Time September 21/September 28, 2020
Partisans refuse to concede, and they
declare the election illegitimate. Presi-
dent Trump himself has indicated he
may not accept the outcome.
What happens then? Well, accord-
ing to a scenario planning exercise at the
Transition Integrity Project, a bipartisan
coalition of former officials concerned
about the disruptions to the 2020 elec-
tion, the result in every scenario except
a Biden landslide would be “street-level
violence and political crisis.” But what
kind of political crisis? Could we ever
again reach the point where American
polarization could trigger “massive resis-
tance” to federal authority or even out-
right national division?
For the past several years,
I’ve been watching the increase
in partisan enmity in the U.S.
with growing alarm. Multiple
social, cultural and religious fac-
tors are converging to create a
particularly toxic political stew.
America is being pulled apart.
This phenomenon is geographic,
ideological and spiritual.
Thanks to the decades-long
“big sort”—a phenomenon out-
lined by Bill Bishop in his excel-
lent 2009 book—Americans are
increasingly clustering in like-
minded communities, and sur-
rounding yourself with people
who think like you think has a profound
effect. As Cass Sunstein articulated,
when like-minded people gather, they
tend to grow more extreme.
His “law of group polarization” holds
that people who agree with each other
grow more enthusiastic in their beliefs
and agreement. If like-minded Second
Amendment advocates gather, they grow
more opposed to gun control. If like-
minded environmental activists gather,
they grow more committed to fighting
climate change. As geographic separa-
tion increases, ideological divisions
are magnified.
America is becoming extremely ef-
ficient at creating super clusters of like-
minded citizens. White evangelicals
famously delivered 81% of their 2016
votes to Donald Trump. Manhattan gave
87% of its vote to Hillary Clinton. She
won 91% of the vote in Washington, D.C.,
and 84% of the vote in San Francisco.
Almost 80% of Americans live
TheView Opener
under unified, one-party rule. A total
of 36 states—15 Democratic and 21
Republican—have “trifecta” govern-
ments where one party controls the
upper house, the lower house and the
governor’s mansion. Minnesota is the
only divided legislature in the entire U.S.
Moreover, states where red and blue
dominate are not scattered randomly
across the map. The West Coast and New
England are bastions of blue rule. The
South and large sections of the upper
Midwest represent the red heartland.
Now, let’s throw in another
ingredient—enmity. It is clear that
partisan Americans dislike each other a
great deal. We live separately, snarling
at each other across a growing divide.
The result is a politics of fear and rage,
where policy differences often take
a back seat to the list of grievances
that red possesses against blue and
blue against red.
Nothing I’m outlining here is new.
Commentators have called our dysfunc-
tional politics a form of “cold civil war,”
and the assumption is that one side or
the other will win, dominate the opposi-
tion and rule a united country.
That’s certainly a possibility, but
it’s not a certainty. When immense geo-
graphic regions share a common cul-
ture, believe their most fundamental
values are under attack and lose confi-
dence that the Democratic process will
protect their interests, unity is not al-
ways the result. Just ask the colonists
who sought to secure liberty in 1776.
Just ask the Confederates who sought
to secure slavery in the 1860s.
Over the past decade, I’ve heard com-
mitted partisans say out loud that they
would be “happy” to be rid of states like
California. I’ve heard (and read) men
fantasizing and theorizing about a sec-
ond Civil War. Right-wing insurrection-
ist groups have even formed for the
purpose of fomenting civil strife. Look at
the smoke drifting from U.S. cities from
coast to coast. Watch far-right and far-
left protesters square off in street battles.
There is a crackling tension in the air.
My proposition is siMple: In an at-
mosphere of increasing negative polar-
ization and geographic separation, we
can no longer take our nation for
granted. We must intentionally
care for the state of our union.
In “Federalist No. 10,” James
Madison wrestled with the chal-
lenge of “the violence of fac-
tion.” How does a nation deal
with competing factions? Not
through oppression and not
through uniformity but rather
through pluralism—by letting
many different political flowers
bloom. A broad diversity of in-
terests and groups helps prevent
any interest or group from at-
taining dangerous dominance.
In his words, “the increased
variety of parties comprised
within the Union, increase
this security.”
Why do we rightly worry that a con-
tested election would result in far more
tension and even violence than 2000’s
battle between George W. Bush and Al
Gore? In part because our competing
sides do not trust that if they lose they
will still be free and secure in the land
that they love. They fear domination.
They do not trust the possibility
of accommodation.
I’ve been writing and speaking about
national polarization and division since
before the Trump election. Two years
ago, I began writing a book describing
our challenge, outlining how we could
divide and how we can heal. The pre-
scription isn’t easy. We have to flip the
script on the pres ent political narrative.
We have to prioritize accommodation.
That means revitalizing the Bill of
Rights. America’s worst sins have al-
ways included denying fundamental
Far-right protesters clash with left-wing counter protesters
at the Justice Center in Portland, Ore., on Aug. 22
BROOKE HERBERT—THE OREGONIAN/AP
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