That’s an extraordinary change: In 1972, only
5 percent of votes were cast prior to Election
Day, and by 2016 it was 42.5 percent. That
profoundly affects how the results are reported.
Some states begin counting early votes as
they come in. Some wait until Election Day or
even after polls close. Some key states count
absentee ballots only if they are postmarked
by Election Day. Elsewhere, ballots can arrive as
late as Nov. 13, as is the case in Ohio.
Some states have enough experience that their
counts usually go quickly and smoothly. Other
counts are more problematic. Florida and North
Carolina are two battleground states that have,
historically, done well at counting and posting
the results of mail ballots on election night.
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are prohibited
by state law from processing mail ballots
until Election Day. It can be a cumbersome
process, and since neither state has
experience counting as many ballots as are
expected this year, it may be days before
their results are known.
With more Democrats than Republicans voting
early, the pace of how votes are reported is also
important. Some states will release early votes
before the Election Day tallies. That can make
the first numbers shown on the screen appear
deceptive, said Steve Kornacki, elections guru
at MSNBC.
The challenge is knowing all those
idiosyncrasies and communicating them
clearly, he said.
“When I say I want a few more days (to study),
that’s why,” he said.