The Times - UK (2020-10-14)

(Antfer) #1

Wednesday October 14 2020 | | No 73290

A half-term “circuit breaker” lockdown

would save thousands of lives by the

end of the year, government scientific

advisers have calculated as pressure

grows for a two-week shutdown.

Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader,

called on Boris Johnson last night to

implement such a “reset”, warning that

without it Britain would “sleepwalk

into a long and bleak winter”.

Mr Johnson hardened his stance

against it during a call with Tory MPs

organised by the 1922 Committee of

backbenchers, saying that it would not

be right to impose the restrictions on

areas where cases were still low.

However, a paper by members of the

Scientific Advisory Group for Emer-

gencies (Sage), obtained by The Times

and due to be published today, challen-

ges his position. It shows that a two-

week full lockdown, with stay-at-home

orders and school closures, from Octo-

ber 24 could reduce deaths for the rest

of the year from about 19,900 to 12,100.

Hospital admissions could be reduced

from 132,400 to 66,500.

A limited lockdown, with schools and

shops open but hospitality venues

closed, could cut deaths to 15,600.

It came as:

6 Some 143 more Covid-19 deaths were

reported, the highest daily figure since

early June, alongside 17,234 new cases.

Hospital admissions rose by 22 per cent

in England to 628 and intensive care

units in Liverpool were near capacity.

6 Matt Hancock, the health secretary,

took on Tory lockdown sceptics, saying

that thousands more would die without

tough restrictions.

6 Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London,

said that the capital would be placed in

tier two with a ban on households mix-

ing, as leaders in Greater Manchester

dug in against being placed in tier three.

6 Mr Hancock will discuss putting

parts of Greater Manchester and Lan-

cashire into tier three with the chief

medical officer and councillors today.

6 The World Health Organisation’s

coronavirus envoy said that lockdowns

should be used only as a last resort

because of the impact on economic and
social life.
The paper by Graham Medley, chair-
man of Sage’s SPI-M modelling group,
and the SPI-M members Matt Keeling,
Louise Dyson, Michael Tildesley and
Edward Hill, models the effect of differ-
ent restrictions at different times.
They say that “the optimal time for a
break is always now; there are no good
epidemiological reasons to delay the

break”, although they add that it could
also be applied during the Christmas
holidays or spring half-term.
If daily deaths reach more than 200,
a circuit breaker could reduce the toll
for the rest of the year from 80,000 to
less than 40,000.
“Such breaks are not in themselves
long-term solutions, but may allow
other methods that work best with low
numbers of cases (such as test-trace-

Chris Smyth Whitehall Editor

Francis Elliott Political Editor


‘White privilege’ fear

White working-class children
could fall even further behind
if forced to apologise for
“white privilege”, Matthew
Goodwin, a professor of
politics, has told MPs. Pagei

Family crash horror

A mother and three of her
children died when their car
collided with a lorry near
Oxford. Her husband and
baby were in a critical but
stable condition. Pagei

Be realistic, EU told

Angela Merkel, the German
chancellor, has warned the
European Union that it must
be more realistic in accepting
Britain’s position during fishing
and trade talks. Pagei

Trump goes on tour

President Trump is
scrambling to defend states he
won comfortably in 2016. He
will visit Iowa, which he took
by more than nine points,
followed by Georgia.iPagei

IMF alert on debt

Britain will still be borrowing
nearly £100 billion a year and
debt will be rising perilously
at the end of this parliament,
the International Monetary
Fund has said. Pagei

FA warning to clubs

Greg Clarke, the FA chairman,
has warned Liverpool and
Manchester United that the
governing body would use its
special powers to prevent a
breakaway league. Pagei

£2 £1.10 to subscribers

Death of

the dress

Free delivery

for 6 weeks

Super furry coat season
Why you should hug a teddy to get through the winter

From left: £179,; Lara-Isabelle Rentinck in Hamburg;
Helena Bordon at Paris Fashion Week

Tuesday October 13 2020 | | No 73289

Boris Johnson urged council leadersacross theand agr (^) ee draconian lockdown north last night to step up
measuresmayor accepted tough restrictions. after Liverpool’s regional
area, will be on the highest coronavirusalert from The city, and some of the surroundingtomorrow after the launch of
a the fight to contain the virus inEngland. three-tier system intended to reboot
was intended to be a simplified policywas overshadowHowever, the announcement of whated by rows over how
and where it will operate.officer for England, also warned thatChris Whitty, the chief medical
the which shut pubs and limit household“very high” level of restrictions,
contact, would not be sufficient with-out even tougher local action. He saidthat “rates will continue inexorably to
rise” if more were not doneProfessor Whitty has privately told.
ministers to bring the pandemic under controlunless more areas are placed into that the reboot is not enough
top tier. He said that he was particularlyconcerned by the rise in hospitaladmissions among over-sixties, which,the
he suggested, was evidence that the
virus was now spreading across all agroups in the
national action to cdid not want to impose a completeMr Johnson hinted at tougherome, saying that he
lockdown “right now” but the figureson infections and were “flashing at us like dashboardhospital admissions
warnings in a passenger jet”. 6 The developments came as: Britain recorded 13,972 new Covid-
cases, up 11 per cent on week, and 50 deaths. Hospitaladmissions reached Monday last
6 before the national lockdown in March.It emerged that the Scienta level higher thanific
Advisory Group for Emergencieswarned three weeks agomeasures, such as pub closures and a that long-term
ban on household mixing, were neededon top of a national two-week “circuit-breaker”.
(^6) cated that almost half of voters thinkthat national meYouGov polling for asures are not toughThe Times indi-
enough. (^6) showed that about three million peopleAnalysis by Cancer Research UK
had since the end of March. 6 Three Nightingale hospitals weremissed out on cancer screening
that they would get routine testing.put on standby and NHS staff were toldAt a press conference with Professor
Continued on page 2, col 3
Francis Elliott Chris Smyth Oliver Wright Political EditorWhitehaPolicy Editorll Editor
warmth, said “we are all potential Ahmad Khan (C, Wasimilar point, the PM, without kefield) made a
vectors”. Individuals were not alone in the equation. Mr Ahmad Khan
cast an unimpressed eyebrow down at hialready rebellious. Are lockdowners s pinstripe waistcoat, a new MP
themselves not all vectors — of economic collapse?
even tighter lockdown. He deplored Tory backbenchers who fought for Sir Keir Starmer, QC, wanted an
freedoms. “The worst thing would be not acting decisively enquacked Sir Keir. And yet Mike ough,”
Amesbury (Lab, Weaver Vale) told Mr Johnson to “think again, think
10pm curfew” on pubs. William Wragg (C, Hazel Gagain” about “the nonsense of the rove) noted that
hardly anyone actually caught it in a pub. Some misery from Merseyside spoke of Liverpool being “un
boot of Tory austerity”. Mr Johnson batted that away by praising the der the
co-operation he had received from the Steve Rotheram.region’s Labour metro mayor,
Continued on page 2, col 5Jim Shannon (DUP, Strangford)
Lean, mean Johnson leaves us in tiers
talking of death numbers. Also making a return: oh gawd, ITV’s “Alas” was back, used when
Prof Peston (a mere 45 seconds — positively blurted out his question)
and Sky News’s Beth Rigby, sporting a bob-cut that allows her to chew her hair while working. In-
flight nourishment. With recent Covid controls proving ineffective, Beth
locks out of her “Are people not followin’ the rules?” narrowed her eyes, flicked hechops and asked: r
Of course they aren’t. I walked through Leeds the other night. The pub queues were heaving. Dr Whitty
did notpublic. Well, not too much. “What want to demoralise the
people are doing is significantly reducing infection rates,” he said. Translation: you will continue to
obey me.stint in the Commons. Philip Davies The PM earlier did a two-hour
(C, Shipley) toat big-statism. Instead of a “blizzard of arbitrary ruleok his traditional jab s” the governmen
should let us make up our own minds: that was “what it means to bea Conservative”. Mr Johnson opted t
not to pick a fight. But when Imran
Quentin LettsPolitical Sketch
ow would you like yourrump cooked, madam?
Medium, high or veryhigh? Boris Johnson,leaner by the day,
returned to the evening press-conference treadmill wiset of Covid gradationth another
responalert le“Low” was not stages and colour-coded vels he now had uss. After in tiers.
Nottingham and Manchester were in trouble unless they sLiverpool was very high.
behave. place coloured pale blue on one of Dr Whitty’s maps. Lock-’em-down Cornwall was about the only tarted to
Whitty seemed jumpier than usual. Kept stressing that he knew the economy mattered. His partne
pessimism, Vallance, had been dropped from the line-up. Rishi Sunak, chancellor of what is left of r in
the exchequer, was selected instead.
Free delivery
for 6 weeks
Have you had a
meltdown pandemic
October 12 | 202
Jeremy Strong on why Succession is th Kendall Roy and me Money, power, e show for our times s rules todLivei undeBor yaJohnrpool as her son istough coron expectednouncanulriavacesto p es a
newLucyred^ local loc^ FisheCharlotte Wace ing relations NorThe prime mithern Corll then mwi He ing of the Cobra .tnigheibrto finalise ti res aftruvientns o cevrent i committycfing cabinet ministers lnrgeiochair a meet- ster willake a statdeonspreniith leaders in thewsystem ar kdownntemetfrMement inthe Co north.-urb asttheeepress conferencnewopen, ile hwlosingcMinistcasin otSevlhetid ty,mayt the ef medicncelPs will be asked^ the cha,^ mmonsuresThe strictest of tenakuels, labelled “ve aenchiail the closos and gyms.ers have de “drinking-led” eallowing restaurans befaccording to orynew mea high”, is expecteea tg th vote onal officer for^ E this wure of pubs, b hostinewieek.ngrs Whito^ he threecided to focus rom6p new stablishmentst uoalllevise and ts to remaCbhrito debate andne cabinet source.^ ,o e^ Tinnos,arRishidrtdthough, aeland.rants mmeals^ allThe scted toepexerimplemented fsalbefore beinleaders will be offered the tripsl to go further witiatsseneThe TimeCurbs o-strong guidance h s ome cwar four weay^ loc be^ closedg reviewed, eht with oincluded onfufo tou gs^ owhstheir own med. repinst morts ctrongess understands.t measurebe n households alaaimeoea,gdinxim,aking non-esrasueytniutrppooocallhile wimetal aran areks at a eel bliw sly takeawayn in thesion^ last nigh that restau-t,dwide, uen theigh” alervLiveery pool is reghand les, whileur school^ l, wilelert levcoronavirus ho am”will st tiestwelo eThrate of Covid-rel.wnor footsions, and it is ex tedare expecGreater Manchmeasur the highest category“hwr It is ut level. Travel fay.tod ill be permittes would take eardeo be placester and Lancdert levl tectedp” ah avoid thn designighospitalhted athe “ as tuse of itat becr, labelled the “hnation-opost edbasl be eect.odi-we ems high (^) ationadmis-ireshel isexpclearor work inedIn oed. 6 12,872 more posifftacasesnued onitoll rin 6 Peter tnoernmCwarnerss woeascdown 6 Jonathan Van-increa namedicl offlopmen 65 to 42,825.ctHorby, chaired to limit hent advisory l NHS e to thdld leauocbd teat a second natit were anrate o ehnounced, 2 was a possibilityt geTam, insepa her dever for Englandicyaesing (^) htsy, said thattudep eh t.oukclof coronavirus lnaoag,tp Nervuore chirugglinggv-oman of the gseheae dh tith, woldrronavi 3 oive cts:ts mixing.usth-f
Posie steptivrngam Ro Bmiihetyals iall B 100 aramogn,3orts nisations gatt the goveharnment says will benefit from a £2 57 ion bailoutmilltM of. he succeostssful applicantill be annos wunced today. Page 2
ite regimes as they attemeifordministrationaose tnorteProfessorsrespup a s drawnmicsdeaAcgny bosses es.spumacnthreae lcktarepressiv iacross the rs. Schov omhets tt academic tluscon ngid ecountrndemare eries of de aference concerns that ufos have been r yeaor hves with universmands infreedom on-larspt toniversitythatadeignoringaly (^) IMETPHRIAOGROTPHERMMSCHARDMPOHLE
AcaChrlie ParkeraemdicSdounivGroup ntaff resency alas want sads College Lo, pOxford and the Schad thstudy have formed teortn m aod Internatito addressIt will present a pcuay “designed to King’at Edinburgh, (^) cend accounterseersities after nem the iue.e Accode of conducademic Fool of Adv ty ondon, Lincoln, Lbed more transpssionalisation Workingvability” in all Bristhreats of surveilohe coerciExeter, Golds tdanhcores of studenttvertishr-at to-ee-rdencaE,-Siths,me is frustrheniuer n offamilyTon reseunida lecouldshould be scrutinised “adennficoacademde anoften frtud snasions”. It ersity deals wsities and foreigra membersteint wasuce abo hn among acadesorship. llowedenc-fics who, the groupae ts bnleotiarch. ozen out of paCollabo sdemanrat so td alsovddelp ithat professorshnerstro “te ar says,y” bto raise fears ins stageci- altntsmeernrference thatvgon neons betweitacp imnaving aoith hostile regimes
ics tat hcomla about inpintsferernce-tmehostile states inclubeiRussia and^ ignored. Senior pdiplomats han ubai ife financial dependeno Dties on resea tiptrcoming from auThe code oMatthew Hedges, a Brom a Britiswho was arrestedngthh a resoliticians and formethoritarian regimesring2018. Mrdgeecy f conduct is bacuy dpo drawn attention of (^) HSaudi Arabia have been dritish acadeinverch grants and (^) and falsely acals sgedicmy bedk. searchudenttsuniversi-otra,n Chicus, whowaformehaves ofevenhas tried avoiThirepresents vicsecurity guideliconcerns ovUnivets detained before he was in sol fouiesd that at^ ,sedusit that has occurredccax montnto keep thei hd bad press.” ss week Univer (^) e-chancelloanes designer university pdprsitn^ ersiid: “W life impr head down anrisoagconfinemente 4itary every igsities UK, whichnific fars, will releaseced relned to addresseaseartnerships.d, sa, the univsdyttnae-n
Covid tiers split nation in three 6 erLivacpoolf es ughestoturbs under c Johnson’s new sym 6 Bsteacklash from northern leaders against hospitality closures
Fr6 wMonday Oceksee eobdeliver 12 t (^2) The Times onoorstepd020 | thetimesGetage erySepe | No 732.T& C s fo r (^88 24) pyour ap lyPosSuccand meJeremy Sthe hit wer, £. (^210) to subscreessiotrong £1owhonTim n bersis 2
See paT&Cs applyge 44
£2 £1.10 to subscribers
The Times Get
on your doorstep
Bolast night’s news conference on ris Johnson at
the revamped system to halt
rising infections
6 PM pushes for highest risk level across north
more face
Covid curbs
6 Even stricter lockdowns necessary, says Whitty
The Times
on your doorstep
How Covid
See page 22
T&Cs apply Times
Workers from the events industry protested in Bristol about the effect of coronavirus restrictions on their livelihoods

Pressure grows on PM

for half-term lockdown

and-isolate) to reassert control,”
Professors Medley and Keeling write.
“Planned precautionary breaks could
be highly effective short-term control
measures [leading to] a reduction in
infection, hospitalisations and deaths.”
Sage published minutes on Monday
showing that it had called three weeks
ago for a circuit breaker alongside a
series of other restrictions. That came


will escape


digital tax

Oliver Wright Policy Editor

Amazon will not be affected by the new
digital services tax but small traders
who use its online marketplace will be
penalised, HMRC has admitted.
Ministers had claimed that the tax,
announced in April, would make
“global giants with profitable business-
es in the UK pay their fair share towards
supporting our public services”.
In June Rishi Sunak, the chancellor,
said that the coronavirus crisis had
made tech giants even “more powerful
and more profitable” and that they
needed “to pay their fair share of tax”.
However, The Times has learnt that
Amazon, whose total British tax bill last
year was £293 million on sales of
£13.73 billion, will not have to pay the
levy on goods it sells itself. Instead it
will have to pay the 2 per cent charge
only on revenues it receives from third-
party sellers that pay to use its market-
place platform.
Amazon has announced that it will
pass on this cost in higher fees, in effect
meaning that it will not be liable for the
charge and so gaining a competitive
advantage over smaller retailers that
use its platform.
Last night business groups accused
HMRC of designing a tax that cement-
ed Amazon’s market dominance while
failing to ensure that it paid its fair
share. A senior tax lawyer described the
digital services tax as a “political failure
and economic failure”.
Lord Leigh of Hurley, the Conserva-
tive peer and former party treasurer,
called for a rethink. “This seems to me
to be absolutely outrageous,” he told
the Lords. “It is clear that the UK gov-
ernment is not taxing Amazon properly
and is allowing it to avoid tax on its own
sales through the marketplace.
“This puts regular retailers at a signif-
icant disadvantage. The digital sales tax
does not achieve its objective of yield-
ing more revenue from the likes of
Amazon, as it is simply passed on to its
suppliers in the marketplace, which
have to absorb this tax in their margin.”
The digital services tax was intro-
duced after the failure to reach an inter-
national agreement on taxing techno-
logy companies that operate in many
jurisdictions. It stipulates that digital


6 Thousands of lives would be saved, say scientists 6 Johnson holds firm despite 17,000 new cases

Free download pdf