Investor
Conference.
The National Federationof Inde-
pendent Business releases its Small
Business Optimism Index for Febru-
ary. Economists forecast a 103.4 read-
ing, similar to January’s reading. Opti-
mism among small-business owners
remains high.
Wednesday 3/
The Bureau of LaborStatistics re-
ports the consumer price index for
February. Expectations are for a 2.2%
year-over-year increase, after a 2.5%
jump in January. The core CPI, which
excludes volatile food and energy
prices, is seen rising 2.3%, matching
the January data.
The Treasury Departmentreleases
the U.S. monthly budget statement for
February. For fiscal 2019, which ended
in September, the federal deficit was
$984 billion—the largest since 2012.
The Congressional Budget Office proj-
ects a $1 trillion deficit for 2020.
Moody’s webcastsits 2020 investor
day.
Analog DevicesandTE Connectiv-
ityhost their annual meeting of
shareholders in Boston and Zurich,
respectively.
Thursday 3/
Adobe, Broadcom, Dollar General,
Gap, Oracle, Slack Technologies,
andUlta Beautyall report earnings.
The European CentralBank an-
nounces its monetary-policy decision.
Futures markets are pricing in an
80% chance that the ECB will cut its
key short-term interest by 10 basis
points from the already record low
level of negative 0.5%. The euro zone’s
gross domestic product grew 0.1% in
the fourth quarter of last year, and the
negative impact of the coronavirus
outbreak could tip the region into a
recession.
Applied Materialshosts its annual
shareholders meeting in Santa Clara,
Calif.
The Bureau of LaborStatistics
releases the producer price index for
February. Consensus estimates are for
a flat reading, with the core PPI
expected to gain 0.2%. Both the PPI
and core PPI jumped 0.5% in the
month of January.
Friday 3/
The University of Michiganreleases
its Consumer Sentiment index for
March. Economists forecast a 94 read-
ing, which is down from February’s
101 figure.
PrimaryMath
Sources: Real Clear Politics; Ballotpedia
Big Races on Tap
Date State Delegates
March 10 Michigan 125
Missouri 68
Washington 89
March 17 Arizona 67
Florida 219
Illinois 155
Ohio 136
March 24 Georgia 105
April 7 Wisconsin 84
April 28 Maryland 96
New York 274
Pennsylvania 186
*If a delegate majority isn’t secured, super-
delegates vote and the target is 2,376.*Average of eight national polls
Biden
Sanders
Others
Delegates
Needed to Win*
The Delegate Hunt
Head-to-Head Spreads, as of March 5*
603
538
161
1991
Biden
Versus Trump
Sanders
Versus Trump
+5.
+4.
Elias SteinComing Earnings
Consensus Estimate Year agoMStitch Fix (Q2) 0.06 0.Vail Resorts (Q2) 5.46 5.TBlueLinx (Q4) 0. ....Dick’s Sporting Goods (Q4) 1.22 1.WVera Bradley (Q4) 0.52 0.More Earnings on Page 36.Consensus Estimate
Day Consensus EstLast PeriodW Feb. CPI 0.20% 0.20%TH Feb. PPI 0.10% 0.50%F Mar. Michigan Sentiment - p 94.0 101.Unless otherwise indicated, times are Eastern. a-Advanced;f-Final; p-Preliminary; r-Revised Source: FactSetFor more information about coming economic reports- and what they mean - go to Barron’s free Economic
Calendar at http://www.barrons.com