Barron\'s - April 6 2020

April 6, 2020 BARRON’S 13

PREVIEW

DETECTING COVID-19 ANTIBODIES

Sign up for the Review &

Preview daily newsletter at

Barrons.com/reviewpreview

The University of Michigan releases its Consumer

Sentiment Index for April. Economists forecast an 79

reading, a steep decline from March’s 89.1 figure.

Thursday

Monday 4/

The Saudia Arabia-led Organization

of Petroleum Exporting Countries

holds an emergency meeting with its

non-OPEC allies, notably Russia, in an

attempt to stabilize oil prices. West

Texas crude had fallen by two-thirds

this year through the end of March

before rebounding.

Incyte webcasts a call to discuss

clinical-trial data of ruxolitinib

cream for the treatment of eczema.

Tuesday 4/

Levi Strauss reports quarterly results.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics

releases the Job Openings and Labor

Turnover Survey for February. Con-

sensus estimates are for 6.8 million job

openings on the last business day of

February, compared with seven million

in January.

The Federal Reserve reports con-

sumer credit data for February. Last

year, consumer borrowing climbed

4.5%, to nearly $4.2 trillion, still below

the five-year average jump of 5.6%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia an-

nounces its monetary-policy decision.

The central bank cut its cash target rate

to a record low 0.25% on March 19

after an emergency meeting, hoping to

stave off Australia’s first recession

since 1991.

Wednesday 4/

Costco Wholesale reports sales data

for March.

Thursday 4/

Adobe and Dow hold their annual

shareholder meetings.

The BLS release s the producer price

index for March. Expectations are for a

0.3% drop, after a 0.6% fall in Febru-

ary. The core PPI, which excludes vola-

tile food and energy prices, is seen

gaining 0.1%, compared with Febru-

ary’s 0.3% decline.

The Department of Labor reports

initial jobless claims for the week

ending on April 4. This past week, the

DOL reported 6.6 million jobless

claims for the week ending on March

28, the second straight record high.

Friday 4/

Equity and fixed-income markets in

the U.S. are closed in observance of

Good Friday.

The BLS releases the consumer price

index for March. Consensus estimates

are for a 1.3% rise year-over-year, after

a 2.3% rise in February. The core CPI is

expected to gain 2.4%, matching Febru-

ary’s data.

The Treasury Department releases

the U.S. budget statement for March.

Economists forecast a $150 billion

shortfall. Even before the coronavirus

outbreak, and the trillions earmarked

to fight the disease, the annual budget

deficit was expected to top $1 trillion

for fiscal 2020, which ends in Septem-

ber. It’s likely that the U.S. will hit a

record high deficit this year, surpassing

2009’s $1.4 trillion.

Coming Earnings

Consensus Estimate Year Ago

M

SeaChange (Q4) 0.18 -0.

T

Levi Strauss (Q1) 0.36 0.

TH

WD-40 (Q2) 1.21 1.

Consensus Estimate

Day Consensus EstLast Period

T Feb. JOLTS 6,800,000 6,963,

Feb. Consumer Credit $15.6 bil $12.0 bil

TH Mar. PPI 0.00% -0.30%

Apr. Michigan Sentiment - p 79.0 89.

Feb. Wholesale Inventories -0.50% -0.50%

F Mar. CPI 0.10% 0.20%

Mar. Treasury Budget -$150.0 bil -$235.3 bil

Unless otherwise indicated, times are Eastern. a-Advanced;

f-Final; p-Preliminary; r-Revised Source: FactSet

For more information about coming economic reports—and

what they mean—go toBarron’sfree Economic Calendar

at http://www.barrons.com

ATesttoGet

Back to Work

It could take many months for new drugs or vaccines to

beat back Covid-19. But Citigroup analysts last week of-

fered a glimmer of hope: rapid tests for viral antibodies

that could provide a path to normalcy more quickly.

Citi’s Andrew Baum and his colleagues argue that 60%

of U.S. workers could be given quick, point-of-care serol-

ogy tests by the end of April—95% by the end of May. Posi-

tive tests could allow up to 400,000 people who had been

exposed to, and recovered from, Covid-19 to return to

work, and up to 90 million by July.

How many undiagnosed U.S. cases of Covid-19 are

there? Nobody knows without widespread antibody test-

ing. Baum’s estimate: 160,000 to 3.2 million.

Serology tests use a blood sample to seek evidence that a

person has produced antibodies against the virus. Those

testing positive may be immune to new Covid-19 infections—

though that’s unproven. The Food and Drug Administration

has allowed sales of antibody tests, which are available over-

seas and beginning to enter the U.S., without prior approval.

Citi doesn’t go into detail as to where the tests are coming

from—a key question given the disastrous U.S. experience

with Covid-19 molecular testing. A few companies are mak-

ing Covid-19 serology tests: Biomerica shipped samples in

mid-March, while Henry Schein said it would have “at least

several hundred thousand” tests ready by March 30.

Baum notes that regulators haven’t confirmed the tests’

accuracy. And someone who lacks antibodies to the virus

may not necessarily be immune to another infection. But as a

bridge to a vaccine, it might be just what the doctor ordered.

—Josh Nathan-Kazis

Restart the Engine

Citigroup believes antibody testing

for Covid-19 could be rapidly ramped

up,allowingmanytoreturntowork.

By the

end of

April

By the

end of

May

Sources: FactSet; Citigroup

60%

95%

0

5

10

15

$

Biomerica

BMRA

Henry Schein

HSIC

F M A

40

50

60

70

$

F M A

Elias Stein