TheEconomistNovember 21st 2020 411“I
saw thedust clouds covering the sky,”
says a young university lecturer, de-
scribing the bombing by a government
warplane of a resort on the outskirts of Ala-
mata, a small town in Ethiopia’s northern
region of Tigray. In normal times Alamata
is known for its beautiful green moun-
tains. Now it is a battleground in Ethiopia’s
civil war, which broke out on November
4th between the federal government and
Tigray’s rulers, the Tigrayan People’s Liber-
ation Front (tplf).
As he fled towards Afar, a neighbouring
state (see map on next page), the lecturer
saw lorries carrying federal soldiers driv-
ing the other way. By the time the convoy
reached Alamata, the town was almost de-
serted. Most Tigrayan civilians had already
left and Tigrayan armed forces were re-
treating into the mountains.
On November 16th the federal govern-
ment announced that its forces had cap-
tured Alamata, which is on Tigray’s south-
eastern border, about 120km from the re-gional capital of Mekelle. It also appears to
have captured a town farther north, as well
as key territory in western Tigray. This sug-
gests the Ethiopian army has made some
important gains since it was ordered into
action by Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy
Ahmed, to put down what he claimed was
an armed revolt by the tplf. On November
17th Abiy said the battle was entering its “fi-
nal phase” and that his troops were making
brisk progress towards Mekelle.
But it is far too soon to suggest that
these early victories herald a short or easily
contained war. On the contrary, as the tplf
has faced setbacks on its borders, it appearsto have tried to widen the conflict, perhaps
in a gamble that this will increase interna-
tional pressure on the federal government
to agree to peace talks, and that it will give
the tplfcards to play once the negotia-
tions start. On November 14th it fired rock-
ets over the border at Asmara, the capital of
neighbouring Eritrea.
The attack threatens to drag Eritrea into
a conflict in Ethiopia barely two years after
the two countries made peace. “It was a leg-
itimate target,” says Debretsion Gebre-
michael, Tigray’s president. He claims
Ethiopian forces were using Asmara air-
port—which is probably true—and says Ti-
grayan forces are fending off 16 Eritrean di-
visions on several fronts.
The Eritrean government denies any in-
volvement in Ethiopia’s conflict. But few
doubt that its president, Issaias Afwerki,
would like to see the Tigrayans routed. Be-
tween 1998 and 2000 the newly indepen-
dent Eritrea fought a bitter border war
against Ethiopia, then dominated by the
tplf, that cost perhaps 100,000 lives. De-
bretsion (as well as some eyewitnesses)
claims that Eritrean soldiers in recent days
have been involved in fighting near the
border. At a minimum, retreating Ethiopi-
an troops have been allowed to regroup on
Eritrean soil before returning to battle.
The tplfhas also struck inside Ethio-
pia, firing rockets at two airports in Am-
hara, the second-most-populous of Ethio-Ethiopia’s civil warThe march to Mekelle
ADDIS ABABA
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