74 Time November 2/November 9, 2020
“There are decades
where nothing happens; and
there are weeks where de
cades happen.” Often attributed to
Vladimir Lenin, this quote says a lot
about the impact of the novel corona
virus in an already fastchanging
world. There is no history changing
revolution on the horizon, but the past
few months of the pandemic have tur
bocharged four of the most significant
geo political trends of recent decades:
growing inequality, eroding legitimacy
of democratic institutions, antiquated
global architecture and ever faster lev
els of technological disruption.
GLOBAL INEQUALITY
Inequality within countries was a
problem long before any of us had
ever heard the term COVID. In the
pandemic’s early days, the U.S. Con
gress responded with strong fiscal
stimulus, but the contentious elec
tion season has brought bipartisan
cooperation to a halt. Economic con
ditions will worsen as unemployment
insurance funding runs low, the num
ber of foreclosures grows, furloughs
become permanent, and winter makes
life even more difficult for restaurants
and the travel industry. This isn’t just
a U.S. trend; political leaders around
the world are now debating whether
they can afford more fiscal stimulus at
a time when many people desperately
need it. And as the global economy
sputters forward, widening wealth
divides will spur anger and protests.
THE CRUMBLING LEGITIMACY
OF POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS
In the U.S., deep divisions within the
electorate and growing public anger at
the nation’s political establishment have
been building for years. The President,
Congress, the civil service and the news
media have increasingly become targets
of public vitriol. In 2020, COVID19 has
proved that even an object as innocu
ous as a surgical mask can become part
of a culture war. Democrats and Re
publicans have also divided sharply on
how best to balance the needs of pub
lic health and economic vitality. The
problem of political polarization and
reduced confidence in institutions is
accelerating globally. Many countries
have seen protests against COVID
created lockdowns—and also against
leaders who did not take public health
seriously.
SHIFTING GEO POLITICAL
ARCHITECTURE
Even before the arrival of the corona
virus, the world had entered a period
of geopolitical recession, one in which
international leadership and crossbor
der cooperation were evaporating, with
fewer recognized referees to rebuild
confidence in the existing global sys
tem. The pandemic and its economic
and political effects have revealed just
how broken the international system
really is and how inadequate our Cold War–era multi national institu
tions are for the tasks at hand. A prime example: a “my country first”
approach to vaccine development and distribution will damage every
one by encouraging vaccine hoarding, breeding international animosi
ties and ensuring that those who need help most will receive it last.
DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY
We’re witnessing an acceleration in the rivalry between the still dom
inant U.S. and the still ascending China. No arena of competition will
become more important than the creation of disruptive new tech
nologies. COVID19 has accelerated investment in automation of
the workplace, machine learning and AI. In essence, the pandemic
has decimated the engines of the 20th century economy— factories
and brickandmortar retail—while turbocharging the engines of the
21st, like information technology and online retail.
As with every great technological leap forward in human history,
the digital revolution will create both winners and losers. Over time,
these and other technologies will unlock more human potential by
creating unprecedented opportunities for distance learning, the prac
tice of tele medicine, advances in agriculture and the breakthroughs
that will create the “smart cities” of the future. The most innovative
parts of our economies have suffered the least damage.
There are segments of society that can’t make this great leap for
ward. The question of how governments can rewrite the social con
tract to provide for as many as possible remains urgent and vital.
FASTER
AND MORE
DANGEROUS
The pandemic has put global trends into
hyperdrive. We need to adapt By Ian Bremmer
THE MOST
INNOVATIVE PARTS
OF OUR
ECONOMIES HAVE
SUFFERED THE
LEAST DAMAGE
THE GREAT RESET
THE K-SHAPED RECOVERY
PRE-COVID-19 RECESSION RECOVERY
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
RECOVERING
Tech
Retail
Software
services
NEED
ASSISTANCE
Travel
Entertainment
Hospitality
Food services
