Barron’s - USA (2020-09-28)

M34 BARRON’S September 28, 2020

FEDERALRESERVEDATABANK

Prev. Year

MemberBank Latest Week Ago

ReserveChgs.(Mil.$) Week Change Change

OneweekendedSep23:

U.S.Gov'tsecurities:

Bought outright 6,438,478 + 58,075 +2,850,488

Federalagencysecur:

Bought outright 2,347 .... ....

Reservebankcredit:

Primary Credit 3,137 + 342 + 3,133

Secondary Credit .... .... ....

Seasonal Credit 35 + 4 -55

Float -204 +^45 -75

OtherF.R.Assets 34,465 + 1,456 + 11,038

TotalFedCredit# 7,032,062 + 40,629 +3,223,547

Goldstock 11,041 .... ....

SDRCertif.Accounts 5,200 .... ....

Treas.Curr.Outst. 50,397 + 14 + 409

Total 7,120,380 + 40,668 +3,225,019

Currencyincirc 2,028,408 -717 + 266,746

Treas.CashHldgs 47 -3 -123

Treas.FedDeposits 1,680,688 + 65,833 +1,366,499

ForeignFedDeposits 18,871 + 1,648 + 13,686

OtherFedDeposits 198,152 + 30,845 + 123,475

OtherFRliab/cap 49,413 -2,141 + 4,197

Totalfactors 4,289,881 + 95,581 +1,794,691

ReservesF.R.banks 2,830,499 -54,913 +1,430,328

FgnholdU.S.debt 3,424,105 + 17,397 -34,458

ReserveAggr(Mil.$sa) Latest Prev.Month% Year

MonthEnded August: Month Month Chg. Ago

TotalReserves: 2,799,700 2,718,500 2.99 1,586,800

Nonborrowed Res 2,716,600 2,625,600 3.47 1,586,700

Borrowed Reserves 83,126 92,943 -10.56 117

MonetaryBase 4,807,400 4,700,400 2.28 3,271,400

GOLD&SILVERPRICES

Year

Handy&Harman 9/25 9/18 Ago

Gold,troyounce 1859.70 1950.85 1489.90

Silver,troyounce 22.91 26.94 17.47

Baseforpricinggoldandsilvercontentsofshipmentsandfor

makingrefiningsettlement.

Price Premium Premium

Coins $ %

Krugerrand 1937.83 74.53 4.00

MapleLeaf 1956.47 93.17 5.00

MexicanPeso 2254.58 8.00 0.36

AustriaCrown 1829.41 3.00 0.16

AustriaPhil 1956.47 93.17 5.00

U.S.Eagles 1956.47 93.17 5.00

Premiumistheamountoverthevalueofthegoldcontentinthe

coin.SourceManfra,Tordella&Brookes,Inc.

Bullionspotgoldprice 1863.30

BARRON'SGOLDMININGINDEX

12-Month Year Week%

High Low 9/24 9/17 Ago Chg.

923.32391.56 Gold mining 821.61 923.32529.08 –11.02

INVESTORSENTIMENTREADINGS

High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the

Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low

ones, market bottoms.

Last 2Weeks 3Weeks

Week Ago Ago

ConsensusIndex

Consensus Bullish Sentiment 60% 61% 63%

Source:ConsensusInc.,P.O.Box520526,Independence,Mo.

Historicaldataavailableat(816)[email protected]

AAIIIndex

Bullish 24.9% 32.0% 23.7%

Bearish 46.0 40.4 48.5

Neutral 29.1 27.6 27.8

Source:AmericanAssociationofIndividualInvestors,

625N.MichiganAve.,Chicago,Ill.60611(312)280-0170.

MarketVane

Bullish Consensus 46% 49% 47%

Source:MarketVane,P.O.Box90490,

Pasadena,CA91109(626)395-7436.

TIMGroupMarketSentiment

Indicator 43.7% 51.1% 50.9%

Source:TIMGroup,3ColumbusCircle,Suite1592

NewYork,NY10019(844)[email protected]

WEEKLYBONDSTATISTICS

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

NewOfferings,(mil$)(v)

Corporate (z) 32,638 r33,719 23,222

Municipal (z) 11,189 r11,550 9,177

BestGradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10 high-grade

corporate bonds.)

1.62 1.54 2.75

Interm-GradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10

medium-grade corporate bonds.)

3.04 2.96 3.55

ConfidenceIndex(High-grade index divided by inter-

mediate-grade index; decline in latter vs. former generally

indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks.)

53.2 52.0 77.6

OtherConfidenceIndicators:

BloombergBarclaysUSLongTreasury*(This

index measures the performance of fixed-rate, nominal US

Treasuries with at least 10 years to maturity. Jan. 1, 1973=100.)

4912.58 4867.42 4172.38

BloombergBarclaysUSCredit(This index

includes all publicly issued, fixed-rate, non-convertible, invest-

ment-grade, dollar-denominated, SEC-registered corporate

debt. All issues have at least one year to maturity and outstand-

ing par value of at least $250 million. Jan. 1, 1973=0.) (v)

3298.27 3315.72 3052.31

RyanLabsTreasuryIndex(Index of total return from

active Treasury notes and bonds. Dec. 31, 1996=100.)

335.76 335.03 303.00

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

BondBuyer20BondIndex

2.21 2.22 2.66

BondBuyerMunicipalBondIndex

3.57 3.57 3.58

Stock/BondYieldGap-s(Difference between yield on

highest-grade corporate bonds and yield on stocks on the DJIA.)

+.53 +.57 –.46

YieldonDJEqualWeightUSCorpBondIdx:

Corp Bonds, (y) 2.17 2.09 2.94

v-WeekendedThursday.y-Yieldtomaturity,weekendedThursday.

z-Source:Refinitiv.*BarclaysT-BondIndexdiscontinuedbyfirm.

MONEYSUPPLY

MoneySupply(Bil.$) Latest Prev. Yr.AgoYOY%Chg

WeekendedSeptember14

M1(seas.adjusted) 5,574.1r5,402.63,875.7 43.82

M1(notadjusted) 5,309.7r5,294.63,745.9 41.75

M2(seas.adjusted) 18,700.6r18,576.715,021.4 24.49

M2(notadjusted) 18,664.9r18,577.515,050.7 24.01

MonthendedAugust

M1Mult.Replacement(St.LouisFed) 1.126 1.125 1.171 -3.84

MonthlyMoneySupply

MonthendedAugust

M1(seas.adjusted) r5,395.0r5,329.83,839.7 40.51

M2(seas.adjusted) 18,411.8r18,326.914,953.4 23.13

GOLD PERFORMANCE

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

60

75

O N D J F M A M J J AS

Barron's Gold Mining Index (821.61)

s

Handy & Harman Gold Price

s

Green & Gold: In its worst week in six

months, the price of gold spilled 4.7%, to

$1,860 an ounce. Blame the dollar.

ARMSINDEX

TheArmsindex,alsoknownastheshorttermtradingindex,isanumber

derivedbydividingonequotientintoanotherquotient.Thenumeratorin

the index is the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of

declining stocks. As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the

compositevolumeofadvancingstocksdividedbythecompositevolumeof

decliningstocks.

Daily 9/21 9/22 9/23 9/24 9/25

NYSE 1.25 1.22 .92 .71 1.54

NYSEAmerican .25 .58 1.30 .42 .63

Nasdaq .36 .61 .47 .62 .64

SouthAfrica (Rand) .0584 .0612 17.1311 16.3301

SouthKorea (Won) .0008515 .0008584 1174.45 1165.00

SriLanka (Rupee) .0054 .0054 185.3100 185.4800

Sweden (Krona) .1096 .1141 9.1264 8.7650

Switzerland (Franc) 1.0762 1.0970 .9292 .9116

Taiwan (Dollar) .03417 .03448 29.268 29.000

Thailand (Baht) .03162 .03216 31.630 31.090

Turkey (New Lira)-d .1305 .1323 7.6648 7.5605

Ukraine (Hryvnia) .0353 .0354 28.3500 28.2500

U.K. (Pound) 1.2746 1.2919 .7846 .7741

Uruguay (Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Financial .02355 .02357 42.455 42.435

Venezuela (Bolivar)

----

Euro 1.1632 1.1842 .8597 .8445

SpecialDrawingRights(SDR)arebasedonexchangeratesfortheU.S.,

British,andJapanesecurrencies.Source:InternationalMonetaryFund.

a-RussianCentralBankrate.b-governmentrate.d-rebasedasofJan.1,

2005.y-floatingrate.

Market Laboratory

MONEYRATES

Latest Prev. YrAgo

Week Week

DiscountRate(NY) 0.25 0.25 2.50

PrimeRate(base) 3.25 3.25 5.00

FedFundsRate

Avg effective offer 0.09 0.09 1.84

Avg weekly auction-c 0.09 0.09 2.12

T-BillsRate

13 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.101 0.112 1.946

13 weeks, Auction Rate 0.100 0.110 1.905

26 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.107 0.122 1.909

26 weeks, Auction Rate 0.105 0.120 1.860
Avg weekly auction-c 0.11 0.12 1.91

BrokerCallRate 2.00 2.00 3.75

BankersAcceptances

1 month 0.12 0.12 2.05

2 months 0.15 0.15 2.05

3 months 0.18 0.18 2.10

6 months 0.20 0.20 2.10

EuroLiborRate

1 month -0.567 -0.565 -0.508

3 months -0.513 -0.522 -0.437

6 months -0.502 -0.497 -0.416

12 months -0.436 -0.432 -0.357

LiborInterbankRate

1 month 0.15 0.16 2.03

3 months 0.22 0.23 2.10

6 months 0.27 0.28 2.06

12 months 0.37 0.37 2.04

ForeignPrimeRates

Canada 2.45 2.45 3.95

Germany 0.00 0.00 0.00

Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475

Switzerland 0.00 0.00 0.50

Britain 0.10 0.10 0.75

OtherMoneyRates

Fannie Mae Home Loan:

30-Year Fixed Conv 1.96 1.95 3.27

Bank money market-z 0.11 0.11 0.23

Interest Checking-z 0.05 0.05 0.08

6-Month Certif-z 0.19 0.20 0.58

12-Month Certif-z 0.28 0.28 0.83
30 Month Accounts-z 0.27 0.28 0.87

5-Year Certificates-z 0.44 0.45 1.17

U.S. Savings EE Bonds:

Long-Term (5yrs+) 0.10 0.10 0.10

c-Annualizedyields,adjustedforconstantmaturity,reportedby

theFederalReserveonaweeklyaveragebasis.
Sources:TullettPreboninformation,Ltd.
Factset.z-Bankrate.com.

1.15

1.00

0.85

0.70

0.55

0.40

4.90

4.00

3.10

2.20

1.30

0.40

S&P 100 CBOE

O N D J F M A M J J A S

CBOE PUT/CALL RATIO vs S&P 100

Source:CBOE

Readings in the CBOE equity put-call ratio of 60:100

and in the S&P 100 of 125:100 are considered bullish,

for instance. Bearish signals flash when the equity

put-call level reaches the vicinity of 30:100 and the

index ratio hits 75:100.

S&P 100 s

CBOE s

FOREIGNEXCHANGE

Friday,September25,2020

TheNewYorkforeignexchangemid-rangeratesarequotedat5

p.m. Eastern time by Tullet. Retail transactions provide fewer

units of foreign currency per dollar.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

Argentina (Peso)-y .0132 .0133 75.7878 75.3078

Australia (Dollar) .7028 .7291 1.4229 1.3716

Bahrain (Dinar) 2.6527 2.6520 .3770 .3771

Brazil (Real) .1798 .1855 5.5622 5.3911

Bulgaria (Lev) .5946 .6054 1.6819 1.6517

Canada (Dollar) .7470 .7573 1.3387 1.3206

Chile (Peso) .001269 .001310 788.10 763.30

China (Renminbi) .1465 .1477 6.8238 6.7690

Colombia (Peso) .0002573 .0002681 3887.00 3730.01

Croatia (Kuna) .1540595 .1569982 6.49 6.37

Czech.Rep. (Koruna) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Commercialrate .04290 .04427 23.312 22.590

Denmark (Krone) .1562 .1591 6.4005 6.2840

Ecuador (US Dollar) 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

Egypt (Pound)-y .0634 .0634 15.7740 15.7637

HongKong (Dollar) .1290 .1290 7.7503 7.7503

Hungary (Forint) .003199 .003286 312.55 304.31

Iceland (Krona) .007189 .007345 139.10 136.15

India (Rupee) .01357 .01360 73.690 73.540

Indonesia (Rupiah) .0000672 .0000679 14870 14735

Israel (Shekel) .2873 .2926 3.4809 3.4171

Japan (Yen) .009471 .009563 105.58 104.57

Kazakhstan (Tenge) .002339 .002370 427.59 421.86

Kuwait (Dinar) 3.2636 3.2738 .3064 .3055

Macau (Pataca) .1253 .1252 7.9780 7.9870

Malaysia (Ringgit)-b .2397 .2430 4.1715 4.1145

Mexico (Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Floating rate .0448 .0473 22.3432 21.1369

NewZealand (Dollar) .6547 .6760 1.5274 1.4793

Norway (Krone) .1044 .1100 9.5745 9.0948

Oman (Rial) 2.5974 2.5974 .3850 .3850

Pakistan (Rupee) .00604 .00602 165.530 166.145

Peru (new Sol)

Philippines (Peso) .02063 .02063 48.474 48.480

Poland (Zloty) .2555 .2654 3.9134 3.7676

Qatar (Rial) .2746 .2719 3.6418 3.6780

Russia (Ruble)-a .01280 .01320 78.147 75.736

SaudiArabia (Riyal) .2666 .2666 3.7508 3.7510

Singapore (Dollar) .7260 .7354 1.3774 1.3598

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

As of 9/24, The Federal Reserve will only

be reporting monthly Reserve Aggregate

figures. Also, Required Reserves have been

eliminated by the Fed.

As of 9/24, the M1 Mult. Replacement is

only being calculated monthly by source.