Nature - USA (2020-01-02)

Article

Extended Data Table 1 | Characteristics of the UK and US test sets

a

UK test set CI at 95% NHS BSP

Years 2012 to 2015 - 2011 to 2016

Sources 2 sites in the UK - All UK screening sites

No. women 25,856 - 10,257, 551

No. normals 25,588 (99.0%) (98.8, 99.1) 10,171,074 (99.1%)

No. cancers 268 (1.0%) (0.9, 1.2) 86,477 (0.8%)

Recall rate 1,235 (4.8%) (4.5, 5. 1 ) 427,457 (4.2%)

Age

45 – 49 1,707 (6.6%) (6.2, 7. 1 ) 832,883 (8.1%)

50 – 52 4,399 (17.1%) (16.4, 17.7) 1,487,366 (14.5%)

53 – 54 2,742 (10.6%) (10.1, 11.1) 944,823 (9.2%)

55 – 59 6,034 (23.3%) (22.6, 24.0) 2,139,701 (20.9%)

60 – 64 5,457 (21.1%) (20.4, 21.8) 2,044,746 (19.9%)

65 – 70 4,575 (17.7%) (17.0, 18.3) 2,217,947 (21.6%)

>= 70 942 (3.6%) (3.3, 4.0) 590,085 (5.8%)

Cancer type

Invasive 204 (76.1%) (69.5, 81.8) 68,006 (78.6%)

Non-invasive 58 (21.6%) (16.2, 28.1) 17,733 (20.5%)

Micro-invasive - - 654 (0.8%)

Unknown 6 (2.2%) (0.9, 5. 6 ) 84 (0.1%)

Cancer size

(Invasive only)

< 10mm 41 (20.1%) (13.7, 28.3) 17,242 (25.4%)

10 – 15mm 44 (21.6%) (15.3, 30.4) 17,745 (26.1%)

15 – 20mm 39 (19.1%) (12.9, 27.2) 12,864 (18.9%)

20 – 50mm 61 (29.9%) (22.1, 38.7) 16,316 (24.0%)

>= 50mm 13 (6.4%) (3.1, 12.4) 1,527 (2.3%)

Unknown 6 (2.9%) (1.0, 7.9) 2,312 (3.4%)

b

US test set CI at 95% US BCSC

Years 2001 to 2018 - 2007 to 2013

Sources 1 US medical center - 6 BCSC registries

No. women 3,097 - 1,682,50 4

No. normals 2,738 (88.4%) (87.2, 89.8) 1,672,692 (99.4%)

No. cancers 359 (11.6%) (10.2, 12.8) 9,812 (0.6%)

Recall rate 929 (30.0%) (18.4, 21.5) 195,170 (11.6%)

Age

< 40 181 (5.9%) (4.8, 7. 1 ) 41,479 (2.5%)

40 – 49 1,259 (40.8%) (38.6, 43.0) 448,587 (26.7%)

50 – 59 800 (26.1%) (24.1, 28.1) 505,816 (30.1%)

60 – 69 598 (19.0%) (17.3, 20.9) 396,943 (23.6%)

>= 70 259 (8.2%) (7.0, 9. 5 ) 289,679 (17.3%)

Cancer type

Invasive 240 (66.9%) (60.5, 72.1) 5,885 (69.0%)

DCIS 100 (27.9%) (22.8, 33.9) 2,644 (31.0%)

Other 19 (5.3%) (3.2, 8. 9 ) -

For each feature, we constructed a joint 95% confidence interval on the proportions in each category. a, The UK test set was drawn from two sites in the UK over a four-year period. For reference,
we present the corresponding statistics from the broader UK NHSBSP^65. For comparison with national numbers, only cancers that were detected by screening are reported here. b, The US test
set was drawn from one academic medical centre over an eighteen-year period. For reference, we present the corresponding statistics from the broader US screening population, as reported
by the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC)^2. Cancers reported here occurred within 12 months of screening.
DCIS, ductal carcinoma in situ.