Financial Times Weekend 22-23Feb2020

6 ★ FT Weekend 22 February/23 February 2020

N E I L M U N S H I— L AG O S

It is late in the evening and Elizabeth, a
32-year-old cleaner, is waiting for a bus
on a crowded corner near Lagos’ law
school on Victoria Island, desperate to
get home.

Like many Lagosians, her commute has
been made much worse by an unex-
pected ban this month on motorcycle
taxis and tricycles from the most con-
gested parts of Nigeria’s commercial
centre, forcing her to add a half-hour
trek on either end of her commute. “It’s
not easy,” she said, as she rushed to beat
the crowd piling into a midsized saloon
taxi. “They should fix this.”
Millions in Lagos rely on motorbikes
and tricycles for the last miles of their
commutes in a megacity with legendary
traffic jams and little public transport.
People on the city’s sprawling main-
land have long faced round trips of up to
four hours to the business districts on
the islands. Following the ban, many
have been forced to walk long distances
in the tropical heat from bus stations to
their homes or offices.
Africa’s largest city has seen an explo-

sion of growth over the past half-cen-

tury, rising from 1.4m people in 1970 to

roughly 21m today.

With thousands of people arriving

each day from poorer parts of the coun-

try, its expansion has been mostly

unplanned. Infrastructure has not kept

pace — the public transportation net-

work, from ferries that ply its water-

ways to buses that roam its shoddy

roads, is woefully inadequate.

“Public transport in Lagos is very defi-

cient in quantity and quality consider-

ing its megacity status,” said Wale

Alade, head of the urban and regional

planning department at the University

of Lagos. “Okada[motorcycle taxis] and

keke[tricycles] emerged to bridge the

gap, albeit with adverse environmental,

safety and security effects, leading to

the ban.”

The administration of governor Baba-

jide Sanwo-Olu has said the ban is

needed because the mostly unregulated

vehicles are unsafe. The government

said that motorcycles killed 11,000 peo-

ple between 2011 and 2019.

“We will sustain the ban onokadaand

tricycles, mainly because of security

and safety reasons,” Mr Sanwo-Olu said

this month while inaugurating eight

small ferry boats, promising a total of 30

by the end of the year. “The narrative of

transportation in Lagos is about to

change for good, as we are set to take

advantage of the water bodies to decon-

gest our roads and substantially reduce

travel time for commuters.”

Since the ban took effect on February

1, the government has also added 55 new

buses and pledged to increase them to

500 by the end of the year.

But few in Lagos believe that will hap-

pen, or that the city can make up for the

loss of motorcycle taxis and tricycles.

“Of course they say they have intro-

duced the buses, but we are not seeing

them,” said Aliou Oshady, 37, as he

began his new, 90-minute walk back to

Obalende from Victoria Island. “The

government should either reverse the

policy or actually compensate for the

loss [of these options].”

Some Lagosians support the ban

despite the longer commute. “You see

how many people die on a daily basis

because ofokada andkeke,” said Daniel,

a 45-year-old commuter on Victoria

Island. “Now everyone has to wait

longer for a bus, but it’s better than los-

ing your life.”

The ban has also hit motorcycle ride-

hailing apps. Gokada, a company

known for its green-helmeted drivers

and which raised more than $5m from

venture capitalists last year, ended its

transport business, leaving at least 800

drivers without jobs.

The company said it would begin

offering a boat-hailing service. OPay, a

payments company that has raised

$170m from mostly Chinese investors

and has expanded its ride-hailing app

ORide, said that 90 per cent of its 3,

drivers had lost their jobs.

“We understand the need to bring

reforms to the industry [especially the

informal riders] but the way it’s been

done really raises questions among

investors.. .[about] whether Lagos is

indeed open for business,” said Tayo

Bamiduro, co-founder of Max. Ng,

which has more than 1,000 motorcycles

operating in Lagos.

“The ban covers the most commer-

cially viable parts of Lagos, so... it’s

like in New York if ride-hailing compa-

nies can’t operate in Manhattan any

more,” he said.

“It makes it pretty hard from an eco-

nomic standpoint.” The biggest impact

has been on commuters and drivers, he

added, who have been forced to scrab-

ble around for new sources of income.

In Obalende, Linus Udo hailed

passengers for a private minivan for the

40-minute trip to Victoria Island. As the

driver pulled away, his van full to burst-

ing, he handed Mr Udo a N50 note

through the window.

“This is small money,” Mr Udo said,

holding up the blue note, worth about

$0.14. “This is nothing — but I don’t have

a job. I’m suffering.”

Barking for passengers for a handful

more buses might earn him enough for

food that day, but the 30-year-old has

been all over town in the past few weeks

looking unsuccessfully for jobs as a

security guard or driver. “I don’t know

what the government wants,” Mr Udo

said. “Do they want us to become

thieves?”

Nigeria

Lagos commuters forced to walk after motorbike taxis banned over safety concerns

B R E N DA N G R E E L E Y— N E W YO R K

An influential member of the Federal
Reserve’s board of governors has called
for the central bank to set temporary
inflation targets above its current goal of
2 per cent, to make up for periods when
price rises run below target.
In remarks at the US Monetary Policy
Forum in New York yesterday, Fed gov-
ernor Lael Brainard referred to this pol-
icy as “flexible inflation averaging”.
The comments offer the clearest sign

yet that the Fed intends to re-examine

how its Monetary Policy Committee

approaches its inflation target, as it pre-

pares to release conclusions from an 18-

month policy review this summer.

“By committing to achieve inflation

outcomes that average 2 per cent over

time, the committee would make clear

in advance that it would accommodate

rather than offset modest upward pres-

sures to inflation in what could be

described as a process of opportunistic

reflation,” she said. “This approach will

help move inflation expectations back

to our 2 per cent objective.. .”

As both interest rates and inflation

have dropped over the long term, Fed

policymakers have worried they have

little room to use their traditional tool of

short-term interest rates to encourage

growth in the next downturn. After

three cuts last year, the Fed funds rate is

currently 1.5 to 1.75 per cent.

Policymakers stress that consumer

and business expectations for inflation

may have become stuck and therefore

impervious to central intervention.

Since the financial crisis, the Fed has

consistently had difficulty meeting its

inflation target of 2 per cent. This makes

efforts during a recession to dislodge

those expectations even more urgent.

A report prepared for the forum on

so-called non-traditional tools — such as

central bank asset purchases and the

longer-term policy commitments

known as “forward guidance” — noted

how some countries had hesitated after

the financial crisis to roll them out and

that early, aggressive use of these tools

was more effective.

Ms Brainard endorsed acting early

and decisively. “For monetary policy to

be effective, it will be key for policymak-

ers to communicate their strategy

clearly in advance to the public, to act

early and decisively, and to commit to

providing the requisite accommodation

until full employment and target infla-

tion are sustainably achieved,” she said.

Ms Brainard laid out a three-part

response to a future recession. First, she

proposed the Fed should act quickly.

Second, it should commit to capping

rates on Treasuries over the short and

medium term. Third, it should offer for-

ward guidance that it intended to over-

shoot its inflation target until it reached

an average of 2 per cent over time.

Several Fed policymakers have dis-

cussed so-called make-up strategies, in

which the central bank would commit

to pushing inflation above target for

periods, to make up for time spent

below 2 per cent.

Such a policy would require “making

it clear that it’s acceptable that to aver-

age 2 per cent, you can’t have only

observations that are below 2 per cent”,

Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal

Reserve Bank of Boston, told the Finan-

cial Times in December.

Central bank

Fed temporary inflation target urged

Governor seeks goal above

current 2 per cent level

in sign of policy rethink

DAV E L E E— L A S V E G A S

Laura Becerra stumbles as she starts,
admitting to being a “little bit nervous”,
but the young Latina organiser for
Bernie Sanders soon finds her feet.
“Bernie has fought for women’s rights,
and I believe in him,” the 24-year-old
told the gathering of 25 or so assembled
in Las Vegas on Thursday.
Young Latino voters such as Ms
Becerra could make the difference here
in Nevada, where today the state’s com-
munity centres and casino floors will
play host to the third vote in the Demo-
cratic contest, the first to take place in
the western US.
The vote will not settle the crowded
race but will offer the strongest hint yet
as to who will face President Donald
Trump in November. Mr Sanders is the
frontrunner, having pipped Pete Butti-
gieg in New Hampshire and coming a
narrow second in Iowa.
But in Nevada the Democratic field
faces a demographic far more repre-
sentative of the country at large, and
where Latino voters make up 20 per
cent of the electorate, versus just 3 per
cent in New Hampshire, according to
data from the Pew Hispanic Center.
Today’s results might indicate which
Democrat will be able to sew up Latino
support on March 3. On that day —
Super Tuesday — 14 states vote, includ-
ing California (Latino vote 30 per cent)
and Texas (also 30 per cent). It could
decide who the Democratic contender
against Mr Trump will be.
In July, the Sanders campaign opened
a field office in East Las Vegas — a pre-
dominantly Latino community — and
has been knocking on doors ever since.
That effort has been led by field director
Susana Cervantes and her deputy
Michael Ramirez — two of the 150 Lat-
ino staffers at “every level of the organi-
sation”, the Sanders campaign said.
It appears to be working. Mr Sanders
entered the weekend polling at 30 per
cent in Nevada, versus former vice-
president Joe Biden’s 16 per cent,
according to an average calculated by
RealClearPolitics. Wednesday’s strong
debate showing by Massachusetts sena-
tor Elizabeth Warren is not expected to
change much here. In a poll conducted

what will be Mr Sanders’ ultimate chal-

lenge in appealing to Latinos at large. He

will need to simultaneously stoke the

idealism and optimism of his youthful

base, while satisfying the pragmatism of

the older voters he needs.

In Nevada, though, for many, the

decision has already been made. For the

first time, Nevadans have been given a

four-day window to cast their vote early,

reflecting the need for flexibility given

the unpredictable working patterns in a

city that never sleeps. More than 75,

people have taken the early vote option.

Total turnout in 2016, without an early

vote, was 84,000.

Among the locations for the caucus

will be the casino floor at the Bellagio,

where casino workers will given time off

to participate.

“We don’t want workers to be penal-

ised for exercising their civic duty,” Ms

Khan said. “If you have to make up 15

rooms in a day, maybe, because of the

caucus, it’s just 12.”

Big Readpage 9

JO H N R E E D— B A N G KO K

Thailand’s constitutional court has

ordered the dissolution of Future For-

ward, an opposition party that chal-

lenged the powerful military-backed

establishment, in a decision likely to

undermine political stability in south-

east Asia’s second-largest economy.

The court found the party’s leader

Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit guilty

of taking an illegal loan and ordered that

its executives should be banned from

holding political office for 10 years.

The case was one of more than 25 pro-

ceedings brought againstFuture For-

ward members and the party, which has

called for the removal of the military

from politics and a return to full democ-

racy for a country that experienced its

most recent military coup in 2014.

The decision comes ahead of a no-

confidence debate called by opposition

parties in parliament next week, and at

a time when the government of former

military dictator Prayuth Chan-ocha is

under criticism for its handling of the

coronavirus outbreak and for its man-

agement of a slowing economy.

The court was asked to rule on a com-

plaint brought by the election commis-

sion that alleged that Future Forward

took a 191m baht ($6m) loan from Mr

Thanathorn, a member of a wealthy

Bangkok family that owns Thai Summit

Group, an automotive company.

Donations from individuals are lim-

ited by law to 10m baht, and the court

ruled the loan amounted to a donation.

Mr Thanathorn has denied wrongdoing,

and he and other party members have

described the actions brought against

the party as political harassment.

Future Forward emerged as a new

political force in e lections last year,

gaining a following among young Thais

and becoming the third-largest party in

parliament with promises to revitalise

the country and remove the military

from politics.

The vote was marred by irregularities

and claims that the rules were rigged to

ensure a victory by Mr Prayuth’s Palang

Pracharat party.

Analysts said the court decision could

pave the way for street protests by the

party’s supporters. “If people cannot do

something to challenge the former mili-

tary government in parliament, they

may start protesting outside,” said Pun-

chada Sirivunnabood, an associate pro-

fessor of political science at Thailand’s

Mahidol University.

Yesterday, supporters of Future For-

ward gathered at its Bangkok headquar-

ters, singing and raising their hands in

the party’s three-fingered salute. “They

dissolved Future Forward party, but

they cannot dissolve us, they cannot dis-

solve our ideology, they cannot dissolve

our people,” said Mr Thanathorn.

A group of progressive south-east

Asian lawmakers expressed “extreme

disappointment” at the court’s decision

to dissolve the party.

“The penalty seems wholly dispro-

portionate to the infraction, and when

you look at the huge number of cases

brought against the Future Forward

party and its members since it was

founded, it is hard not to question

whether they are being singled out

because they pose a threat to the politi-

cal establishment’s grip on power,” said

Abel Da Silva, an MP from Timor-Leste

and a member of Asean Parliamentari-

ans for Human Rights.

Future Forward

Thai court

dissolves

political party

over loan

White House race.Western US

Stakes are high for Democrats in Las Vegas

Nevada caucus is first test of

Latino backing for contenders

aiming to take on Trump

candidate. It represents more than

60,000 mostly entertainment workers

in Las Vegas and Reno. But it did land a

blow against Mr Sanders. In a flyer last

week, Local 226 said his Medicare For

All plan, a pillar of his campaign, threat-

ened to end the health insurance bene-

fits enjoyed by workers, won thanks to

years of hard negotiation.

On Thursday, at Local 226’s head-

quarters, 59-year-old Olee Stewart, a

cook at Harrah’s hotel and casino on the

Las Vegas Strip, was calling fellow union

members and urging them to attend

today’s caucus. The number one talking

point, he said, was healthcare — and the

fear of losing it.

“There are people in families who

don’t have healthcare, and they need it,”

Mr Stewart said. “But we should have a

choice to keep our own. That’s where

the problem lies.”

Local 226’s membership is 54 per cent

Latino, according to spokeswoman

Bethany Khan, and the concerns

expressed among its ranks highlight

by Latino Decisions, in conjunction with

media company Univision, Nevada Lat-

inos expressed a 45 per cent “very

favourable” rating for Mr Sanders,

against 34 per cent for Mr Biden. While

seemingly landing well in other parts of

the country, the former vice-president’s

association with Barack Obama appears

to be doing little to gain the support of

young Hispanic voters.

“Just coming on and saying ‘I’m the

former vice-president’ is probably not

going to be enough,” said Stephen Nuño-

Perez, senior analyst at Latino Deci-

sions, “especially for these younger

folks, who in many ways were pressed

into being activists because of the

Obama administration.”

Mr Nuño-Perez said Mr Obama’s rep-

u t a t i o n a m o n g s o m e L a t i n o s

as “deporter in chief” has created a seri-

ous hurdle for Mr Biden.

The Sanders campaign has not had an

entirely smooth run. Local 226, the

Nevada chapter of the powerful Culi-

nary Union, chose not to back any single

Latino plea:

Democratic

presidential

hopeful Amy

Klobuchar

addresses a

meeting in

Las Vegas

this month

organised by the

League of United

Latin American

Citizens

Alex Wong/Getty Images

‘There are

people in

families

who don’t

have

healthcare,

and they

need it. But

we should

have a

choice

to keep

our own’

IN T E R N AT I O N A L

Millions in

Lagos rely on

motorbikes and

tricycles for the

last miles of

their commutes

in a megacity

with legendary

traffic jams

Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP/Getty

Images

FEBRUARY 22 2020 Section:World Time: 21/2/2020 - 19: 04 User: john.conlon Page Name: WORLD2, Part,Page,Edition: LON, 6 , 1