434 | Nature | Vol 584 | 20 August 2020
Article
Table 2 | Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for COVID-19-related death
Characteristic Category COVID-19 death HR (95% CI)
Adjusted for age and sex Fully adjusted
Age 18–39 0.05 (0.04–0.07) 0.06 (0.04–0.08)
40–49 0.28 (0.23–0.33) 0.30 (0.25–0.36)
50–59 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref)
60–69 2.79 (2.52–3.10) 2.40 (2.16–2.66)
70–79 8.62 (7.84–9.46) 6.07 (5.51–6.69)
80+ 38.29 (35.02–41.87) 20.60 (18.70–22.68)Sex Female 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref)
Male 1.78 (1.71–1.85) 1.59 (1.53–1.65)
BMI (kg m−2) Not obese 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref)
30–34.9 (obese class I) 1.23 (1.17–1.30) 1.05 (1.00–1.11)
35–39.9 (obese class II) 1.81 (1.68–1.95) 1.40 (1.30–1.52)
≥40 (obese class III) 2.66 (2.39–2.95) 1.92 (1.72–2.13)
Smoking Never 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref)
Former 1.43 (1.37–1.49) 1.19 (1.14–1.24)
Current 1.14 (1.05–1.23) 0.89 (0.82–0.97)
Ethnicitya White 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref)
Mixed 1.62 (1.26–2.08) 1.43 (1.11–1.84)
South Asian 1.69 (1.54–1.84) 1.45 (1.32–1.58)
Black 1.88 (1.65–2.14) 1.48 (1.29–1.69)
Other 1.37 (1.13–1.65) 1.33 (1.10–1.61)IMD quintile 1 (least deprived) 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref)
2 1.16 (1.08–1.23) 1.12 (1.05–1.19)
3 1.31 (1.23–1.40) 1.22 (1.15–1.30)
4 1.69 (1.59–1.79) 1.51 (1.42–1.61)
5 (most deprived) 2.11 (1.98–2.25) 1.79 (1.68–1.91)Blood pressure Normal 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref)
High blood pressure or diagnosed hypertension 1.09 (1.05–1.14) 0.89 (0.85–0.93)
Respiratory disease excluding asthma 1.95 (1.86–2.04) 1.63 (1.55–1.71)
Asthmab (versus none) With no recent OCS use 1.13 (1.07–1.20) 0.99 (0.93–1.05)
With recent OCS use 1.55 (1.39–1.73) 1.13 (1.01–1.26)
Chronic heart disease 1.57 (1.51–1.64) 1.17 (1.12–1.22)
Diabetesc (versus none) With HbA1c < 58 mmol mol−1 1.58 (1.51–1.66) 1.31 (1.24–1.37)
With HbA1c ≥ 58 mmol mol−1 2.61 (2.46–2.77) 1.95 (1.83–2.08)
With no recent HbA1c measure 2.27 (2.06–2.50) 1.90 (1.72–2.09)
Cancer (non-haematological, versus none) Diagnosed <1 year ago 1.81 (1.58–2.07) 1.72 (1.50–1.96)
Diagnosed 1–4.9 years ago 1.20 (1.10–1.32) 1.15 (1.05–1.27)
Diagnosed ≥5 years ago 0.99 (0.93–1.06) 0.96 (0.91–1.03)Haematological malignancy (versus none) Diagnosed <1 year ago 3.02 (2.24–4.08) 2.80 (2.08–3.78)
Diagnosed 1–4.9 years ago 2.56 (2.14–3.06) 2.46 (2.06–2.95)
Diagnosed ≥5 years ago 1.70 (1.46–1.98) 1.61 (1.39–1.87)Reduced kidney functiond (versus none) eGFR 30–60 1.56 (1.49–1.63) 1.33 (1.28–1.40)
eGFR < 30 3.48 (3.23–3.75) 2.52 (2.33–2.72)
Liver disease 2.39 (2.06–2.77) 1.75 (1.51–2.03)
Stroke or dementia 2.57 (2.46–2.70) 2.16 (2.06–2.27)
Other neurological disease 3.08 (2.85–3.33) 2.58 (2.38–2.79)
Organ transplant 6.00 (4.73–7.61) 3.53 (2.77–4.49)
Asplenia 1.62 (1.19–2.21) 1.34 (0.98–1.83)
Rheumatoid arthritis, lupus or psoriasis 1.30 (1.21–1.38) 1.19 (1.11–1.27)
Other immunosuppressive condition 2.75 (2.10–3.62) 2.21 (1.68–2.90)
Models were adjusted for age using a four-knot cubic spline for age, except for estimation of age-group hazard ratios. Ref, reference group; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval.
aEthnicity hazard ratios were estimated from a model restricted to those with recorded ethnicity.
bFor OCS use, ‘recent’ refers to during the year before baseline.
cClassification by HbA1c is based on measurements within 15 months of baseline.
deGFR is measured in ml min−1 per 1.73 m (^2) and taken from the most recent serum creatinine measurement.