A6 eZ re THE WASHINGTON POST.SATURDAy, MARCH 7 , 2020
THE CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
BY JULIE ZAUZMERThe Rev. J im Bakker, televange-
list and salesman, has long pro-
moted “ Silver Solution” — a scien-
tifically dubious medication
made from the precious metal —
to cure all sorts of ailments.
On Feb. 12, just as the novel
coronavirus was starting to make
headlines, Bakker asked a guest
on his TV s how whether the silver
tonic he sells on his website just
might cure this new illness as well.
“It hasn’t been tested on this
strain of the coronavirus, but it’s
been tested on other strains of the
coronavirus, and has been able to
eliminate it within 12 hours. To tal-
ly eliminates it, kills it, deactivates
it and then i t boosts your immune
system,” said guest Sherrill Sell-
man, as Bakker interjected, “yeah,
yeah.”
As they talked, an advertise-
ment was plastered across the
screen: Those seeking a cure for
coronavirus or another illness
could g et f our tubes of Silver Solu-
tion gel for $80 at JimBakker-
Show.com. Or, for $125, t hey could
buy a variety p ack of two bottles of
Silver Solution liquid, two tubes of
gel and three lozenges.
That w as false a dvertising, N ew
York’s top prosecutor’s office
claimed in a cease-and-desist let-
ter to Bakker this week.
Calling herself “extremely con-
cerned” about the clip from the
show, Lisa Landau, the chief of the
attorney general’s health-care bu-
reau, told Bakker there is no
known m edicine for the novel cor-
onavirus, which has sickened pa-
tients around the world, includ-
ing in New York.
“Your show’s s egment m ay m is-
lead consumers as to the effective-
ness of the Silver Solution product
in protecting against the current
outbreak.... Any representation
on the Jim Bakker Show that its
Silver Solution products are effec-
tive at c ombatting and/or treating
the 2019 novel coronavirus vio-
lates New York law,” s he wrote.
Landau said any future claims
promoting Silver Solution as a
cure would violate laws against
false a dvertising.
New York Attorney General Le-
titia James (D) said in a statement
Thursday that her office is on the
alert for other scams about coro-
navirus, though the letter to Bak-
ker was the only action she men-
tioned taking thus far.
The statement warned New
Yorkers about unproven treat-
ments, excessive prices f or health-
care products and fake charitable
solicitations.
Bakker has been in trouble with
the law before: He served more
than four y ears in prison on feder-
al fraud charges in the 1990s but
has since rebuilt some of the tel-
evangelism empire he had c reated
with then-wife Ta mmy Bakker.
On Thursday, Bakker’s staff in-
sisted Silver Solution isn’t a fraud.
An assistant manager at Bakker’s
store directed a reporter to a state-
ment about the medication and
coronavirus.
The statement described Sell-
man, the guest who said on the
show that Silver Solution treats
other illnesses in the coronavirus
family, as an “integrative natur-
opathic doctor and mind-body
psychotherapist.” It also quoted
the CEO of the company that man-
ufactures Silver Solution, who
claimed researchers have studied
his product’s effectiveness at
treating viruses including HIV.
Bakker’s show said it would
provide links to those studies
“soon.”
“We believe in Optivida Silver
Solution... because of the re-
search and the advice from medi-
cal professionals that we respect,”
the show’s statement said. It en-
couraged viewers to get health
information from the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention
and the World Health Organiza-
tion as well as its own broadcasts.
U.S. government experts have
warned patients about Silver So-
lution and similar t onics for years.
The National Institutes of Health
says that colloidal silver — tiny
particles of silver metal suspend-
ed in a liquid meant for drinking
as a dietary supplement — h as not
been proved effective as a medi-
cine and can in fact be dangerous.
Colloidal silver can make other
medications, including antibiot-
ics, less effective. And drinking
silver can cause patients’ skin to
turn grayish-blue, often forever.
Nevertheless, Bakker frequent-
ly promotes Silver Solution on his
show, which is a mix of end-times
prophecies and vigorous sales-
manship for products such as a
“90-meal bucket” meant to feed a
family in an emergency, with a
shelf life of 30 years and a price tag
of $3,000.
Bakker sells Silver S olution a s a
mist that can be sprayed into the
mouth or on the skin; a spray for
the nose and the eyes; a drop to go
into the ears; a gel for the skin;
and a liquid for drinking up to
three t imes a day.
“By resonating at just the right
frequency, Silver disrupts foreign
elements without disturbing the
body’s natural environment,” his
website says. It adds: “Silver has
natural, God-given actions unlike
any other metal or element that
exists.”
Landau, the New York health-
care prosecutor, told Bakker all
Silver Solution products on his
website should come with a dis-
claimer: “These statements have
not been evaluated by the Food
and Drug Administration. This
product is not intended to diag-
nose, treat, cure, or prevent any
disease.”
Not complying within 10 busi-
ness days could mean the show
would face a lawsuit, she wrote.
[email protected]Televangelist told not to
peddle unproven cure
BY JOEL ACHENBACH
AND ERICA WERNERThe question everyone is ask-
ing: Just how deadly is the novel
coronavirus? As it spreads across
the planet, researchers are des-
perate to understand the conta-
giousness and lethality of covid-
19, a respiratory disease that has
killed more than 3,400 people.
Evidence is mounting that the
disease is most likely to result in
serious illness or death among
the elderly and people with exist-
ing health problems. It has little
effect on most children, for rea-
sons unknown.
The World Health Organiza-
tion on Tuesday stated that the
global case fatality rate is 3.4 per-
cent. But that figure can be mis-
leading if not framed correctly,
and the official case fatality rate is
likely to drop in coming months.
U.S. health officials on Thurs-
day briefed lawmakers in Con-
gress and said they believe the
case fatality rate in this country
will most likely be in the range of
0.1 to 1.0 percent , meaning some-
where between one of every thou-
sand and one of every hundred
people with covid-19 will die.
That w ould make covid-19 clos-
er in lethality to influenza in
severe or pandemic flu seasons,
according to an article in the New
England Journal of Medicine co-
authored by Anthony Fauci, di-
rector of the National Institute of
Allergy and Infectious Disease.
The article states that the true
fatality rate of covid-19 “may be
considerably less” than 1 percent
and “may ultimately be more akin
to those of a severe seasonal
influenza (which has a case fatali-
ty rate of approximately 0.1%) or
a pandemic influenza (similar to
those in 1957 and 1968) rather
than a disease similar to SARS or
MERS, which have had case fatal-
ity rates of 9 to 10% and 36%,
respectively.”
The WHO’s fatality percentage,
announced Tuesday, i s based sim-
ply on the number of deaths
globally (the numerator) and the
number of confirmed cases of
covid-19 (the denominator). As of
Friday the WHO had counted
3,400 deaths among 100,000 cas-
es.
But the official numbers do not
capture the full scope of the
contagion. The actual number of
deaths from the virus might be
somewhat higher, in part because
of undercounting or misdiagno-
sis. There is little doubt that the
number of infections — in many
cases among people who either
did not get sick or thought they
had only a mild illness — is larger
than the official case count. The
infection rate will not be known
until researchers do broad sur-
veys to see who has developed
antibodies to the virus.
“Many people don’t get sick
and don’t get tested,” Brett P.
Giroir, Assistant Secretary for
Health at the U.S. Department of
Health and Human Services, told
reporters Thursday after partici-
pating in a closed-door briefing
for House members.
“The modeling suggests that
we have a denominator problem.
If you’re really sick and you have
respiratory failure, you go see
someone and you get tested. But
if you’re not very ill, as most
people are not, they do not get
tested. They d o not get counted in
the denominator, especially in a
crisis situation like in China,” hesaid.
As late as Friday afternoon, the
United States had 14 deaths
among 2 60 cases, a rate of 5.4 per-
cent. But testing has been slow in
the United States, and as it be-
comes more widespread the rate
will plummet.
“Your denominator is going to
explode, which will push the case
fatality rate down. But it will also
push the number of affected per-sons and communities up,” said
Kathleen Jordan, vice president
and chief medical officer of Saint
Francis Memorial Hospital in San
Francisco.
The enigmatic nature of the
new virus and the many un-
knowns about its trajectory have
put people on edge, she said.
“I do think people tend to
panic when it’s unknown. Just
having information about how it
spread, how to protect yourself, it
calms people down and makes
them act appropriately and effec-
tively,” she said.
A report from 25 researchers
from China, the United States
and six other countries and pub-
lished by the WHO suggests the
current high fatality rate is
skewed by the terrible death tollin the first chaotic weeks of the
outbreak in Wuhan, China. Peo-
ple who became sick in the first
10 days of January experienced a
17.3 percent death rate, the report
said.
But among people developing
symptoms after Feb. 1, the fatality
rate has been 0.7 percent, the
report said, noting that “the stan-
dard of care has evolved over the
course of the outbreak.”The first cases in Wuhan were
identified at t he end of December.
Not until Jan. 23 did Chinese
authorities impose severe travel
restrictions designed to contain
the spread of the coronavirus,
officially known as SARS-CoV-2.
In those early days, doctors
struggled to understand what
they were dealing with and how
best to treat patients and “were
quite overwhelmed,” said Chris-
tine Kreuder Johnson, an epide-
miologist at the University of
California at Davis.
“That can create a high case
fatality rate because you can only
tackle the most severe cases,” she
said. “You’ve got patients that
might not get the same care they
might get in other circumstances
— in peacetime, as we say.”Another new study from Chi-
na, based on 1,099 patients in 552
hospitals across the country, put
the case fatality rate there at
1.4 percent.
“A t this point it’s all specula-
tive. We don’t know the denomi-
nator,” said Columbia University
epidemiologist Ian Lipkin, who
recently visited China.
The China data does not neces-
sarily predict what will happen
elsewhere, said Michael Oster-
holm, an infectious-disease ex-
pert at t he University of Minneso-
ta.
“You can’t just take Chinese
data and suddenly lay it over the
United States. And say it’s going
to be 2 percent or 3,” he said. “It’s
going to be totally a reflection of
the at-risk population. What are
the underlying risk factors? Obe-
sity? Smoking? Over 60 percent
of Americans have an underlying
health problem that could con-
tribute to a poor outcome with
this event.”
China has a higher case fatality
rate than South Korea, where, as
of Thursday, 35 people had died
among 6,088 cases — a rate of
0.57 percent. Germany has re-
ported 262 cases but zero deaths.
A new study suggests the virus
has split into two strains and a
less aggressive strain is now more
prevalent than a deadlier one.
But that is a preliminary report
and not confirmed.
The report said reviews of 103
samples of the virus showed two
distinct strains, which the au-
thors name the L and the S
strains. They hypothesized that
the more aggressive L strain sick-
ened people to the point that they
sought medical treatment or oth-
er interventions. That wouldhave made it less likely to spread.
A less aggressive strain, the
S type, could have circulated
more easily over time among
people who continued about
their daily lives.
Jeffery Ta ubenberger, a virolo-
gist at the National Institute of
Allergy and Infectious Diseases,
said he would have to see “a lot
more convincing data before I
would begin to think that hypoth-
esis was supported.”
He said the study did not
contain enough data showing a
clear link between the different
strains and different medical out-
comes. But animal viruses do
mutate soon after they enter a
new species, such as human be-
ings, he said: “Certain adapta-
tions are necessary. It’s likely that
change will occur early on in the
pandemic.”
Ta ubenberger is an expert on
influenza pandemics, including
the 1918 Spanish Flu, the worst in
history. Estimates of the fatality
rate of Spanish Flu are impeded
by a lack of data on how many
people were infected. But
Ta ubenberger said a plausible
estimate is a 1.1 percent case
fatality rate in the United States
and 4.6 percent globally.
In 1957, the influenza pandem-
ic probably had a U.S. fatality rate
of about 0.07, he said.
Asked to appraise the current
coronavirus epidemic, he said,
“Right now, to me, it looks like it’s
sort of on par with an influenza
pandemic in its impact. Obvious-
ly we hope it’s not going to be a
1918-like impact. It’s something
we definitely need to take seri-
ously.”
[email protected]
[email protected]U.S. fatality rate predicted to be roughly equal to seasonal or pandemic flu
“I do think people tend to panic when
i t’s unknown. Just having information
about how it spread, how to protect yourself,
i t calms people down and makes them
act appropriately and effectively.”
Kathleen Jordan, of Saint Francis Memorial Hospital in San FranciscoBY SUSAN SVRLUGAThe University of Washington
will not hold in-person classes or
exams for the remainder of the
quarter, the first large university
to take such a step in response to
the coronavirus outbreak.
The campuses remain open,
with dorms, dining halls, hospi-
tals and clinics operating.
Seattle University also an-
nounced Friday that it would rely
on virtual classes for the rest of
the winter quarter.
“People are feeling very re-
li eved,” said Kelty Pierce, a senior
and the president of the Associat-
ed Students of the University of
Washington. “This is something
that people have been asking for
all week.”
The move to virtual classes —
for at l east the rest of the month —
marked a dramatic shift in the
response to the threat by universi-
ty leaders and is l ikely a sign of
changes to come at other schools
as they contend with a rapidly
changing global crisis.
Colleges throughout the nation
have been bracing for the possibil-
ity of an influx of cases as the
coronavirus spreads. As the Seat-
tle region began reporting some
of the first cases of the disease —
and the f irst death — i n the United
States last week, many University
of Washington students and oth-
ers worried they would not be safe
in classrooms at the large public
university, which has more than
55,000 students at its three cam-
puses.Earlier this week, several cases
of the disease were confirmed
among people connected with
other colleges. When a student
tested positive for the virus, Yeshi-
va University in New York can-
celed classes at its Washington
Heights and Midtown campuses
until after March 10. On Friday,
Ye shiva’s president announced
that a rabbi who teaches two
classes had tested positive but did
not have symptoms.
Two community colleges near
Seattle closed to disinfect their
campuses after positive test re-
sults in a student and a faculty
member.
In Maryland, where three cases
were confirmed Thursday, the
leader of the public university
system announced Friday that he
was directing schools to verify
they could switch to online opera-
tions quickly if needed and to
reduce, when possible, large gath-
erings.
Jay A. Perman, chancellor of
the University of Maryland sys-
tem, emphasized in a statement
that he was not shutting down
classes and offices nor issuing a
mandate to cancel events. “ I am
advising that we be smart, and
apply our best judgment to a situ-
ation that is changing hourly,” he
wrote.
At Rice University in Houston,
classes and normal operations
continued Friday after a staff
member tested positive. The em-
ployee and the faculty, graduate
students and staff members who
had contact with the infectedworker remained in quarantine,
and school officials announced
they would move classes held in
the building where that person
had been last week.
Universities can take an array
of measures to reduce the risk of
transmission, said Sarah Van Or-
man, chief health officer at the
University of Southern California
and a member of the American
College Health A ssociation’s c oro-
navirus task force. That includes
encouraging washing hands fre-
quently and staying home if sick,
she said. Other measures will be
directed at keeping people away
from large gatherings, including
canceling events, holding classes
online and having people work
from home.
For several weeks, University of
Washington officials had been re-
assuring the campus that they
were following the guidance of
public health o fficials, that no rec-
ommendation had been made to
cancel classes and that there had
been no cases of the disease on
campus. Four people there tested
negative for the virus last month.
But the school announced Fri-
day that a s taff member had a
presumptive positive test result
for covid-19, the disease caused by
the virus. The staff member, who
is at home, has not been in the
off-campus building where the
employee works since last week,
according to a letter to the campus
from Geoffrey Gottlieb, a profes-
sor of medicine specializing in
infectious diseases who is interim
chair of the school’s disease advi-sory committee. The building has
been closed for cleaning.
Starting Monday, classes will
no longer meet in person, which
university officials said would en-
courage health precautions such
as social distancing. The quarter
is nearing its end, with spring
break in two weeks after exams.
Most classes have an online
component, and school officials
had been working to ramp up
their ability to teach online.
The Daily, a campus newspa-
per, reported faculty members
were s witching to virtual teaching
before the university mandated
the change, including a history
teacher who made a video of her
lecture Thursday after worrying
her coughing had been making
students uncomfortable.
The decision was starting to
feel inevitable, said Joseph Janes,
associate professor with the uni-
versity’s Information School and
chairman of the Faculty Senate.
“There was a slow but steady rise
of anxious concern and questions
about this,” he said. “For a lot of
people, this will let the air out of
the balloon.”
He canceled his late-afternoon
class Friday, a tiny graduate class
in statistics, to relieve students’
anxieties, and was thinking
through modified virtual classes
and whether he could squeeze in
more material or would need to
cut some. “So if I don’t get to
multiple regression next week, I
don’t get to multiple regression,”
he said.
[email protected]University of Washington closes its classrooms
STuArT ISeTT For THe WASHIngTon PoST
While in-person classes and exams at the University of Washington will be closed for the rest of the quarter to prevent the spread of the
coronavirus, the school said its dorms, dining halls, hospitals and clinics will keep operating. Above, a library at the Seattle campus.