Bloomberg Businessweek - USA (2020-11-09)

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November 9, 2020

Republicans are

likely to extend their

six-year control

of the U.S. Senate

even after polls, the

pandemic, and heaps

of campaign cash had

Democrats expecting

victory heading into

the election. Although

Democrats picked up

seats in Colorado and

Arizona, there were few

other bright spots on

the map for the party.

At press time, several

Senate races remained

outstanding, leaving

both parties with hope

of further gains.

A Republican Senate

would have the power

to cripple the agenda of

a President Joe Biden.

It would mean an end to

pre-election discussion

of sweeping progressive

social, economic, and

environmental measures,

as well as any potential

expansion of the

Supreme Court.

With Trump-

nominated Justice Amy

Coney Barrett having

bolstered a conservative

majority on the Supreme

Court, Democrats also

would lack legislative

recourse to address

any rulings that would

reshape abortion rights

or health care.

The outlook for a

huge stimulus package

is murky: The Trump

administration and

House Democrats had

been negotiating roughly

$2 trillion of pandemic

relief before Election

Day, but Senate Majority

Leader Mitch McConnell

said the Republicans

wouldn’t support a

package that costly.

The exact balance

of power in the Senate

won’t be known until

January, when at least

one race in Georgia

will head to a runoff.

�Steven T. Dennis and

Amanda Kolson Hurley

A RED FORTRESS,

NOT A BLUE WAVE

thanexpected.Thebigsurprisescame

fromfirst-timecandidatesprevailing

in swing districts expected to go to

Democrats. Maria Salazar of Florida

and Nicole Malliotakis of New York both

ousted incumbents, and Iowa will send

an all-female delegation to Congress led

by Senator Joni Ernst, who fended off a

well-funded challenger.

“One of the lessons is that in order

to see gains in representation, you

need more women on the ballot,”says

Kelly Dittmar, director of researchat

the Center for American Womenand

Politics.Theproblemis,Republican

womentraditionallyhavehada hard

timemakingit thatfar.Some 250 ranfor

officethisyear,a record.Butonly 102

squeakedthroughtheprimaries.The

GOP,asa rule,doesn’tgetinvolvedin

contestedprimaries,especiallynotto

pushthrougha candidateofacertain

gender. “It shouldn’t be based on

lookingfora specificsetofingredients—

gender, race, religion,” National

Republican Congressional Committee

Chairman Tom Emmer has said.

Democrats have a well-funded

andwell-oiledsystemtoelectfemale

lawmakers up and down the ballot.

Emily’s List, which supports female

Democrats in favor of abortion rights,

raised 75 times more money than

Stefanik’s E-PAC this cycle.

After the 2018 rout for Republican

women, Stefanik pledged to play more

aggressively in primaries, and actively re-

cruited and supported at least 12 women

who’ve won races this cycle. So far, the

partyapparatushasn’t followedher

lead.ButtheNov.3 electionresultssug-

gestthatif it did,genderdiversity would

follow. At stake isn’t just a more repre-

sentative governing body, but also the

support of those suburban moms whom

Trump, and the party, want desperately

to like them. �Rebecca Greenfield

▶MARKKELLY

▷MARTHAMCSALLY

FormerNavypilotand

astronautMarkKelly,

a Democrat,unseated

McSally,markinga

leftwardturnin the

formerGOPstronghold

ofArizona.

▶ LINDSEY GRAHAM

▷ JAIME HARRISON

Fueled by a late surge

in donations and a climb

in thepolls, Democrat

Harrison aimed to pull

offthe upset of 2020

against three-term

incumbent Graham—

butfell short.

▶JOHN

HICKENLOOPER

▷ CORY GARDNER

Former Colorado

Governor (and 2020

presidential candidate)

Hickenlooper won

back a seat Democrats

lost in 2014, defeating

one-term Republican

incumbent Gardner.

▶ SUSAN COLLINS

▷ SARA GIDEON

The centrist Republican

prevailed over

Gideon, speaker of

Maine’s House of

Representatives, to

secure a fifth term in

the Senate.

▶TOMMY

TUBERVILLE 

▷ DOUG JONES

The improbable 2017 win

of Jones, a Democrat,in

deep-redAlabamawas

largelyduetohisthen-

opponent, Roy Moore,

being mired in a sexual

misconduct scandal. As

expected, Jones lost his

seat to former Auburn

University football coach

Tuberville, a pickup for

Republicans.

▶JONIERNST

▷THERESA

GREENFIELD

A tight race in

Iowa between

incumbent Ernst

and businesswoman

Greenfield ended

with Ernst’s victory,

keeping the seat in the

Republican column.

GEORGIA SPECIAL

ELECTION

In Georgia’s free-for-all

special election for the

Senate seat currently

held by Republican

▶ Kelly Loeffler,

▷ Raphael Warnock,

a Democratic pastor

and activist, came out

ahead—butnotby

enoughtoavoida runoff

againstsecond-place

Loeffler in January.

▶ STEVE DAINES

▷ STEVE BULLOCK

Montana’s closely

fought “Battle of the

Steves” culminated

in Republican Daines

successfully defending

his seat from a

challenge by Bullock,

the state’s Democratic

sitting governor.

▶ Stefanik