Sources:Ergast.com;F1-Facts.com;“Formulaforsuccess:multilevelmodellingofFormula1 driverandconstructorperformance,1950-2014”,by
AndrewBelletal.,JournalofQuantitativeAnalysisinSports, 2016;TheEconomist*Tenpointsforfirstplace,sixforsecond,fourforthirdetc.Formula1’sbestdrivers
Rankedbystandardisedpoints*perraceaddedaboveanaveragedriver→Cutting-edgecarmakinghasreplaceddaredevildrivingasthemainsourceofsuccessinFormula 1Relativeimportanceofcarqualitytodriverskillforchampiondriver
StandardisedFormula1 points*,expressedas%ofmaximumpossible1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8AlainProst
French,1980-93JimClark
British,1960-68JuanManuelFangio
Argentine,1950-58JackieStewart
British,1965-73MichaelSchumacher
German,1991-2012LewisHamilton
British,2007-presentAlbertoAscari
Italian,1950-55AyrtonSenna
Brazilian,1984-9495%confidence0 20 40 60 80 100
1950196019701980199020002010Carmaker/Team Driver AllotherfactorsMercedesRedBullMcLarenHamiltonHamiltonSchumacherSchumacherSennaProstFangioFangioClark
ClarkAscariStewart
StewartStewartSenna
Prost
ProstHamiltonFerrariJuanManuelFangiowon 49 ofa
possible 80 standardisedpointsin
1956 (61%).Themodelassigns 36 %
pointstohim,and 26 tohisFerrari.TheEconomistOctober 17th 2020 77“I
always thoughtrecords were there
to be broken,” Michael Schumacher, a
star Formula 1 (f1) driver, said in 2013. At the
time, his record of 91 career f1 victories
looked safe: the closest active racer had just- Yet on October 11th Lewis Hamilton of
Britain equalled the mark. Mr Hamilton is
also on pace to tie Mr Schumacher’s record
of seven f1 championships later this year.
Mr Hamilton’s ascent has ignited de-
bate over whether he is f1’s best driver ever.
Comparing athletes across eras is always
hard—especially in motor sports, where a
racer depends on his car. Moreover, f1 has
regularly changed its scoring system and
its number of races, drivers and teams.
However, statistical analysis can ad-
dress many of these nuances. We have built
a mathematical model, based on a study by
Andrew Bell of the University of Sheffield,
to measure the impact of all 745 drivers in
f1 history. It finds that Mr Hamilton’s best
years fall just short of those of the all-time
greats—but so do Mr Schumacher’s.
The model first converts orders of finish
into points, using the 1991-2002 system of
ten points for a win and six for second
place. It adjusts these scores for structural
effects, such as the number and past per-
formances of other drivers in the race.
Then, it splits credit between drivers and
their vehicles. (Today, f1 has ten teams,
each using two drivers and one type of car.)
Disentangling these factors is tricky. Mr
Schumacher spent most of his peak at Fer-
rari, as Mr Hamilton has at Mercedes, leav-
ing scant data on their work in other cars.
However, their teammates varied. And
drivers who raced alongside Mr Hamilton
or Mr Schumacher tended to fare far better
in those stints than they did elsewhere. If
Ferrari’s and Mercedes’ engineers boosted
lesser racers this much, they probably aid-
ed their stars to a similar degree. Because
most drivers switch teams a few times, this
method can be applied throughout history.
Between the two racers with 91 wins, the
model prefers Mr Schumacher. He won 1.9
more points per race than an average driver
would have done in the same events and
cars, edging out Mr Hamilton’s mark of 1.8.Limited to their five best consecutive years,
the gap widens, to 2.7 points per race for Mr
Schumacher and 2.0 for Mr Hamilton.
This difference stems mostly from the
impact of their cars. Both stars raced in the
finest vehicles of their day. But 20 years
ago, cars from Williams and McLaren were
nearly as strong as Ferrari’s. In contrast,
Mercedes now towers over its rivals, en-
abling Mr Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas, his
teammate, to coast past lesser cars. Before
joining Mercedes, Mr Bottas had never won
a f1 race. He now has nine victories.
Yet on a per-race basis, the greats of yes-
teryear beat both modern stars. Three of
the model’s top four drivers stopped racing
by 1973; the leader, the Argentine Juan Ma-
nuel Fangio, won five titles in the 1950s.
These pioneers had short careers. Fan-
gio started just 51 races, to Mr Schumacher’s- However, the model is impressed by
them, because the impact of cars relative to
drivers has grown over time. On average, it
assigns drivers in the 1950s 58% of their
teams’ points; today, that share is 19%. Fan-
gio, who was a mechanic by training and
won titles using cars from four different
firms, was known as “the master”. The mas-
ters of modern f1 are engineers who sit be-
hind laptops, not steering wheels. 7
Engineers, not racers, are now the true
drivers of success in motor sportsMan v machine
Graphic detailFormula 1