Men illegally mine
for coal to be used
to heat homes
in Walbrzych,
Poland, in 2013ments from its central budget. Poland joined in 2004, after adopting
a market economy and becoming a democracy.
But since the very beginning, tensions have existed between
richer and poorer countries in the union over everything from fis-
cal policy to defense and migration. The need to respond to climate
change is no different, especially as it’s the poorer, largely Central
and Eastern European nations whose economies depend more on
heavy-polluting industry.
The Green Deal was born out of all those challenges. A new econ-
omy, European leaders hope, will lead to a revived and more inte-
grated Continent. “The European Green Deal is Europe’s new growth
strategy,” said von der Leyen before she presented the program in
December. “It will cut emissions while also creating jobs and im-
proving our quality of life.”
At first, Poland rejected the plan’s ambitions. President Andrzej
Duda had promised to save the coal industry and its jobs—part of
a controversial populist appeal to national identity and heritage.
“As long as I am the President,” he said in 2018, “I won’t allow
for anyone to murder Polish mining.” For months, Duda’s govern-
ment opposed the bloc’s 2050 carbon-neutrality target, the only
E.U. country to do so.Then the corona virus pandemic
hit. Rather than slow down the pro-
cess, leaders in Brussels saw an op-
portunity to expedite their plans.
The E.U. Commission—the bloc’s
executive body—promised to pour
hundreds of billions of euros into
the economy in response to the virus
and the subsequent lockdowns that
halted economies across the Conti-
nent. A quarter of the €750 billion
recovery plan would be directed to-
ward low-carbon investments; the re-
mainder of the funds came with a “do
no harm” provision, meaning the in-
vestment shouldn’t be used on proj-
ects that harm the environment. And,
to keep up the momentum, E.U. lead-
ership promised to spend that pro-
portion of the bloc’s budget on green
measures over the next seven years.
Polish leaders in Warsaw faced
a conundrum: the government re-
mained rhetorically committed to
coal, but the economics had be-
come increasingly difficult. Until the
corona virus plunged the world into
global recession, Poland had expe-
rienced three decades of sustained
economic expansion. But the coun-
try would need to rethink its econ-
omy to return to growth. As electric-
ity demand plummeted, caused by
the pandemic and subsequent lock-
downs, coal mines shuttered with
difficult economic headwinds an-
ticipated ahead even when the pan-
demic eases. And leaders in Brussels
demanded that the country commit
to net zero to be eligible for all of its
allocated money under the Just Tran-
sition program.
So, slowly, Poland changed its
tone. In late July, after months of
foot dragging, Polish leaders signed
on to the package. The deal would
allow Poland to receive half of its al-
located Just Transition money even
if it didn’t commit to eliminating its
carbon footprint. Polish Prime Minis-
ter Mateusz Morawiecki hailed it as a
victory: “We won,” he said. But it was
also a major concession to the E.U.:
Poland accepted that it would lose out
on billions of euros unless it quickly
changed course.
MATTHEW BUSCH With that money on the line, the