The Economist - USA (2020-08-29)

The EconomistAugust 29th 2020 United States 21

2

H

owmuchofa riskisopening

schools during the pandemic? Expe-

rience from a number of countries is

starting to shed some light.

For the children themselves, covid-19

is not a big threat. They usually have mild

symptoms or none at all. Among chil-

dren with symptoms, only 0.1% of those

younger than ten and 0.3% of those aged

betweentenand 19 endupinhospital,a

studyfromBritainshows.Forschool-

agedchildren,a covid-19infectionisless

deadlythanmostfluinfections.

Thebigworryisthatchildrenmay

spreadthevirusthroughschool.Studies

inhouseholdswheresomeoneintro-

ducedtheinfectionusuallyfindthat

youngerchildrenaremuchlesslikelyto

catchthevirusthanadults.Theevidence

forolderchildrenismixed,withsome

studiesconcludingthattheyareassus-

ceptibletoinfectionasadults.

Butevenif childrenareinfectedless

easilyathome,whentheyminglea lot

chancesarethatmanyofthemwillpick

upthevirus.Inanovernightsummer

campinthestateofGeorgiainJuneat

leasthalfofthe 346 childrenattending

were infected.

Whether the sort of mingling that

happens at school is also a recipe for

disaster is best judged by looking at

countries where schools have reopened.

Data from England published on August

23rd are encouraging. Its schools re-

opened in June for some school years

beforeclosingforthesummera month

later.Inthatperiodonly0.01%ofpre-

schoolsandprimaryschoolshadco-

vid-19outbreaks,affecting 70 children

and 128 staff—outof25,470infections

recordedinEnglandasa whole.Ofthe 30

schooloutbreaksinvolved,theprobable

sourcein 20 wasa staffmember.Stu-

dentswerethesourceineightcases,and

intwocasesthesourcewasunclear.

Thatteachingisnotexceptionally

riskyisalsotheconclusionfromSwe-

den.Staffatitsnurseriesandprimary

schools,whichneverclosed,wereno

morelikelytobecomeinfectedthan

thoseinotherjobs.

Lessclearistheroleofsecondary

schoolsininfections.Theyhavestayed

shutalmosteverywhere.Outbreaksin

FranceandIsraelsuggestthatthevirus

couldspreadmoreeasilyinthemthanin

primaryschools.Olderstudentsmaybe

easiertokeepapartinclassrooms,but

goodlucktryingtostopthemcongregat-

ingafterwards.

Americawouldstruggletocontain

schooloutbreaksasmuchofEuropehas

done,becauseinfectionratesinmany

statesaretoohighandhealthofficialsare

overwhelmed.Toughchoicesmaybe

necessary.Britain’sprimeminister,Boris

Johnson,haswarnedthatpubsmight

havetoclose(tokeepinfectionsdown)

sothatchildrencangotoschool.In

America,whereanyconstraintonfree-

domgoesagainstthegrain,suchtrade-

offsmaybeaneventoughersell.

Don’t blame the children

Covid-19 in schools

International experience shows that schools need not be pandemic hotspots

Lessons in safety

have also been impeded. What evidence ex-

ists now does not look encouraging.

A team of five education scholars re-

cently calculated that American school-

children in 2020 learned 30% less reading

and 50% less maths than they would in a

typical year. Despite that, the top third of

pupils posted gains in reading. Data from

Opportunity Insights, an economic-re-

search outfit at Harvard University, show

that after lockdowns began in March pupils

from low-income neighbourhoods fell per-

manently behind on online maths course-

work, whereas those from richer areas

quickly rebounded (see chart).

Disruptions to schooling tend to lower

achievement while increasing inequality.

But rarely do so many shocks pile up at

once. First, schooling is now being con-

ducted online. Previous attempts at virtual

education in America have not looked pro-

mising. A study of virtual public schools in

Georgia by Carycruz Bueno of Brown Uni-

versity found significantly reduced test

scores in almost all subjects, and a ten-per-

centage-point drop in the chance of gradu-

ating from high school. Her results look

worse for black and Hispanic children.

Then there is the problem of access to

online classes. Nearly half of Native Ameri-

can pupils and 35% of black and Hispanic

ones do not have access to either a comput-

er or the internet at home, compared with

19% of whites. Worsening mental health

among poorer families will also hurt

achievement. Elizabeth Ananat of Barnard

College and Anna Gassman-Pines of Duke

University surveyed hourly service-sector

workers in Philadelphia who had young

children; half were screening positive for

anxiety or depressive disorders.

When school closes poor pupils lose a

social institution of last resort—one that

educates, feeds, counsels and sometimes

clothes them—whereas richer pupils are

more insulated. A new industry of “learn-

ing pods”, where a cluster of families pool

cash to pay for an in-person tutor, makes

the governess model accessible to many.

Scoot Education, whose normal business is

providing substitute teachers for schools,

quickly developed a sideline in learning

pods in California. At least 100 such pods

will be in place by the end of August, says

James Sanders, the company’s ceo. For

younger pupils the total cost of a pod,

shared among all parents, is $349 a day.

To some, parents who pay for pods or

other tutoring are complicit in deepening

inequality. Yet pods are more a flashy

symptom of educational inequality than

the cause. “Rich families find a way to op-

portunity-hoard no matter what, even if

this pandemic had not started,” says Sarah

Cohodes, a professor at Teachers College at

Columbia University. Some charities, like

the Tennessee Tutoring Corps, have tried to

spread access to tutors to less wealthy chil-

dren, but efforts at scale (a federally funded

national tutoring corps, say) look unlikely.

Failure to control the virus probably

spells lower future incomes for millions of

pupils. Without extraordinary interven-

tions, the long-run effect of the pandemic

on these students is predictable. The only

question is how deep the damage will be. 7

Class divisions

United States, school-student participation

in online maths coursework, 2020

%change*,byincomelevel

Source:OpportunityInsights *IndexedtoJan6th-Feb2nd

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

Jan Feb Mar Apr May

High

School summer

closures begin

National emergency

declared

Low

Middle