4 Special reportThe Midwest The EconomistJuly 25th 2020
2 Klobuchar, a senator from Minnesota, was offering centrist poli-
cies that appealed to many moderates.
This report makes a case that the hope for the region rests on its
bigger cities that power the local economy, host successful univer-
sities and may again draw skilled immigrants. It is not clear how
the turmoil of 2020 will change their prospects, but there are rea-
sons to worry. Mr Trump wants to stop foreign workers and refu-
gees coming. The covid-19 pandemic has already, temporarily,
halted inflows. Universities, such as the big ten public ones in the
region and many private ones, are unsure how to plan. If cities fal-
ter, the Midwest will suffer.
What of the longer term? The Midwest has been a laggard for too
long. A report by the Brookings Institution think-tank compared
the gains of three broad areas of America in the half-century to- It found economic expansion in the combined coastal zones
was a hearty 342%. The “western heartland”, a broad patch west of
the Mississippi, grew by 475%. The slowcoach was the “eastern
heartland”, the Midwest, which grew by just 187%.
Where is it?
Something depends on definitions. In 100-odd interviews for this
report, at least 100 notions of the Midwest were offered. Flash, who
serves the best fried chicken in Decatur, Illinois, says you are in
“mid America” when someone says “over and back”, not “to and
fro”. Farmers say crops tell the story: if you see cotton, it’s the
south; if wheat, the west. Only when gazing on great expanses of
corn or soyabean are you in the Midwest.
Values count as much as geography. It’s where you find “a good
small big”, says a tech entrepreneur in Cincinnati. Some contrast
“Midwestern nice” with “cut-throat” coastal folk. Others talk of the
people’s warmth, hospitality, work ethic or fondness for the out-
doors. The influence of Nordic and German settlers is obvious in
place names and a love of sausages and beer. A prevalence of fam-
ily-owned, midsized companies reminds some of Germany’s Mit-telstand. Others describe a solid sense of
duty. An Illinois trader says farm-gear pre-
viously owned by locals sells at a premium,
as everyone knows middle Americans take
better care of their tractors.
This report defines the region in two
overlapping ways. It includes a dozen
states, spread eastward from the middle of
America, below the Great Lakes. Most at-
tention is paid to a core of eight: Illinois,
Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Mis-
souri, Ohio and Wisconsin. The four at the
western fringe are Kansas, Nebraska and
North and South Dakota. This region of
68m people, one-fifth of all Americans, is
as populous as Britain or France.
Its collective gross product is worth
nearly $4trn, ranking alongside Germany’s
as the world’s fourth-biggest. Big compa-
nies call it home. Behemoths, with annual
revenues over $100bn, are in health care
(UnitedHealth, Cardinal Health), carmak-
ing (Fiat Chrysler, Ford, General Motors)
and retail (Kroger, Walgreens). Slightly
smaller are retailers like Target and Procter
& Gamble, State Farm, an insurer, Caterpil-
lar, a machine maker, and Marathon, in en-
ergy. Unlisted giants include Cargill, in
commodities, and Koch Industries, a big
conglomerate.
A second way to see the Midwest is
through its urban areas. Those who plan transport corridors think
of “megaregions”, as do investors seeking talent pools, consumers
or resources. The Federal Reserve treats cities with a broad hinter-
land as single labour markets. For example greater Chicago, with
some 9.8m people, stretches north from Illinois to Wisconsin and
south to Indiana. A focus on cities makes sense. When the British
novelist Anthony Trollope toured the area in 1861, he wrote how “in
this young world the cities have come first” and marvelled at Mil-
waukee, Cleveland and Chicago. Such spots—13 metropolitan re-
gions with at least 1m people, from the Twin Cities to Columbus—
show the greatest dynamism. Workers in big cities are more pro-
ductive than those in small places. Counting cities also lets this
report include Pittsburgh, just inside Pennsylvania.
These metro areas are not bound together. Rahm Emanuel, an
ex-mayor of Chicago, scoffs at suggestions that he is a Midwestern-
er, saying simply, “I’m from Chicago.” Cities compete for migrants,
investors, talent, federal funds and company headquarters. Uni-
versities sometimes co-operate. So do states. Seven governors co-
ordinated their responses to covid-19. Now and then, as over the
Great Lakes, they work out common environmental rules. More vi-
sionary folk talk of building a “hyperloop” system, to link places
such as Chicago, Columbus and Pittsburgh with high-speed pas-
senger and freight transport in depressurised pipes.
Yet no effective institutional structures unite the region. Rich-
ard Longworth, a writer in Chicago, argues that too many levels of
government exist. He notes how Chicagoland alone has 1,200 sep-
arate official units, mostly elected and with some tax-raising pow-
ers, ranging from townships and school districts to city mayors.
Hacking these back, not creating more, would make sense.
This report concludes that the Midwest can build on past pro-
gress, if its more successful cities can reinforce what they started
to get right. They must continue to find ways to grow, to lure peo-
ple and investors, and to become more equitable and attractive
places. In short, the key for the region’s future is urban. 7SOUTH DAKOTANORTHDAKOTAILLINOISMISSOURIKANSASNEBRASKAIOWAWISCONSINMINNESOTAMICHIGANINDIANAOHIOPANYWVKYTNNCVAMS ALTX OK ARNMCO
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