TheEconomistOctober 17th 2020 471A
lthough britain’s covid-19 death
numbers are nowhere near their spring
peak, they are climbing dangerously. Daily
tolls are similar to mid-March. Things are
particularly bad in the north. Field hospi-
tals in Harrogate, Manchester and Sunder-
land are on standby. Under a new regime of
regional lockdowns which went into effect
on October 14th (see map on next page),
gyms, bars and casinos in Liverpool will be
closed, and non-essential travel in and out
of the area discouraged. In much of north-
ern England and part of the Midlands,
members of different families will not be
able to meet indoors, and the use of public
transport will be discouraged; London is
expected to be put under the same restric-
tions shortly.
Britain can probably withstand a sec-
ond wave better than the first. It has the ca-
pacity to perform 13 times as many tests
each day as in mid-April. Deaths and hospi-
talisations are rising more slowly than they
were in the spring. Doctors now know to
place patients on their stomachs, to delay
ventilator use and what drugs to use. There
is plenty of protective kit for health-care
workers, and the nation has got used to
wearing masks and working from home.
Yet resilience, the buzzword for govern-
ments in the face of the pandemic, covers
not only supply chains but also the ability
to forge a political consensus around a
strategy. On this measure, Mr Johnson en-
ters the crisis much weaker than in March,
when ministers, scientists, the opposition
parties and public opinion were in close
agreement. Even the Conservative Party’s
libertarian wing accepted the lockdown as
a necessary evil. Mr Johnson’s approval rat-
ings surged.
That consensus has now crumbled. The
government’s policy of local lockdowns is
being assailed from all sides.
In favour of greater caution are the gov-
ernment’s own scientists, the Labour Partyand the public. At a meeting on September
21st the Scientific Advisory Group for Emer-
gencies (sage) recommended that the gov-
ernment implement a package of measures
to bring the rnumber below one, including
a “circuit breaker” short-term lockdown,
closing bars, restaurants and cafes, halting
face-to-face university teaching and advis-
ing all those who could do so to work from
home. Mr Johnson plumped only for the
last of those. On October 12th Chris Whitty,
the government’s chief medical officer,
said that in his “professional view” the new
tiered restrictions would be insufficient to
contain the spread of the virus in the worst-
affected areas.
Throughout the crisis, Sir Keir Starmer,
Labour’s leader, has backed the govern-
ment’s strategy and attacked its delivery.
On October 13th he changed tack, calling for
a “circuit breaker”. Mr Johnson accuses Sir
Keir of opportunism, but the prime minis-
ter is vulnerable: if Conservative opposi-
tion to lockdown legislation strengthens,
he will need Sir Keir’s support to pass any
new measures.
The public is with Sir Keir: 42% think
the current regime too lax, 34% think it is
about right and 14% think it too strict. More
than two-thirds of voters support the idea
of a “circuit-breaker” over half-term, ac-
cording to YouGov, a pollster.
On the other side, growing numbers ofThe second wave
Back into the storm
The virus is surging again; the prime minister is struggling
Britain
48 Thebusinessofbiography
49 Bagehot: Divided BritainAlso in this section