The New York Times - USA (2020-07-04)

A12 N THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONALSATURDAY, JULY 4, 2020

New Deal put America back on its

feet after the Great Depression.

With millions of Britons facing

joblessness, and a mammoth re-

building project at home, Mr.

Johnson’s government scarcely

has the bandwidth to reestablish

Britain as an energetic player on

the global stage. His ministers no

longer invoke the phrase Singa-

pore-on-Thames, which once de-

scribed the kind of agile, lightly

regulated, free-trading power-

house that they envisioned

emerging from Brexit.

Moreover, the geopolitical land-

scape has shifted significantly

since the Brexit referendum —

and even more rapidly since the

pandemic spread around the

world. With rivalry and antago-

nism between China and the West

on the rise, Britain as a free agent

will be caught uncomfortably in

between, constantly forced to

choose sides in a postpandemic

world.

“One consequence of a post-

globalization world is that people

will start to think in a defensive

way about blocs,” said Mark Mal-

loch Brown, a former deputy sec-

retary general of the United Na-

tions. “Britain is adrift without a

bloc. That is going to be challeng-

ing, and a first example of this is

Hong Kong.”

British diplomats showed skill

in lining up the United States, Can-

ada and Australia to sign a stern

letter to the Chinese government

about the new law. But in defend-

ing the rights of those who hold

British overseas passports, Brit-

ain is on its own. Neither the Euro-

pean Union, so recently forsaken

by Britain, nor the United States,

largely indifferent to human

rights under President Trump, is

eager to join that fight.

Mr. Johnson once cast Britain’s

independence as a competitive

advantage. He said it would allow

the country to pursue trade agree-

ments with China, the United

States or anyone else, unencum-

bered by the European Union.

“As Global Britain, our range is

LONDON — Prime Minister
Boris Johnson and his pro-Brexit
allies have long promised that
once Britain broke free of the Eu-
ropean Union, it could play a bold
new role on the world stage — one
they dubbed Global Britain. For a
few days this week, it looked as if
they were actually making good
on that promise.
When China imposed a new se-
curity law on Hong Kong, Mr.
Johnson not only condemned the
Chinese government, he also
threw open Britain’s doors to
nearly three million residents of
the former British colony who
were eligible for residency in Brit-
ain. It was a strong, some even
said brave, stand by a long-de-
parted colonial government
against the oppression of a rising
superpower.
But it was, in the end, also a
signpost of Britain’s diminished
stature: The Chinese threatened
retaliation, while Mr. Johnson’s
ministers admitted that there was
nothing they could do if China re-
fused to allow those people to
leave Hong Kong.
“We’re a medium-size power
that needs to work with others to
secure what we want around the
world,” said Chris Patten, who
served as the last British gover-
nor of Hong Kong. Leaving the
European Union, he said, had de-
prived Britain of its most natural
partner “in trying to deal with
these global issues.”
The clash with China laid bare
deeper contradictions in Mr. John-
son’s post-Brexit vision: Britain
wants to go global at a time when
globalization is in retreat. It has
cast off from the world’s largest
trading bloc when the world is
more divided than ever into com-
peting regions. And it is trying to
carve out an overseas role just as
the coronavirus pandemic has
crippled its domestic economy.
Mr. Johnson’s model is no long-
er Winston Churchill, the symbol
of Britain’s imperial reach, but
Franklin D. Roosevelt, whose

not confined to the immediate Eu-

ropean hinterland as we see the

rise of new powers,” said Mr. John-

son, then serving as foreign secre-

tary, in a speech to Chatham

House in December 2016. “It is

right that we should make a dis-

tinctive approach to policymak-

ing, as regards China.”

But as relations between China

and the United States have

soured, Mr. Johnson is caught in

the middle. After initially fending

off pressure from Mr. Trump to

keep the Chinese telecommunica-

tions giant Huawei out of Britain’s

5G digital network, Mr. Johnson

has been forced to reconsider.

Some analysts say they expect

him to reverse himself and impose

additional restrictions on Huawei.

Part of the reason is technical:

American sanctions on Huawei

have raised the security risks of

allowing the company to build a

large part of the network. But part

of it is geopolitical reality. In any

coming Cold War between the

United States and China, Britain

cannot afford to alienate its most

important ally.

“The danger is finding our-

selves trapped between President

Trump and President Xi,” Mr. Pat-

ten said, referring to the Chinese

leader, Xi Jinping.

Mr. Trump’s faltering political

fortunes pose another risk to Mr.

Johnson. The president has en-

thusiastically supported Brexit

and embraced the prime minister

as a like-minded populist. If Mr.

Trump were to lose in November,

Mr. Johnson would face an uncer-

tain new counterpart in former

Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

There is nothing to suggest that

Mr. Biden would not champion the

alliance with Britain. On some is-

sues, like Iran and climate change,

there would be fewer points of

friction. But Mr. Biden is not likely

to attach the same priority to a

trade deal that Mr. Trump has.

Former President Barack Obama

famously warned Britons they

would be at the “back of the

queue” for trade talks if they voted

for Brexit.

Mr. Biden is also a devoted

Irish-American who would look

out for Ireland’s interests, as Brit-

ain negotiates its long-term trade

relationship with the European

Union (a breakthrough in those

talks seems more elusive than

ever). The preservation of the

Good Friday Agreement, which

ended years of sectarian strife in

Northern Ireland, is an article of

faith among Democrats.

“Democrats are bewildered by

the logic of Brexit, to begin with,”

Mr. Malloch Brown said. “There is

a very strong Democratic Irish

lobby, which will be really watch-

ing like a hawk that this doesn’t

put Ireland at a disadvantage.”

To some critics, Global Britain

was never more than a marketing

slogan. After all, they said, Britain

has for centuries seen itself as a

global player, one that punched

above its weight economically and

militarily, long after the end of the

empire and throughout its 47

years of membership in Europe’s

institutions.

Today, in any event, powerful

Johnson advisers, like Dominic

Cummings, are more concerned

about transforming British soci-

ety than asserting its influence

abroad. They know the Conserva-

tive Party won its 80-seat Parlia-

mentary majority with the votes

of working-class people in Brit-

ain’s Midlands and north, who

care more about saving their jobs

than striking trade deals.

Since Mr. Johnson’s victory, he

has used the Global Britain label

mainly to put a gloss on a bureau-

cratic decision: merging two gov-

ernment ministries, the Foreign

Office and the Department for In-

ternational Development. The ra-

tionale, he said, is to align Britain’s

foreign aid with its strategic and

commercial interests. Some for-

mer diplomats said Mr. Johnson

should not stop there.

“If you really want a Global

Britain, and you want the Foreign

Office to have genuine policy heft,

then bring in the trade depart-

ment,” said Simon Fraser, who

once headed the Foreign Office.

There are grounds for hope

about Britain’s role. Its diplomats

are pushing a proposal to expand

the Group of 7 to include three

other big democracies, South Ko-

rea, India and Australia. Other

countries have welcomed it as an

alternative to Mr. Trump’s much-

maligned plan to invite Russia

back into the club.

Britain remains a substantial

military power, with nuclear

weapons and a close intelligence

relationship with the United

States and other allies — known

as the Five Eyes — that analysts

say has recovered since the

strains over Huawei.

Mr. Johnson made waves this

week with a front-page column in

an Israeli newspaper, in which he

urged Prime Minister Benjamin

Netanyahu not to annex occupied

territories in the West Bank. Mr.

Netanyahu has held off for now.

Britain’s opposition Labour

Party has also swung back to the

mainstream, after a period in

which it seemed influenced by

anti-American sentiment and was

tainted by allegations of anti-

Semitism. Lisa Nandy, the shadow

foreign secretary, has emerged as

a fresh new voice on Britain’s

place in the world.

If the pandemic finally punc-

tures the illusion of a Global Brit-

ain, Britain can take solace in

what has not changed. It remains

a midsize country, anchored in the

West, deeply intertwined with Eu-

rope and inescapably lashed to

the United States.

“It has made them realize that

they couldn’t have their cake and

eat it too,” said Thomas Wright, di-

rector of the Center on the United

States and Europe at the Brook-

ings Institution. “That is a delu-

sion that has now been stripped

away. They’ve been forced back

into their more traditional space.”

Union Jack flags lined the Mall in London on Jan. 31, the day Britain formally withdrew from the European Union after 47 years.

ANDREW TESTA FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Boris Johnson, Britain’s prime minister, condemned a new secu-
rity law that China has imposed on Hong Kong.

POOL PHOTO BY PAUL ELLIS

In Hong Kong, protesters hold up their open palms to demand

that the government meet their “five demands, and not one less.”

LAM YIK FEI FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

A Post-Brexit Britain

Strikes Out on Its Own

Clash With China Tests Its Limits

By MARK LANDLER

A desire to go global

when globalization

is in retreat.

PARIS — President Emmanuel
Macron shuffled prime ministers
on Friday, removing the most pop-
ular member of his government
and a potential rival in a bid to get
a fresh start in the wake of a coro-
navirus outbreak that has hit
France hard.
Mr. Macron traded in his prime
minister of three years, Édouard
Philippe, for a relatively unknown
technocrat, Jean Castex, who has
helped guide France out of the
health emergency.
But the president has taken a
chance in distancing himself from
Mr. Philippe: The outgoing prime
minister is the only French politi-
cal leader to emerge from the
health crisis with sharply en-
hanced credibility. By pushing out
Mr. Philippe, Mr. Macron is testing
the adage that, in politics, it is bet-
ter to keep one’s rivals close at
hand.
Mr. Macron made the move in
the face of an economic emer-
gency brought on by the virus, by
his own tenuous public support
and by a surge in popularity for
Green parties in local voting last
Sunday.
But Mr. Castex is not an envi-
ronmentalist or a leftist, suggest-
ing Mr. Macron was not cowed by
the election results or by demands
that he change his pro-business
stance. The contemptuous reac-
tions of French Greens and Social-
ists to Friday’s news suggested as
much.
By appointing Mr. Castex, the
low-profile mayor of a modest
town in the French Pyrenees who
has shaped France’s strategy to
ease lockdown restrictions, Mr.
Macron is signaling that he is
looking ahead. In doing so he is
butting up against public opinion,
though, as a poll revealed this
week that nearly 60 percent of the
French wanted Mr. Philippe to
stay in his post.

That in itself was a problem for

Mr. Philippe, as was his recent ap-

pearance on the cover of Paris

Match as France’s real strong-

man.

Mr. Macron “is very self-confi-

dent, he doesn’t want to be put in

the shade by anybody,’’ said Ger-

ald Grunberg, an emeritus politi-

cal scientist at Sciences Po univer-

sity. “He doesn’t want to be the

president of Edouard Philippe’s

government.”

Replacing prime ministers, like

firing managers in baseball, is a

well-established tradition for

modern French presidents look-

ing to create new energy. Mr. Ma-

cron, 42, has two years to go in a

rocky five-year term that has

been marked by social unrest,

some economic progress and,

now, a shaky business outlook.

For weeks, speculation about

the fate of Mr. Philippe — who

served an unusually long spell for

a French prime minister — had

swirled in the news media and in

political circles.

Mr. Macron had been expected

to reshape his cabinet after the co-

ronavirus dealt a heavy blow to

France, hoping to give his govern-

ment a fresh mandate in the last

stretch of a five-year term that

ends in 2022.

“There had to be a new signal, a

new conquest of the French, be-

cause we’ve lost so many,” said

Patrick Vignal, a parliamentary

deputy in Mr. Macron’s party from

southern France. “So Emmanuel

Macron was right to turn tables

and name a new prime minister.”

Mr. Grunberg noted that polls

suggested Mr. Philippe could be

the only political figure with

enough standing to take on Mr.

Macron in two years. Not a single

other serious potential challenger

has emerged on the right or the

left.

Yet according to the Élysée Pal-

ace, the seat of the French presi-

dency, the parting was cordial,

and the choice of Mr. Castex a nat-

ural one because he was seen as

transcending the right-left divide,

an intense focus of Mr. Macron.

Mr. Castex, 55, is a graduate of

the same elite finishing school for

technocrats, the E.N.A., or Na-

tional Management School, as

both Mr. Macron and Mr. Philippe.

Yet Mr. Macron’s supporters on

Friday portrayed Mr. Castex as a

son of the soil.

“Jean Castex represents the Old

World, a rural elected official who

has had to face real problems,” Mr.

Vignal said. “He’s a graduate of

E.N.A., sure, but he’s got his feet in

the muck, and his head in the

stars.”

Later on Friday, the Élysée an-

nounced that Mr. Philippe, who

was re-elected mayor of Le Havre

last weekend, would be given a

new role in helping shape Mr. Ma-

cron’s Republic on the Move politi-

cal movement.

The reshuffle came the same

day that French prosecutors an-

nounced that Mr. Philippe was one

of three current or former officials

under investigation for possible

mishandling of the coronavirus

crisis. But the process is in a very

preliminary stage and may not

lead to formal charges or trial.

France is still dealing with the

aftermath of the initial coro-

navirus outbreak, which has led to

nearly 30,000 deaths in the coun-

try. France fared worse than Ger-

many in deaths and cases, but

considerably better than its north-

ern and southern neighbors, in-

cluding Britain.

The shake-up was all the more

expected after a strong showing

by Green parties in France’s mu-

nicipal elections last week, which

intensified pressure on Mr. Ma-

cron to change his governing

team. Mr. Macron’s party failed to

field serious candidates in any of

the major cities, a sign of its grass-

roots weakness, and the Greens

took Bordeaux, Lyon and Stras-

bourg.

Unlike many European coun-

tries, France has a system of gov-

ernment in which the president,

elected directly by the French

people, is the head of the execu-

tive branch and is usually the

main policy driver. The prime

minister and cabinet are account-

able to Parliament, but are ap-

pointed by the president and re-

sponsible for day-to-day govern-

ing.

Mr. Philippe had won plaudits

and popularity as a calm, steady

presence during the initial wave of

the virus. Where Mr. Macron lec-

tured his countrymen in lofty,

lengthy and martial declarations

about France’s state of “war,” Mr.

Philippe delivered unvarnished

facts. He laid out the steps toward

easing the country’s lockdown

without sugarcoating the chal-

lenges or exaggerating the dan-

gers.

In an interview on Thursday

with France’s regional press, Mr.

Macron praised Mr. Philippe for

helping him carry out “important

historic reforms in circumstances

that were often very hard” and

said they had a special “relation-

ship of trust.”

“I will have choices to make to

lead the new way,” Mr. Macron

said of a cabinet reshuffle. He said

that “there will be a new team,”

suggesting that much of the cab-

inet could disappear along with

Mr. Philippe.

Mr. Philippe, 49, was a rela-

tively unknown mayor of Le Ha-

vre, a port town in northern

France, when Mr. Macron ap-

pointed him prime minister in

2017. He helped shepherd some of
      Mr. Macron’s most important and
      contested legislative efforts, espe-
      cially the fiercely fought overhaul
      of France’s crazy-quilt pension
      system, which is still in the works.
      But Mr. Philippe is much more a
      man of France’s traditional right.
      “People like Édouard Philippe
      are very attached to balanced
      budgets,” said Mr. Grunberg, the
      political scientist. “Macron is not
      like that.”

Macron Replaces France’s Prime Minister in Bid to Reinvigorate Government

By ADAM NOSSITER

and AURELIEN BREEDEN

Édouard Philippe, left, the former French prime minister, handed his role to Jean Castex, who has

helped ease the country’s lockdown restrictions put in place because of the coronavirus pandemic.

LUDOVIC MARIN/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES

A new role in shaping

the Republic on the

Move crusade.