8 1GM Saturday October 17 2020 | the times
News
Coronavirus cases in the UK increased
by 50 per cent in a week, the Office for
National Statistics has said, to reach the
highest level recorded by its survey.
A separate group tracking the UK
outbreak said deaths could be as high as
690 per day within a fortnight.
In the week ending October 8, an
estimated 336,500 people in the
community in England had the virus,
the ONS said, equating to about one in
The week before it calculated
224,400 people had the virus, equating
to about one in 240.
Yesterday 15,650 new covid infec-
tions were recorded, and 136 deaths.
The ONS Covid-19 infection survey
has repeatedly sampled households in
England since May to get an idea of
how prevalent the virus is in the
community.
The survey calculated there were
about 27,900 new cases per day in the
week to October 8, up from 17,200 the
week before. Ruth Studley, head of ana-
lysis for the survey, said: “Our latest da-
ta shows infections continue to rise,
with more than a third of a million
people estimated to be infected — the
highest levels we have seen since the
survey began in May.
“Like previous weeks, infections
continue to be highest in the north of
England and among older teenagers
and young adults.”
Public Health England also reported
regional variation in its weekly surveil-
lance report. That showed that 41 local
authorities had seen a drop in Covid-
infection rates in the week ending
October 11.
Manchester saw the largest drop, of
22 per cent, although case numbers re-
mained very high. There were 433.
cases per 100,000 people, down from
557.83 the week before. The ONS sur-
vey is used by government scientists
tracking the pandemic. Because it re-
peats samples from the same house-
holds whether they have symptoms or
not, it is considered more reliable than
relying on case numbers from the
national track and trace system.
A separate model from the Medical
Research Council (MRC) biostatics
unit at Cambridge University, which
also feeds into the government’s Scien-
tific Advisory Group on Emergencies
(Sage), this week calculated about
46,000 coronavirus infections were
occurring daily across England.
That model said deaths could be
expected to hit between 240 and 690
per day by October 26.
Cases are doubling in under seven
days, they said, with a “substantial pro-
portion” of cases being asymptomatic.
The figures are fed to the Scientific
Pandemic Influenza Group on Model-They’re filming the new Batman in
Liverpool at the moment. On Thursday
night, twin helicopters hovered over
the city, nosepod cameras zooming
down on St George’s Hall, transformed
into Gotham City for the shoot. Down
at Pier Head, a more or less socially
distanced crowd gathered, faces craned
skyward for a glimpse of the man
himself, rumoured to be appearing
soon at the top of the Liver building,
Tier 3 restrictions permitting.
“When’s he turning up?” a passing
man asks me, with that easy familiarity
you find in this most convivial of cities.
(The last time I was here, a complete
stranger approached me outside a bar
and asked: “Arr-ay, mate, is our
Anthony in there?” It’s as neighbourly
and socially connected as any village is
Liverpool, hence one possible explana-
tion for its high infection rate). I said I
wasn’t privy to the caped crusader’sNobody expects
There is disillusionment
and grim humour in
the first city put under
Tier 3 lockdown, writes
Robert Crampton
busy schedule. “F*** it,” the man said,
“it won’t be the real one anyway, it’ll be
his stunt double.” So it proved, not least
because Robert Pattinson tested posi-
tive a month ago and presumably isn’t
up to clambering up high buildings.
Such worldly cynicism also forms a
big part of the Scouse DNA. They may
need a superhero to get them out of
their predicament — more than 3,
cases and 33 Covid deaths in the week
to Wednesday and intensive care units
90 per cent full — but they aren’t
expecting one any time soon.
Certainly, nobody I met is relying on
the prime minister to lead the city out of
the crisis. “Buffoon”, “tit” and (with
commendable gender egalitarianism)
“prick” were three of the printable
descriptions of Boris Johnson.
A pub, the James Atherton across the
Mersey in New Brighton, has renamed
itself The Three Bellends, its remod-
elled sign depicting Mr Johnson, Matt
Hancock and Dominic Cummings.
Suffice to say Conservative politicians
are not popular in a city which at the
last election held up the western pillar
of the red wall as other sections crum-
bled. The sense is more of confusion
and depression than grievance, but in-
sofar as conspiracy theories abound,
people think Liverpool (as opposed toNews Coronavirus
Surge could push
daily death toll to
690 in two weeks
Kat Lay Health Correspondent ling, which provides real-time informa-
tion to the government through Sage,
and to regional Public Health England
(PHE) teams.
On October 12, the MRC unit
published a report saying: “Our current
estimate of the number of infections
occurring each day across England is
47,000.
“We predict that the number of
deaths each day is likely to be between
240 and 690 on October 26.”
They said the daily number of infec-
tions was within the range of 28,900 to
74,900 per day, with the best estimate
being 47,000, and estimated that the
number of infections was growing by
9 per cent a day. “It translates into a
doubling in number in under one
week,” they said.
“The central estimates for the num-
ber of new infections is particularly
high in the northwest and the northeast
and Yorkshire (17,600 and 10,700 infec-
tions per day, respectively), followed by
London and the Midlands (5,450 and
5,720, respectively).”
Both models are used, alongside
others, when Sage calculates the R rate,
a measure of how many people each
infected individual will go on to infect.
Yesterday it said the R rate was
between 1.3 and 1.5, meaning every ten
infected people would infect between
13 and 15 more. Last week it put the
figure at between 1.2 and 1.5.
It said the outbreak in the UK was
growing by between 4 per cent and 7 per
cent each day, overlapping with last
week’s estimate of between 4 per cent
and 9 per cent.
Sage said it was “almost certain that
the epidemic continues to grow expo-
nentially across the country” and that it
was “confident that the transmission is
not slowing. There is no clear evidence
that the epidemic’s trajectory has
changed in the past month.”
The national picture
Daily new lab-confirmed UK cases
Cases Deaths
Total UK* 689,257 43,
584,
45,
34,
25,38,
2,
1,
608England
Scotland
Wales
N Ireland*Counting of cases has changed to remove duplication. Numbers
now include those tested in all settings. 14-day change trends
use 7-day averages. Source: Gov.UK15 .1k
81
Oct 10
Oct 10
- 9 k
65
11
11
14k
50
12
12
17 .2k
143
13
13
19.7k
137
1 33%
62 %
14
14
19 k
138
15
15
15 .7k
136
16
16
Daily new UK deaths
14-day
change14-day
changeHigher death rates among Britons from
black, Asian and minority ethnic
backgrounds during the coronavirus
pandemic “cannot be explained by
pre-existing health conditions”, the
Office for National Statistics said
yesterday.
Factors such as where people from
ethnic minorities live and the types of
job they do are far more likely to
account for the difference, they con-
cluded.
The statistics authority released a
fresh analysis of Covid-19 deaths up to
July 28 in various ethnic groups, cross-
referenced with data on hospital visits
for other health conditions.
Ben Humberstone, deputy director
of health analysis and life events at
the ONS, said: “Using more detailed
ethnic group categories and adding
measures of pre-existing health condi-
tions from hospital data we have been
able to build on previous analyses of
ethnic disparities in Covid-19 mortality.
“Today’s report confirms that when
adjusting for age, rates of death involv-
Ethnic risk not due to existing illnesses
Kat Lay
ing Covid-19 remain greater for most
ethnic minority groups, and most nota-
bly so for people of black African, black
Caribbean, Bangladeshi and Pakistani
ethnic background.
“Our statistical modelling shows that
a large proportion of the difference in
the risk of Covid-19 mortality between
ethnic groups can be explained by
demographic, geographical and socio-
economic factors, such as where you
live or the occupation you are in.
“It also found that although specific
pre-existing conditions place people at
greater risk of Covid-19 mortality
generally, it does not explain the re-
maining ethnic background differences
in mortality.”
The ONS modelling showed that,
outside care homes and adjusted for
age, men from a black African back-
ground were 3.8 times more likely to die
from Covid than white men, and for
women the death rate was 2.9 times
higher.
All ethnic groups apart from Chinese
women were at higher risk of dying
from Covid-19 than the white ethnic
population.
Even after geography, socio-eco-
nomic characteristics and existing
health conditions were taken into ac-
count, men from black African back-
grounds had a 2.5 times higher risk of
Covid-19 death, and women a 2.1 times
higher risk.
The same was true for men in all
ethnic minority groups other than
Chinese, and for women in all
ethnic minority groups other than
Bangladeshi, Chinese and mixed ethnic
groups.
When the care home population
was looked at separately, men from
Asian backgrounds and women from
black and Asian backgrounds had
a raised risk of dying from Covid
compared with white care home resi-
dents, even after geography and
health conditions were taken into ac-
count.
Differences between ethnicities in
care homes were, however, less marked
than those in private homes.
Between March 2 and July 28, 6.5 per
cent of men living in care homes died
from Covid-19 and 4.5 per cent of
women.