A4 | NEWS O THEGLOBEANDMAIL| MONDAY,MARCH9,
I
t has been a crisis of crises. The
coronavirus, which threatens
lives and the economy. Rail
blockades. Before that, fears of a
Middle East war and the downing
of an airliner carrying 85 Cana-
dian citizens and permanent resi-
dents.
For Prime Minister Justin Tru-
deau, the lesson of early 2020 was
that being seen dealing with a cri-
sis is good, and not being seen
dealing with one is bad.
But there’s something else:
The Prime Minister’s own atti-
tude has become a talking point.
Conservativeleadershipcandi-
dateshaveallegedhehaschecked
out in a time of crisis. In private,
some Tory MPs speculate Mr. Tru-
deau won’t run in the next elec-
tion. Liberal MPs have heard the
talk from constituents: Has Mr.
Trudeau gone missing?
But there’s no evidence the PM
has checked out. He has handled
lots of crises in 2020. The evi-
dence suggests something else:
his trouble picking a path for-
ward, and moving on.
Mr. Trudeau isn’t having a cri-
sis-management crisis, but he
may be having a bit of an identity
crisis.
Since last October’s chastening
election, he hasn’t really given
Canadians a clear sense of where
he is headed. When he hits a fork
in the road, he plows down the
middle.
Some things have changed vis-
ibly, including Mr. Trudeau’s
beard, and his tendency to say
less and have ministers say more.
There’s an effort to be more busi-
ness-like. But Trudeau 2.0 is still
enigmatic.
The record shows he handled
crises. The Incident Response
Group, an ad hoc cabinet com-
mittee created in August, 2018, to
replace the monthly meetings of
theCabinetCommitteeonIntelli-
gence and Emergency Manage-
ment, has been convened about
20 times in its 19-month exist-
ence–butmorethanhalfofthose
meetings were in the first two
months of this year.
Mr. Trudeau didn’t rush back
from holiday for two days when aJan. 3 U.S. drone attack killed an
Iranian general and triggered
fears of war. But by the time Ira-
nianforcesmistakenlyshotdown
a Ukrainian airliner carrying doz-
ensofCanadiansonJan.8,hewas
holding daily press conferences –
including breaking the news that
the plane was shot down.
He played to his strengths.He set the guiding notion that
the Canadian response would be
built around victims’ families.
That fit his empathic skills and
set an agenda: Canada wanted re-
patriation of remains, compensa-
tion and a full investigation. He
made a quick decision to take the
conclusion that the plane was
shot down public and to give Iran
an off-ramp to admit its blunder
by acknowledging the downing
might have been an accident.
The Incident Response Group
is just a preorganized set-up for
ad hoc meetings with a shifting
cast of characters, but it becamethe venue for Mr. Trudeau’s re-
sponse. For Flight 752, meetings
involved the Foreign Affairs Min-
ister, Defence Minister, Transport
Minister, as well as military and
intelligence officials.
For coronavirus, the meetings
drewintheHealthMinister,Chief
Public Health Officer and Foreign
Affairs Minister. In that case, Mr.
Trudeau is said to have mainly
posed a lot of questions – wheth-
er people without symptoms can
transmitthedisease,orwhatoth-
er countries were doing, for ex-
ample.
The committee became a PR
tool, too, highlighted to show the
government it was on the job.
And until Mr. Trudeau marred his
own PR by being photographed
smiling at Iran’s foreign minister,
it was going smoothly.
Of course, the blockades of rail
lines in early February were not
smooth. Mr. Trudeau was in Afri-
ca at first, but that wasn’t the is-
sue; Deputy Prime Minister
Chrystia Freeland could have
jumped in, if she had instruc-
tions. But back home, PMO aides
were too slow to see the block-
ades become crisis, and then be-
lieved it was about to be resolved.
But when he did come back,
Mr. Trudeau did make a decision,
just an unpopular one: to err on
the side of talking with First Na-
tionsbeforesignallinghehadlostpatience. He did dispatch minis-
ters to talks that helped cool ten-
sions.
So it’s not a question of wheth-
er Mr. Trudeau is hands-on in a
time of crisis. But there is a ques-
tion of whether he has decided
whattobeintermtwo.
The blockades crisis led to an
agreement with Wet’suwet’en
hereditary chiefs hisgovernment
doesn’t want to talk about. Mr.
Trudeau hasn’t said much about
what happens to reconciliation
now.
Big decisions, like the now-
withdrawn cabinet approval of
the Frontier oil sands project,
have deadlocked Mr. Trudeau’s
government.
People around Mr. Trudeau
don’t talk like he is less-intensely
into the job.
But they do suggest he has
been chastened. He worried
about national unity after last
fall’s election; he questioned
whether his virtue-signalling pol-
itics are divisive. One or two sug-
gest he was humbled by the
blackfacescandalduringtheelec-
tion, while others insist it goes
back a year, to the time of the
SNC-Lavalin affair.
Something has changed, but it
isn’t that the PM has checked out.
The less-swaggering Justin Tru-
deau2.0hasn’tgivenaclearsense
of direction.Trudeauhastochooseaclearpathforward
ThePMisn’thavinga
crisis-management
crisis,buthemay
behavingabitof
anidentityone
CAMPBELL
CLARK
OPINION
Bigdecisions,likethe
now-withdrawncabinet
approvaloftheFrontier
oilsandsproject,
havedeadlocked
Mr.Trudeau’s
government.OTTAWA
A few weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump told a
campaign rally that he deserved a Nobel Peace Prize
for “saving” Ethiopia from potential war with Egypt,
the dispute between the two countries has slid back
into a dangerous deadlock again.
Mr. Trump has taken a personal interest in the con-
flict over a massive Ethiopian hydro dam on the Blue
Nile that could reduce the water supply to Sudan and
Egypt – but his diplomatic efforts have failed to ease
the escalating conflict.
The intense U.S. role in the Nile negotiations has
sparked concerns from some analysts that Mr. Trump
is throwing his weight behind Egypt in the dispute. A
former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia, David Shinn, says
the United States “seems to be putting
its thumb on the scale in favour of
Egypt.”
Last week, after a breakdown in the
U.S.-mediated talks between the two
countries, Mr. Trump telephoned Egyp-
tian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and
“expressed hope that an agreement on
the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
would be finalized soon,” according to a
White House statement.
Egyptian reports said Mr. Trump
praised Mr. al-Sisi for signing a draft
agreement on the hydro dam at the lat-
est round of negotiations in late February in Washing-
ton, where the agreement was scheduled to be final-
ized. But Ethiopia refused to attend the talks and later
complained that the U.S. statement on the draft
agreement was “totally unacceptable” and “highly
partisan.” The United States has denied the accusation
of bias.
Ethiopia has vowed to push ahead with the US$4.5-
billion dam project, which has been under construc-
tion for nearly a decade. It still intends to begin filling
the dam’s reservoir in July, even though this could
trigger a deeper conflict with Egypt.
In the past, Cairo has threatened to bomb the hy-
dro dam and launch a war with Ethiopia if the dam
reduces the supply of water in the Nile River, which is
the source of 90 per cent of Egypt’s water and is cru-
cial to Egyptian agriculture. The Blue Nile, which orig-
inates in Ethiopia, is the main source of the Nile’s
waters, and Egypt sees the dam as an existential
threat.
Ethiopia has responded by saying it is willing to go
to war if necessary. “No force could stop Ethiopia from
building a dam,” Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy
Ahmed told the country’s parliament last October. “If
there is a need to go to war, we could get millions
readied.”
Ethiopia sees the hydro dam as essential to its
economy – it is intended to provide electricity for the
entire country and generate revenue from power ex-
ports. It would become one of the biggest hydro pro-
jects in the world when it is completed by 2022.
African countries had been mediating the dispute
over the dam for several years, until Washington
stepped in to take over the talks between Egypt, Su-
dan and Ethiopia last year.
After the failure of the February meeting, a U.S.
statement warned Ethiopia not to begin filling the
dam’s reservoir until a final agreement is reached.
Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister, Gedu Andargachew,
criticized the U.S. statement as “undiplomatic.” But he
said Ethiopia would continue to take part in the nego-
tiations.
Mr. Shinn, who is now an adjunct pro-
fessor of international affairs at George
Washington University, said it was sur-
prising that Mr. Trump had assigned the
Blue Nile dispute to his Treasury Secre-
tary, Steven Mnuchin, instead of leaving
it to the U.S. State Department, which
has more expertise in such disputes. He
was commenting on the dispute on his
personal blog.
Another analyst, Addisu Lashitew of
the Brookings Institution, said the U.S.-
led draft agreement could carry “unin-
tended future risks” because it is the product of a
“rushed” negotiation and lacks any agreed mecha-
nism for monitoring and enforcement.
Mr. Mnuchin, speaking to a Congressional commit-
tee last week, said he was “incredibly disappointed”
that Ethiopia had refused to sign the draft agreement.
Under a treaty supervised by the British in 1929, the
Nile waters were to be divided between Egypt and
Sudan. But Ethiopia, rejecting the treaty as a vestige of
the colonial era, began construction of the dam in
2011 without seeking Egypt’s approval.
In a statement last week, Egypt accused Ethiopia of
deliberately hindering the U.S.-led negotiations by
avoiding the late February session.
On Thursday, the Arab League voiced its support
for Egypt’s position, warning Ethiopia not to begin
filling the reservoir.
But the war of words continued on the weekend.
Ethiopia said it rejected the Arab League statement,
and Egypt complained that the Ethiopian statement
was “an unacceptable affront to the Arab League and
its member states.”SomehaveexpressedconcernthatU.S.PresidentDonaldTrumpisthrowinghisweightbehindEgyptinthecountry’s
disputewithEthiopiaovertheGrandEthiopianRenaissanceDam,above.EDUARDOSOTERAS/AFP/GETTYIMAGES
Trump’sdiplomacyfailstoresolve
Egypt-EthiopiaNiledeadlock
GEOFFREYYORK
AFRICABUREAUCHIEF
JOHANNESBURG
Ethiopiaseesthe
hydrodamas
essentialtoits
economy–itis
intendedtoprovide
electricityforthe
entirecountryand
generaterevenue
frompowerexports.R
ookie Conservative MP Eric Duncan struggled
with it initially – being the first.
“I don’t want to be the token gay guy,” he
said.
But he is also keenly aware of the historic role he
plays in his party’s caucus: the first openly gay Conser-
vative member of Parliament.
“I’ve kind of reluctantly embraced it,” Mr. Duncan,
32, said recently over coffee. “I can be a voice for a big
part of our party.”
Friendly and outgoing, Mr. Duncan came out publi-
clyina2017blogpostwhenhewasmayorofNorthDun-
das,southofOttawa.Hewashopingforindifference;he
was met with overwhelming support. A self-described
“classic nerd” and politics junkie first elected as a mu-
nicipalcouncilloratage18,hewonthemostlyruralrid-
ing of Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry in the 2019
federal election with almost 54 per cent support.
And now, he is using his unique position to speak
about his vision for the party – one that is both fiscally
conservative and what he calls “socially relevant.”
“We can have the best economic policies ... but peo-
ple weren’t listening to that because they didn’t feel we
were socially relevant. We weren’t with the times,” Mr.
Duncan said.
Departing leader Andrew Scheer came under fire
duringthecampaignforhispreviouspositionsonabor-
tionandsame-sexmarriage.Butitwashisapparentdis-
comfort when speaking about LGBTQ issues that ap-
peared to do the most damage within his own party.
Mr. Duncan, who said he
hasagoodworkingrelation-
ship with Mr. Scheer, said he
saw a similarity between his
bossandhisownfather,who
runs a trucking business.
“There clearly was some-
thing there where there was
... a lack of a comfort level,”
Mr. Duncan said of Mr.
Scheer. “What I also know is
that there are a lot of people
... that are allies of the com-
munity, but struggle with
how to say it.”
He said the majority of his party supports gay mar-
riage, unequivocally. And they want to move on from
the issue.
“I know that marriage equality is not going any-
where. My rights aren’t being taken away,” Mr. Duncan
said.
WhileMr.Scheerfacedrepeatedquestionsabouthis
refusal to walk in pride parades, Mr. Duncan said it
doesn’t matter. Federal leadership front-runners Peter
MacKay and Erin O’Toole have both said they’ll march,
although unlike Mr. MacKay, Mr. O’Toole said he won’t
participateinTorontoPrideuntiluniformedpoliceoffi-
cers are welcome.
“Everybodyhasadifferentwayofshowingtheirsup-
port.Itdoesn’thavetobewithaprideparade,butthose
who choose to do it, it’s awesome,” said Mr. Duncan,
who’s never marched himself. His riding didn’t even
haveaparadeuntillastyear,buthe’llattendthisyearif
he’s able.
What he’s more interested in is policy: supporting a
banonconversiontherapyforLGBTQpeople,andend-
ing the blood donation ban for gay men in Canada, a
Liberal promise that has yet to materialize.
Mr. Duncan is not currently supporting any Conser-
vative leadership candidates. But he has little patience
forcontenderssuchasDerekSloan,afirst-timeOntario
MPwhohassaidthatsexualorientationis“scientifical-
lyunclear,”andRichardDécarie,whowasbarredbythe
party from running and who publicly declared that be-
ing gay is a choice.
“I can scientifically confirm that being gay is not a
choice,” Mr. Duncan said.
Most of all, he hopes his own story will help young
people.
“If there’s a closeted teenager who’s gay in a rural
communitysomewhere,scaredoftellingtheirfamilies,
scared of telling their friends, scared of what the reac-
tion would be – I’m hoping that they can find inspira-
tion,” he said.Avoicefortheparty:
EricDuncanonbeingthe
firstopenlygayToryMP
LAURASTONE
QUEEN'SPARKREPORTER
TORONTOTherearealotof
people...that
arealliesofthe
community,but
strugglewith
howtosayitERICDUNCAN
MPFORSTORMONT-
DUNDAS-SOUTHGLENGARRY