Bloomberg Businessweek - USA (2020-10-12)

64

ILLUSTRATION

BY

GEORGE

WYLESOL.

*AGE

16 AND

OLDER.

DATA:

FEDERAL

HIGHWAY

ADMINISTRATION,

BUREAU

OF

LABOR

STATISTICS

Theearly daysof the Covid pandemicbrought an

unprecedenteddeclinein drivingin theU.S.,with

vehiclemilestraveleddown41%fromFebruarytoApril

ona seasonallyadjustedbasis.ByJuly,themostrecent

monthforwhichtheFederalHighwayAdministration

hasreleaseddata,vehiclemileswerestilldown13%

(seasonallyadjusted)fromFebruary.

Drivingwillsurelycreepclosertoitspre-pandemic

levelasAmericansreturntotheirofficesthisyearand

next.Butit mayneverquitegetthere.A studythissum-

merbyaccountingandconsultingfirmKPMGforecast

thatvehiclemilestraveledwillsettleatabout90%ofpre-

2020 levels in coming years.Ona percapitabasis,they

were down 5% from theirall-timehighinthemid-2000s

even before the pandemic.DrivingintheU.S.wouldseem

to have peaked.

The reasons for this declinearestraightforward.More

and more people have beendoingtheirjobsfromhome—

and getting their entertainmentandbuyingthingsthereas

well. (Yes, the goods peoplebuyonlinearedeliveredinvehi-

cles, but on balance this stillresultsinfewermilestraveled

than if everybody shoppedinperson.)Thesetrends,which

began with the arrival ofwidespreadbroadbandinternet

access in the early 2000s,hadbeengainingstrengthin

recent years. The pandemichasacceleratedthem.

This doesn’t mean theendofcars;thevastmajorityof

American adults will stillneedthem.Car-dependentsub-

urbs have been growingfasterthancitiessince2016,and

the pandemic certainly hasn’tslowedthattrend.Butthey

won’t need as many, andtheywon’tneedtoreplacethem

as often. <BW> �Fox is a columnistforBloombergOpinion

◼ LAST THING

●REMOTE

ACCESS

InSeptember,

22.7%ofemployed

Americansreported

workingfromhome

becauseofthe

pandemic,according

totheBureauof

LaborStatistics.

Amongthose

in management

andprofessional

occupations,the

figurewas40.5%.

With Bloomberg Opinion

● DRIVETIME

Americansworking

athomethis

summerweresaving

60m

commuterhours

a day,according

toa Universityof

Chicagostudy.

● PARTY LINES

Vehicle miles traveled in July were down 14.1%

from a year earlier in heavily Democratic states,

and 7.6% in heavily Republican ones, according

to transportation researcher Michael Sivak.

● FEWER TRIPS

TO THE MALL

Electronic

commerce and mail

orders accounted

for 14.2% of U.S.

retail sales in July,

according to the

Census Bureau,

up from 11.7% in

February and 3.3%

in early 2000.

By Justin Fox

Miles Away From

Peak Driving

Bloomberg

Businessweek

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900)

October

12,

2020

(ISSN

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● Vehicle miles traveled per capita* in the U.S. in

the trailing 12 months

June 2005

12/1970 7/2020

14k

11

8