Leaders 7I
n 1993thisnewspapertoldtheworldtowatchtheskies.Atthe
time, humanity’s knowledge of asteroids that might hit the
Earth was woefully inadequate. Like nuclear wars and large vol-
canic eruptions, the impacts of large asteroids can knock seven
bells out of the climate; if one thereby devastated a few years’
worth of harvests around the globe it would kill an appreciable
fraction of the population. Such an eventuality was admittedly
highly unlikely. But given the consequences, it made actuarial
sense to see if any impact was on the cards, and at the time no
one was troubling themselves to look.
Asteroid strikes were an extreme example of the world’s wil-
ful ignorance, perhaps—but not an atypical one. Low-probabili-
ty, high-impact events are a fact of life. Individual humans look
for protection from them to governments and, if they can afford
it, insurers. Humanity, at least as represented by the world’s gov-
ernments, reveals instead a preference to ignore them until
forced to react—even when foresight’s price-tag is small. It is an
abdication of responsibility and a betrayal of the future.
Covid-19 offers a tragic example. Virologists, epidemiologists
and ecologists have warned for decades of the dangers of a flu-
like disease spilling over from wild animals. But when sars-
cov-2 began to spread very few countries had the winning com-
bination of practical plans, the kit those plans required in place
and the bureaucratic capacity to enact them.
Those that did benefited greatly. Taiwan has, to
date, seen just seven covid-19 deaths; its econ-
omy has suffered correspondingly less.
Pandemics are disasters that governments
have experience of. What therefore of truly nov-
el threats? The blazing hot corona which envel-
ops the Sun—seen to spectacular effect during
solar eclipses—intermittently throws vast
sheets of charged particles out into space. These cause the
Northern and Southern Lights and can mess up electric grids and
communications. But over the century or so in which electricity
has become crucial to much of human life, the Earth has never
been hit by the largest of these solar eructations. If a coronal
mass ejection (cme) were to hit, all sorts of satellite systems
needed for navigation, communications and warnings of mis-
sile attacks would be at risk. Large parts of the planet could face
months or even years without reliable grid electricity (see Brief-
ing). The chances of such a disaster this century are put by some
at better than 50:50. Even if they are not that high, they are still
higher than the chances of a national leader knowing who in
their government is charged with thinking about such things.
The fact that no governments have ever seen a really big cme,
or a volcanic eruption large enough to affect harvests around the
world—the most recent was Tambora, in 1815—may explain their
lack of forethought. It does not excuse it. Keeping an eye on the
future is part of what governments are for. Scientists have pro-
vided them with the tools for such efforts, but few academics
will undertake the work unbidden, unfunded and unsung. Priv-
ate business may take some steps when it perceives specific
risks, but it will not put together plans for society at large.
Admittedly, neither the Earth’s volcanoes nor the Sun’s co-ronacanbecontrolled.Butearly-warningsystemsarepossible,
and so is thought-through preparedness. Historically active vol-
canoes near large cities, such as Fuji, Popocatépetl and Vesuvius,
are well monitored, and there are at least plans for evacuation
should it seem necessary. It would not be that hard to extend this
sort of care to all potentially climate-altering volcanoes.
Governments could also ensure that grid operators have plau-
sible plans for what to do if dscovr, a satellite that hangs be-
tween the Earth and the Sun, provides a half-hour warning that a
cmeis on its way, as it is designed to do. Ensuring that there are
offline backups for some vital bits of grid equipment would be
more expensive than a volcano-alarm, and would reduce, not
eliminate, risk. But it would be worth the effort.
Nor would it be that hard to provide better early warning of
possible pandemics. Stopping all transmission of new patho-
gens from wild animals is a fool’s errand—though putting a limit
on the most intensive farming and egregious exploitation of
wild ecosystems would help. But, again, risk can be reduced.
Monitoring the viruses found in animals and people where such
transfers seem most likely is eminently feasible (see Science sec-
tion). For countries to trust each other to do so might be a chal-
lenge; so would achieving the sort of transparency which would
make such trust unnecessary. But if there were ever to be a mo-
ment to try, it is surely today. Before the Indian
Ocean tsunami of 2004 there were few early-
warning systems for tsunamis. Now, thankfully,
there are many.
It might seem quixotic to insist on esoteric
preparedness when there are greater threats
staring the world in the face, including cata-
strophic climate change and nuclear war. But
this is not an either/or. The structural changes
needed to reduce climate risks—changes many countries are
now pursuing, if with insufficient urgency—are of a different or-
der from those needed under other headings. What is more, the
approaches which make sense for arcane threats have implica-
tions for more familiar ones, too. Thinking about risk reduction,
rather than elimination, should encourage steps such as taking
nuclear weapons off continuous alert and new approaches to
arms control. Taking environmental monitoring more seriously
could help provide an early warning for sudden shifts in the pat-
terns of climate disruption, just as it could detect rising magma
under faraway mountains of which the world knows little.
Scanning the future for risks and taking proper note of what
you see is a mark of prudent maturity. It is also a salutary expan-
sion of the imagination. Governments which take seriously
ways the near future could be quite unlike the recent past might
find new avenues to explore and a new interest in sustaining
their achievements well beyond a few turns of the electoral cycle.
That is exactly the sort of attitude that stewardship of the envi-
ronment and the containment of armed conflict require. It can
also be a relief. Almost all the large asteroids which can come
close to the Earth have now been found. None is a near-term
threat. The world is not just a demonstrably safer place than it
seemed. It is also a better place for having found it out. 7The next catastrophe
Governments routinely ignore seemingly far-out risks. Rocked by a global pandemic, they need to up their gameLeaders