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THE NATION

WASHINGTON — In the
last week, Joe Biden has ex-
perienced one of the most
extraordinary comebacks in
the history of American
presidential politics, and the
nomination the former vice
president has pursued for
more than 30 years lies
within his grasp.
His remaining rival, Sen.
Bernie Sanders, now con-
fronts an achingly familiar
situation: Just like four years
ago, when he ran against Hil-
lary Clinton, he’s behind in
the delegate count, needing
big wins to even the score,
but with few obvious places
to find them.
Unless Sanders can
quickly pull off a comeback
of his own in what has be-
come a two-man race, the
Democratic presidential
contest could effectively be
over by a week from Tues-
day, when Arizona, Florida,
Illinois and Ohio hold pri-
maries.
The issue for the next
couple of weeks is whether
either candidate can expand
his existing coalition.
Let’s take a look, first, at
the key moments of Biden’s
recovery, then at the dele-
gate math that makes Sand-
ers’ position so challenging.

Major turning

points for Biden

When the Democratic
National Committee an-
nounced on Jan. 31 that it
was changing the rules on
qualifying for its mid-Febru-
ary presidential debate, a lot
of people cried foul.
“That’s the definition of a
rigged system,” said Jeff
Weaver, Sanders’ senior ad-
visor.
“They shouldn’t change
the rules to let a billionaire
on,” said Sen. Elizabeth
Warren.
The object of their scorn
was Michael R. Bloomberg.
The DNC had dropped the
requirement that debate
participants raise money
from donors, allowing the
billionaire former New York
mayor, who was funding his
own campaign, onto the
stage.
To this day, some people
believe the party bent its
rules to favor Bloomberg.
Nothing could be further
from the truth. Allowing
Bloomberg onto the debate
stage marked the beginning
of the end for him and the
start of Biden’s revival.
Bloomberg by that point
had already spent more
than $400 million in pursuit
of the nomination, creating a
public image through mas-
sive television advertising.
But as reporters who had
covered him as mayor fre-
quently said, Bloomberg live
was nothing like the char-
ismatic character created by
the ads. The contrast made
exposure on the debate
stage perilous — the equiva-
lent of the famous curtain
scene in “The Wizard of Oz.”
When the event took
place in Las Vegas, watched
by a record television audi-
ence, Warren quickly landed
rhetorical punches that
crumpled Bloomberg’s can-
didacy. He did somewhat
better in a second debate
one week later, but not
nearly enough to recover.
Bloomberg’s downfall co-
incided with Sanders’ rise.
The Vermont senator tri-
umphed in Nevada’s Feb. 22
caucuses, vaulting to the
lead in the Democratic race.
Those two developments
caused consternation
among many Democratic
elected officials and rank-
and-file voters who feared a
Sanders victory would hand
President Trump four more
years in the White House.
With the prospect of
Bloomberg as a well-heeled
savior evaporating, they
were desperate to get behind
an alternative.
To take advantage of that
desperation, Biden needed
to show he could win some-
where. South Carolina
would be the place.
For weeks, Biden and his
aides had been saying that
black voters, the most loyal
constituency the Democrats
have — and arguably the
ones who most urgently be-
lieve that defeating Trump
is a matter of survival —

would stand with him.

Heading into the week of the

South Carolina primary,

that confidence seemed

questionable. Polls sug-

gested Biden’s South Car-

olina “firewall” might crum-

ble.

Tom Steyer, the Califor-

nia billionaire philan-

thropist and activist, had

spent huge sums of his own

fortune to advertise in the

state with messages aimed

at black voters. Maybe he

would draw away support.

Perhaps Pete Buttigieg or

Sen. Amy Klobuchar or War-

ren could break through to a

black audience.

Whatever prospects any

of them had, however, ended

abruptly on Feb. 26 when

Rep. James E. Clyburn, the

leading African American

political figure in South Car-

olina, endorsed Biden.

Clyburn’s words reassured

wavering voters, and three

days later Biden triumphed,

pulling in 49% of the vote in a

multi-candidate field.

Of equal importance, the

results confronted Buttigieg

and Klobuchar with a stark

reality: Between the two of

them, they had received only

4% of the black vote in the

state, according to exit polls.

For a Democratic presi-

dential candidate, that’s not

tenable.

The next day, all of the

major candidates except

Sanders gathered in Selma,

Ala., for the annual com-

memoration of one of the

signal battles of the civil

rights movement of the

1960s, the Bloody Sunday at-

tack by state troopers and

sheriff ’s deputies against

peaceful marchers at the

city’s Edmund Pettus

Bridge.

As they watched Biden

receive cheers, Buttigieg

and Klobuchar were already

thinking through their with-

drawal. Buttigieg would

drop out of the race that

night, Klobuchar the next

morning. Both endorsed

Biden on Monday in hastily

choreographed events in

Texas, where former Rep.

Beto O’Rourke also came on

board.

Individual political en-

dorsements don’t often

carry a lot of weight, but the

wave of them sent a clear sig-

nal to voters that they now

had a simple choice, Biden

or Sanders. From Maine to

Texas, the larger share

chose Biden, even in states

where he hadn’t aired a sin-

gle ad or opened an office.

Sanders won his home

state, and Colorado, Utah

and California. Even in Cali-

fornia, however, his success

illustrated his limits. In The

Times’ final Berkeley Insti-

tute of Governmental Stud-

ies poll, which was con-

ducted before the South

Carolina vote, Sanders got

34% of California voters.

That gave him a 2-1 lead in a

crowded field in which Biden

was in fifth place.

A week later, Biden sits in

second place in the ongoing

California vote tally, with

25%. Sanders stands at 34%,

exactly as the poll forecast.

In all the turmoil, he appears

not to have gained an inch.

Sanders’ steep

road forward

As of Friday afternoon,

Biden led Sanders in the del-

egate count, 664 to 573. The

now-suspended candidacies

of Warren, Buttigieg,

Klobuchar and Bloomberg

have 158 delegates who are

now, effectively, free agents.

There are more than

2,600 pledged delegates left

to allocate, including several

hundred from states that

voted Tuesday where offi-

cials are still tallying final

votes. California, for exam-

ple, is only about halfway

through the vote count, with

more than 3 million ballots

left to process, so only some

of the state’s 415 delegates

have been allocated.

To get to the 1,991 dele-

gates needed for the nomi-

nation, Biden needs just

over 51% of the remaining

delegates, and Sanders

needs just short of 55%.

That doesn’t sound like a

big gap. In reality, it’s a

chasm.

The problem for Sanders

is that each primary he loses

will put that 55% goal further

out of reach, and barring a

sudden change in fortune,

he’s on track to lose a bunch.

His best prospects — states

with large numbers of white

liberals and Latinos — have

mostly voted already, and

many of the remaining

states are not promising for

him.

On Tuesday, for example,

Mississippi joins Missouri,

Michigan and Washington

state in holding primaries.

Mississippi’s Democratic

electorate looks a lot like

South Carolina’s and Ala-

bama’s, which voted this

week — heavily African

American and not particu-

larly sympathetic to Sand-

ers’ brand of democratic so-

cialism.

Biden took 63% of Ala-

bama’s vote and won 84% of

its delegates since several

candidates received too few

votes to win any. In South

Carolina, he took 72% of the

delegates. Mississippi’s re-

sults almost surely will fall in

that range.

In Missouri, Sanders al-

most caught Clinton four

years ago. But that’s largely

because he won nearly half

of the voters who called

themselves moderate or

conservative, according to

the exit poll. Against Clin-

ton, Sanders did well with

conservative voters in a

number of states, and in

Missouri they made up for

black voters in St. Louis and

Kansas City who sided with

Clinton.

But those weren’t pro-

Sanders voters; they were

anti-Clinton. And in prima-

ries so far this year, Sanders

has done poorly with moder-

ate and conservative voters.

Figure Missouri for an-

other Biden win.

Washington could be a

good state for Sanders, but

it’s hard to know. Four years

ago, the state awarded dele-

gates through caucuses; this

year it is using a primary,

which will probably have

much higher turnout.

Sanders did very well in

2016 in states that held cau-

cuses, which tend to reward

candidates who have sup-

port from highly motivated

activists, but he pressed the

DNC to eliminate caucuses

this year in favor of prima-

ries. That was a praise-

worthy step toward greater

democratic participation,

but it may hurt his chances.

That leaves Michigan as

the big test for Tuesday.

Sanders won the state in an

upset in 2016. He’s changed

his schedule to add addi-

tional time there this week-

end. If he can win it again

and get a big majority of its

125 delegates, he can keep

his hopes alive.

But Biden has support

from the state’s popular

Democratic governor,

Gretchen Whitmer. Sanders

campaigned against her in

the Democratic primary in

2018 — and against several of

the state’s members of Con-

gress. If Biden can win the

state, he could put the nomi-

nation almost out of Sand-

ers’ reach.

Math shows Sanders is close to defeat

After an extraordinary comeback, the nomination Biden has sought for decades is within reach

By David Lauter

JOE BIDENwon South Carolina just in time to reassure establish-

ment Democrats who were concerned about a Sanders win.

Dennis Van TineStar Max

BERNIE SANDERS’best prospects have mostly voted already, and

many of the remaining states are not promising for him.

Caitlin O'HaraGetty Images

Unless Sanders can quickly

pull off a comeback of his

own, the Democratic race

could effectively be over by

a week from Tuesday.

■■■ ELECTION 2020 ■■■