The Economist - USA (2020-08-08)

Leaders 7

I

nthenormalrunofthings,latesummerseesairportsinthe

emerging world fill with nervous 18-year-olds, jetting off to be-

gin a new life in the rich world’s universities. The annual trek of

more than 5m students is a triumph of globalisation. Students

see the world; universities get a fresh batch of high-paying cus-

tomers. Yet with flights grounded and borders closed, this mi-

gration is about to become the pandemic’s latest victim.

For students, covid-19 is making life difficult. Many must

choose between inconveniently timed seminars streamed into

their parents’ living rooms and inconveniently deferring their

studies until life is more normal. For universities, it is disas-

trous. They will not only lose huge chunks of revenue from for-

eign students but, because campus life spreads infection, they

will have to transform the way they operate (see Briefing).

Yet the disaster may have an upside. For many years govern-

ment subsidies and booming demand have allowed universities

to resist changes that could benefit both students and society.

They may not be able to do so for much longer.

Higher education has been thriving. Since 1995, as the notion

spread from the rich world to the emerging one that a degree

from a good institution was essential, the number of young peo-

ple enrolling in higher education rose from 16% of the relevant

age group to 38%. The results have been visible on swanky cam-

puses throughout the Anglosphere, whose bet-

ter universities have been the principal benefi-

ciaries of the emerging world’s aspirations.

Yet troubles are piling up. China has been a

source of high-paying foreign students for

Western universities, but relations between the

West and China are souring. Students with ties

to the army are to be banned from America.

Governments have been turning against uni-

versities, too. In an age when politics divides along educational

lines, universities struggle to persuade some politicians of their

merit. President Donald Trump attacks them for “Radical Left In-

doctrination, not Education”. Some 59% of Republican voters

have a negative view of colleges; just 18% of Democrats do. In

Britain universities’ noisy opposition to Brexit has not helped.

Given that the state pays for between a quarter and a half of ter-

tiary education in America, Australia and Britain, through stu-

dent loans and grants, the government’s enthusiasm matters.

Scepticism among politicians is not born only of spite. Gov-

ernments invest in higher education to boost productivity by in-

creasing human capital. But even as universities have boomed,

productivity growth in the rich-country economies has fallen.

Many politicians suspect that universities are not teaching the

right subjects, and are producing more graduates than labour

markets need. Small wonder that the state is beginning to pull

back. In America government spending on universities has been

flat in recent years; in Australia, even as the price of humanities

degrees doubles, so it will fall for subjects the government

deems good for growth.

There are questions about the benefits to students, too. The

graduate premium is healthy enough, on average, for a degree to

be financially worthwhile, but not for everybody. In Britain the

InstituteforFiscalStudies(ifs) hascalculatedthat a fifth of grad-

uates would be better off if they had never gone to university. In

America four in ten students still do not graduate six years after

starting their degree—and, for those who do, the wage premium

is shrinking. Across the world as a whole, student enrolment

continues to grow, but in America it declined by 8% in 2010-18.

Then came covid-19. Although recessions tend to boost de-

mand for higher education, as poor job prospects spur people to

seek qualifications, revenues may nevertheless fall. Govern-

ment rules will combine with student nerves to keep numbers

down. Last month the Trump administration said new foreign

students would not be allowed to enter the country if their class-

es had moved online. Sydney, Melbourne, unswand Monash,

four of Australia’s leading universities, rely on foreign students

for a third of their income. The ifsexpects losses at English uni-

versities to amount to over a quarter of one year’s revenues.

The damage from covid-19 means that, in the short term at

least, universities will be more dependent on governments than

ever. The ifsreckons that 13 universities in Britain risk going

bust. Governments ought to help colleges, but should favour in-

stitutions that provide good teaching and research or benefit

their community. Those that satisfy none of those criteria

should be allowed to go to the wall.

Those that survive must learn from the pan-

demic. Until now most of them, especially the

ones at the top of the market, have resisted put-

ting undergraduate courses online. That is not

because remote teaching is necessarily bad—a

third of graduate students were studying fully

online last year—but because a three- or four-

year degree on campus was universities’ and

students’ idea of what an undergraduate educa-

tion should look like. Demand for the services of universities

was so intense that they had no need to change.

Now change is being forced upon them. The College Crisis

Initiative at Davidson College says that less than a quarter of

American universities are likely to teach mostly or wholly in per-

son next term. If that persists, it will reduce the demand. Many

students buy the university experience not just to boost their

earning capacity, but also to get away from their parents, make

friends and find partners. But it should also cut costs, by giving

students the option of living at home while studying.

Back to the mortarboard

Covid-19 is catalysing innovation, too. The Big Ten Academic Al-

liance, a group of midwestern universities is offering many of its

600,000 students the opportunity to take online courses at other

universities in the group. There is huge scope for using digital

technology to improve education. Poor in-person lectures could

be replaced by online ones from the best in the world, freeing up

time for the small-group teaching which students value most.

Universities are rightly proud of their centuries-old tradi-

tions, but their ancient pedigrees have too often been used as an

excuse for resisting change. If covid-19 shakes them out of their

complacency, some good may yet come from this disaster. 7

The absent student

Covid-19 will be painful for universities, but it will also bring long-needed change

Leaders