The New York Times - USA (2020-11-15)

THE NEW YORK TIMES NATIONALSUNDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2020 N 21

Scarred or energized by Presi-
dent Trump’s four years, Ameri-
cans voted in record numbers for
the 2020 election despite a pan-
demic.
Once again, Mr. Trump found a
trove of new followers in a fast-de-
clining monolith of white blue-col-
lar voters that went largely unde-
tected by the public opinion polls.
He confounded expectations fur-
ther by adding a substantial num-
ber of votes in areas with a lot of
Hispanic residents as well.
But while Mr. Trump’s divisive
message and norm-defying presi-
dency galvanized an unexpect-
edly large following in 2020, it
alienated a bigger one. Mr. Biden
rode the enthusiasm of a slightly
tarnished Democratic coalition,
along with a wave of desertions
from the Republican white middle
class, to win.
An analysis of voting patterns
across more than 2,000 counties
where counting was at least 95
percent complete shows some of
the major ways that this flood of
voters upended traditional politi-
cal alignments, setting a new
stage for the post-Trump era.

Trump’s Feat

After winning in 2016 in what
many viewed as a fluke, Mr.
Trump mounted a registration
and turnout drive in the counties
of his white, blue-collar base that
appears to have succeeded.
“The Trump campaign worked
on this for years, and pretty much
kept it under wraps,” said Larry J.
Sabato, professor of politics at the
University of Virginia. “They told
us they were doing it, but we re-
ally didn’t know the extent of it.”
Trump votes swelled in the Ap-
palachians and the Piedmont
South, in many of the same coun-
ties that dissented from the coun-
try’s embrace of the first Black
American president — Barack
Obama — in 2008. He found even
more votes in the rural centers of
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and
the farmlands of the Midwest.
And in a feat likely to touch off
years of Democratic hand-wring-
ing, Mr. Trump won a healthy
share of additional Hispanic vot-
ers and may have benefited a little

from reduced enthusiasm for Mr.

Biden in some Democratic coun-

ties with large Black populations.

It’s true that substantial major-

ities still voted Democratic in ar-

eas with concentrations of people

of color. But in a polarized and

evenly divided electorate, any

shift can be significant.

Turnout in Philadelphia

precincts where the population is

predominantly Black was down 6

percent. In mostly rural areas

across the South that are mostly

Black, turnout was up only

slightly, and there was a modest

shift to Mr. Trump. The exception

was heavily contested Georgia,

where turnout in areas with a

large share of Black voters was

way up, and shifted strongly to Mr.

Biden.

The trend in majority Hispanic

counties was more pronounced,

widespread and perhaps surpris-

ing in light of the president’s hard-

line immigration policies and divi-

sive messaging. This shift was es-

pecially stark in southern Florida,

where many Cuban-Americans

live. It was also apparent in coun-

ties in southern Texas that are

predominantly Mexican-Ameri-

can, and in the flood of new voters

in Phoenix, where Mr. Biden’s suc-

cess in adding to 2016 Clinton to-

tals was noticeably lower in His-

panic areas.

“The president made signifi-

cant inroads with critical non-

white swaths of the electorate

while also growing his share of ru-

ral white voters,” said Ken Spain, a

Republican strategist. “In any

other election year, this would be

an incredible feat that would all

but guarantee victory.”

How Did Biden Win?

There was a countervailing force.

Mr. Biden’s biggest cache of addi-

tional voters came from big coun-

ties — urban and suburban — that

are mostly white, where his sup-

port increased substantially from

Hillary Clinton’s vote in 2016.

This includes counties like Du-

Page in Illinois, Macomb outside

Detroit and Montgomery outside

Philadelphia.

But it also includes big cities in

the South and West, like Charlotte,

N.C.; Fort Worth; Phoenix; and

Seattle. In Republican Fort Worth,

Mr. Biden got 121,000 more votes

than Mrs. Clinton had; Mr. Trump

got 62,000 more than in 2016. In

Seattle, Mr. Biden’s increase of

186,000 votes dwarfed Mr.

Trump’s additional 51,000.

In fact, Mr. Biden’s best hunting

grounds for new voters were posh

Republican counties. In areas

with very high concentrations of

white, high-income voters who

voted for Mr. Trump in 2016, Mr.

Biden garnered substantially

more additional votes than his op-

ponent.

Statistically, whether or not

American voters had college de-

grees was by far the most signifi-

cant predictor of where the 2020

tide of additional turnout was

highest, and who won it. This met-

ric is a stand-in for socioeconomic

status — closely following pat-

terns of higher income. Thus it

could also be an indicator of cul-

tural security, comfort and enfran-

chisement.

There was a stark schism in the

white vote apparent along this

fault line: Populist areas, high-

lighted by concentrations of white

voters without a college degree,

moved toward Mr. Trump. White

areas with better-educated popu-

lations, whether cities, suburbs or

college towns, moved decisively

away.

The result was a substantial

popular vote margin for Mr. Bi-

den, and just enough votes in bat-

tlegrounds to win the Electoral

College.

“Trump’s appeal to college-edu-

cated whites, especially women,

was never very strong,” said Mr.

Sabato, the University of Virginia

professor. “Trump’s character and

antics in office sent his backing

among this large group plummet-

ing. Blue-collar whites loved it,

but their numbers could not sub-

stitute for losses elsewhere.”

+10,000+50,000+100,000+200,000

Color indicates who won more new votes. Circle sizes indicate margin in new votes won. Insufficient data

Joseph R. Biden Jr. Donald J. Trump

Where Each Party Won More New Votes

Miami-Dade County gave Mr.

Trump 200,000 more votes

than in 2016, while Mr. Biden

received fewer votes than

Hillary Clinton had.

Mr. Biden made huge gains in urban parts

of Texas, but not nearly enough to flip the

state blue. Voters in predominantly

Hispanic counties in southern and

western Texas moved to the right.

Mr. Biden flipped Georgia in

large part because of a huge

advantage in additional voters

in the Greater Atlanta area.

In Arizona, Mr. Biden made

enough gains in the Phoenix and

Tucson areas to flip the state.

Mr. Trump found additional

voters in counties across

the rural heartland,

cementing his strength

with the base that gave

him the 2016 win.

THE NEW YORK TIMES

Miamii

JaJaJackJaJaJ sonville

HousHoHoHoHoHHoHousHoHousuusustonton

SanAntonnionn

AusAustAusAususinn

Phoenix

Los Angeeeeeles

Las as as ssVegaVVVV s

SaltSSSSttttLakLakLakLakLake City

DenvDeDeDeD errrr

Minnnnnnnnnneeeapoee lisss

San n nn FranFranFranFranFraFraFraFraFraFrancccisccco

Portorrtrtrttlanlandlandlanland

Seateateateatatttletletletletletletletlelele

DallDallDallDalDaaaasaa

KansKanKanKanKanas Cas Cas Cas Cityiiitytytyty

AtlaAtAtAtAtntaaaaaaaa

ChChChCharharharharharhlottlotlotltottteeee

Ralalealealaliighiii

PhilPhilPPPPPhilPhiPPhiladeladeadeadeadephia

BoBostBooon

Deeetreeoit

ChChiChicChiChihiiciago

IIIndindididianapanapanapanapanapanapanapanapanapolisolisolisolisolis

PiPiPiPittittsbursbursbursburburghghghghgh

NNNashNashNashNashNashNN vilvilvillvivie

San Diegooooo

FLA.AAA

GA.GAAA

S.C.

NN.C.C

VA.VV

MD.MDMDMDMM

N.J.J

DEL.

W. VA .W. VAWW. VAW. VA

KYKY.YYY

ILL.

MO.

ARK.ARK..

OKLA.LALALALA

TENN.TEN

IOWIOWA

MINN.

WIS.

MICH.MMMMCHCH

IND.NDNDDD

OHIOOHOOO

PA. A..

N.Y.

MAINE

MASMASS.MASMAMAS

CONN.CONN.CONN.CONN.CONN.R.I.R.I.R.I.R.I.R.I.R

N.H.N.H.N.H.N.HN.H.

VT.VV

ALAA.

MISS.

LA.

TEXASTEXAS

N.M.

HAWAII

ARIZ.

ALASKA

CALIF.

ORE.

WASH.

IDDAHO

NEVNEV.

UTTAH

WYO.

COLO. KAN.AA

NEB.

S.D.

MMONT. N.D.

Even in Defeat, Trump Found New Supporters Across the Country

This article is by Ford Fessenden,
Lazaro Gamioand Rich Harris.

Total New Votes For Trump

Total New Democratic Votes

TRUMP 2016 TRUMP 2020 GAIN

63 million 72.5 million +9.5 million

CLINTON 2016 BIDEN 2020 GAIN

65.8 million 77.6 million +11.7 million

Total New Votes in 2020 Compared With 2016

New votes10,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 Color indicates which party won more new votes.

Joseph R. Biden Jr. Donald J. Trump

Roughly even

THE NEW YORK TIMES

BIDEN TRUMP

Arizona

15 counties +44% +32%

Florida

61 counties +17% +24%

Georgia

159 counties

+32% +18%

Michigan

83 counties

+23% +16%

North Carolina

100 counties +22% +17%

Pennsylvania

67 counties +16% +13%

Texas

136 counties

+39% +26%

Wisconsin

72 counties

+18% +15%

Change in Number of Votes

Cast in Battleground States

THE NEW YORK TIMES

Change in Number of Votes Cast BIDEN TRUMP

Large counties with people of color in the majority
30 counties

+20% +29%

Majority Hispanic
45 counties

+17% +37%

Black rural
38 counties +4% +7%

Heavily white, no college
215 counties +10% +15%

Heavily white, college educated
30 counties

+25% +11%

Majority white, college educated and Republican
22 counties

+20% +6%

Large counties with a white majority
27 counties +27% +18%

THE NEW YORK TIMES

Sources: National Election Pool/Edison

Research; Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential

Elections | Notes: The analysis is based on

2020 election results as of noon Eastern time

on Nov. 11. Only counties that have counted at

least 95 percent of ballots are included in this

analysis. Historical regional data is not avail-

able for Alaska.

Transition in WashingtonThe Turnout