◼ ECONOMICS Bloomberg Businessweek August 31, 2020
33theywereearninginthecities,Singhsays.
A decades-longeconomicboompropelledmil-
lionsofIndiansoutofthecountrysideandintothe
cities,inanattempttoescapetheeconomicdepri-
vationandsocialoppressionthatwouldhaveoth-
erwisebeentheirlot.Nowthepandemicthreatens
toundotheirprogress.TheWorldBankestimates
measurestocontainthespreadoftheviruswill
push 12 millionIndiansintoabjectpoverty.
Ina countrythatcannotreallybesaidtohave
a safetynet,manymaynevermanagetoregain
theirpreviousstandardofliving.“Thiswillhave
animpactthatyouwillseeformanyyears,”says
NiranjanSahoo,a seniorfellowattheNewDelhi-
basedObserverResearchFoundation.“Whatever
gainswemadeinthelastsomanyyears,”hesays,
referringtosocialadvancesaswellasgrowthin
incomes,“wemightjustlose.”
Inrecentmonths, India’s governmenthas
boostedspendingtorevivetheeconomy,allocat-
ingmorefundstoexistingruraljobsprograms
andlaunchingonesformigrantsreturningtotheir
homevillages.Thebenefitsaren’talwaystrickling
downtothelowestcastes,villagersinthestatesof
MadhyaPradesh,Bihar,Gujarat,andUttarPradesh
saidininterviews.A representativefortheministry
ofruraldevelopment,whichadministersthejobs
program,didn’trespondtocallsseekingcomment.
ManishKumar,24,whoreturnedtoTevarvil-
lage,inUttarPradesh,sayscaste-baseddiscrim-
inationrestartedthe moment heenteredthe
quarantinecenterinhisvillage,whereuppercastes
separatedthemselvesfromDalits,whohavetradi-
tionallybeenbrandedasimpure.“WhenI goto
shop,theshopkeeperaskspeoplefrommycaste
towait,theyfirstcatertotheuppercastepeople,”
hesays.Kumarsayshehasn’treceivedanywork
underthegovernmentjobsschemeorreceived
foodaideventhoughhehastherequisitedocu-
ments.Theheadofhisvillagecouldn’tbereached.
Accordingtoa 2010studyonsocialdiscrim-
ination by Oxfam India, a New Delhi-based
nongovernmental organization, Dalits, members of
tribal groups, and Muslims are highly underrepre-
sented in better paid and higher status jobs, while
they are disproportionately concentrated among
those in the informal economy, where wages are
lower. That’s the area that’s been hit the worst
during the pandemic, making those from lower
castes more likely to fall back into severe poverty.
Sunil Kumar Chaurasia, a program officer with
Sahbhagi Shikshan Kendra, a nonprofit headquar-
tered in Uttar Pradesh, says it’s mostly Dalits who
suffer as they don’t have the connections upper
caste people have. Also, most are uneducated and
unawareoftheirrights,andhencecan’taccess
government programs, he says.
Women returnees also complain of ill treat-
ment. Some say they must line up for hours at the
village tap because upper caste families get access
first. Krishna Ahirwar traveled from New Delhi
to Aston with her husband and toddler in April,
where they were forced to stay in an area where
Dalits have historically lived. Landless and with no
ration card—the government document required to
get food aid—she’s found it hard to feed her fam-
ily. “We are thinking about whether to go back to
the city,” she says.
That’s not an attractive option. India has logged
3.1millioncoronaviruscases,andtheriskofconta-
gionis higherincrowdedareas.Also,jobsremain
scarceevenincities.Althoughlockdownrestrictionshave eased, business sentiment in India turned
negative in June for the first time in more than
a decade, according to an IHS Markit survey.
Bloomberg’s economists estimate gross domes-
tic product shrank 20.5% in the quarter ended in
June, the biggest contraction on record.
Bablu Ahirwar, a 32-year-old Dalit from
Lakheri, a village in Madhya Pradesh state, worked
as a laborer at construction sites in New Delhi. In
March he and his family moved into their ances-
tral mud house in the village. When he went to
seek work from the village headman, he says he
was told there were no projects. The headman of
his village couldn’t be reached for comment. “The
village headman is giving jobs to people from his
caste,” Ahirwar says. “Nobody has anything for
peoplelikeme.”�ShrutiSrivastavaTHE BOTTOM LINE Measures to limit Covid-19 infections will
push 12 million Indians into abject poverty, according to estimates
by the World Bank.▲ Bablu Ahirwar