The Economist - USA (2020-11-28)

80 The EconomistNovember 28th 2020

Economic data

Gross domestic product Consumer prices Unemployment Current-account Budget Interest rates Currency units

% change on year ago % change on year ago rate balance balance 10-yr gov't bonds change on per $ % change

latest quarter* 2020† latest 2020† % % of GDP, 2020† % of GDP, 2020† latest,% year ago, bp Nov 25th on year ago

United States -2.9 Q3 33.1 -3.8 1.2 Oct 1.2 6.9 Oct -2.3 -14.9 0.9 -88.0 -

China 4.9 Q3 11.2 1.8 0.5 Oct 2.9 4.2 Q3§ 1.7 -5.6 3.2 §§ 17.0 6.58 6.8

Japan -5.8 Q3 21.4 -6.4 -0.4 Oct 0.2 3.0 Sep 2.6 -11.3 nil -8.0 104 4.3

Britain -9.6 Q3 78.0 -11.3 0.7 Oct 1.0 4.8 Aug†† -1.5 -19.4 0.4 -42.0 0.75 2.7

Canada -13.0 Q2 -38.7 -5.8 0.7 Oct 0.7 8.9 Oct -2.1 -13.0 0.7 -75.0 1.30 2.3

Euro area -4.4 Q3 60.5 -8.0 -0.3 Oct 0.3 8.3 Sep 2.2 -9.1 -0.6 -21.0 0.84 8.3

Austria -14.3 Q2 -38.2 -6.4 1.3 Oct 1.1 5.5 Sep 1.1 -8.1 -0.4 -31.0 0.84 8.3

Belgium -5.1 Q3 50.2 -7.9 0.7 Oct 0.4 5.2 Sep -1.1 -9.7 -0.4 -33.0 0.84 8.3

France -4.3 Q3 95.4 -9.5 nil Oct 0.5 7.9 Sep -1.9 -10.7 -0.3 -29.0 0.84 8.3

Germany -4.0 Q3 38.5 -5.8 -0.2 Oct 0.5 4.5 Sep 5.5 -7.2 -0.6 -21.0 0.84 8.3

Greece -15.3 Q2 -45.4 -9.0 -1.8 Oct -1.4 16.8 Aug -2.9 -7.9 0.7 -73.0 0.84 8.3

Italy -4.7 Q3 81.8 -9.1 -0.3 Oct -0.2 9.6 Sep 2.6 -11.0 0.6 -72.0 0.84 8.3

Netherlands -2.5 Q3 34.5 -6.0 1.2 Oct 1.1 3.8 Mar 7.0 -6.0 -0.6 -33.0 0.84 8.3

Spain -8.7 Q3 85.5 -12.7 -0.8 Oct -0.3 16.5 Sep 0.5 -12.3 0.1 -37.0 0.84 8.3

Czech Republic -10.8 Q2 27.2 -7.0 2.9 Oct 3.2 2.8 Sep‡ -0.5 -7.7 1.3 -23.0 22.0 5.3

Denmark -7.6 Q2 21.1 -4.0 0.4 Oct 0.4 4.8 Sep 10.0 -6.3 -0.5 -13.0 6.25 8.6

Norway -0.2 Q3 19.7 -3.5 1.7 Oct 1.4 5.2 Sep‡‡ 3.1 -1.3 0.8 -56.0 8.86 3.7

Poland -8.0 Q2 34.5 -3.4 3.1 Oct 3.4 6.1 Oct§ 2.7 -8.0 1.3 -79.0 3.75 4.0

Russia -3.6 Q3 na -4.4 4.0 Oct 3.3 6.3 Oct§ 1.7 -4.3 6.1 -41.0 76.0 -15.7

Sweden -4.1 Q3 18.3 -3.9 0.3 Oct 0.4 7.8 Oct§ 4.3 -4.2 nil nil 8.53 13.0

Switzerland -8.3 Q2 -26.1 -4.3 -0.6 Oct -0.9 3.3 Oct 9.2 -4.6 -0.5 8.0 0.91 9.9

Turkey -9.9 Q2 na -3.9 11.9 Oct 12.0 13.2 Aug§ -4.5 -5.1 11.9 -22.0 7.96 -27.9

Australia -6.3 Q2 -25.2 -4.4 0.7 Q3 0.7 7.0 Oct 1.1 -7.6 0.9 -16.0 1.36 8.8

Hong Kong -3.5 Q3 11.8 -5.5 -0.1 Oct 0.4 6.4 Oct‡‡ 5.4 -5.9 0.7 -84.0 7.75 1.0

India -23.9 Q2 -69.4 -9.8 7.6 Oct 6.5 7.0 Oct 0.7 -7.8 5.9 -58.0 73.9 -3.0

Indonesia -3.5 Q3 na -2.2 1.4 Oct 1.9 7.1 Q3§ -1.8 -7.1 6.2 -88.0 14,148 -0.5

Malaysia -2.7 Q3 na -8.0 -1.5 Oct -1.1 4.6 Sep§ 2.1 -8.1 2.7 -76.0 4.09 2.2

Pakistan 0.5 2020** na -2.8 8.9 Oct 9.8 5.8 2018 -0.4 -8.0 9.9 ††† -150 159 -2.4

Philippines -11.5 Q3 36.0 -6.1 2.5 Oct 2.4 10.0 Q3§ 0.9 -7.8 3.0 -169 48.1 5.5

Singapore -5.8 Q3 42.3 -6.0 -0.2 Oct -0.4 3.6 Q3 18.0 -13.9 0.9 -83.0 1.34 2.2

South Korea -1.3 Q3 7.9 -1.2 0.1 Oct 0.5 3.7 Oct§ 3.8 -5.7 1.6 -10.0 1,109 6.1

Taiwan 3.3 Q3 18.9 2.1 -0.2 Oct -0.3 3.8 Oct 13.2 -1.5 0.3 -42.0 28.5 7.0

Thailand -6.4 Q3 28.8 -5.9 -0.5 Oct -0.8 1.9 Aug§ 3.1 -6.4 1.2 -26.0 30.3 -0.3

Argentina -19.1 Q2 -50.7 -11.3 37.2 Oct‡ 42.0 13.1 Q2§ 2.4 -9.2 na -464 80.8 -26.1

Brazil -11.4 Q2 -33.5 -5.2 3.9 Oct 3.1 14.4 Aug§‡‡ -0.4 -15.9 2.0 -262 5.34 -21.2

Chile -9.1 Q3 22.6 -5.9 2.9 Oct 2.9 12.3 Sep§‡‡ 0.2 -8.9 2.6 -66.0 772 3.0

Colombia -9.5 Q3 39.6 -7.3 1.7 Oct 2.6 15.8 Sep§ -4.6 -8.8 4.9 -135 3,622 -4.9

Mexico -8.6 Q3 57.4 -9.0 4.1 Oct 3.5 3.3 Mar 1.7 -5.3 5.6 -149 20.1 -3.1

Peru -9.4 Q3 187 -13.0 1.7 Oct 1.8 15.7 Oct§ -1.1 -9.2 4.0 -28.0 3.61 -6.1

Egypt -1.7 Q2 na 3.6 4.6 Oct 4.9 7.3 Q3§ -3.3 -8.8 na nil 15.7 3.1

Israel -1.9 Q3 37.9 -4.0 -0.8 Oct -0.6 4.7 Oct 3.8 -11.1 0.8 -7.0 3.32 4.5

Saudi Arabia 0.3 2019 na -5.2 5.8 Oct 3.4 9.0 Q2 -3.9 -10.9 na nil 3.75 nil

South Africa -17.1 Q2 -51.0 -7.7 3.3 Oct 3.3 30.8 Q3§ -2.1 -16.0 8.9 40.0 15.3 -3.1

Source: Haver Analytics. *% change on previous quarter, annual rate. †The Economist Intelligence Unit estimate/forecast. §Not seasonally adjusted. ‡New series. **Year ending June. ††Latest 3 months. ‡‡3-month moving

average. §§5-year yield. †††Dollar-denominated bonds.

Commodities

TheEconomist commodity-price index % change on

2015=100 Nov 17th Nov 24th* month year

DollarIndex

AllItems 135.1 136.9 15.9 23.1

Food 111.7 112.9 4.8 15.7

Industrials

All 157.0 159.3 24.7 28.6

Non-foodagriculturals 111.4 112.6 4.4 13.8

Metals 170.5 173.1 29.5 32.0

SterlingIndex

Allitems 155.5 156.4 13.4 18.4

EuroIndex

Allitems 126.2 127.9 15.5 14.2

Gold

$ peroz 1,887.3 1,805.5 -5.5 23.7

Brent

$ perbarrel 43.8 47.9 16.2 -21.4

Sources:Bloomberg; CME Group; Cotlook; Refinitiv Datastream;

Fastmarkets;FT; ICCO; ICO; ISO; Live Rice Index; LME; NZ Wool

Services;Thompson Lloyd & Ewart; Urner Barry; WSJ. *Provisional.

Markets

% change on: % change on:

Index one Dec 31st index one Dec 31st

In local currency Nov 25th week 2019 Nov 25th week 2019

United States S&P 500 3,629.7 1.7 12.3

United States NAScomp 12,094.4 2.5 34.8

China Shanghai Comp 3,362.3 0.4 10.2

China Shenzhen Comp 2,254.3 -0.3 30.8

Japan Nikkei 225 26,296.9 2.2 11.2

Japan Topix 1,767.7 2.7 2.7

Britain FTSE 100 6,391.1 0.1 -15.3

Canada S&P TSX 17,313.1 2.5 1.5

Euro area EURO STOXX 50 3,511.9 0.9 -6.2

France CAC 40 5,571.3 1.1 -6.8

Germany DAX* 13,289.8 0.7 0.3

Italy FTSE/MIB 22,303.6 3.1 -5.1

Netherlands AEX 606.4 0.9 0.3

Spain IBEX 35 8,164.7 2.3 -14.5

Poland WIG 53,401.8 2.2 -7.7

Russia RTS, $ terms 1,301.8 2.0 -16.0

Switzerland SMI 10,488.3 -0.7 -1.2

Tu r ke y BIST 1,325.5 2.4 15.8

Australia All Ord. 6,888.2 2.4 1.3

Hong Kong Hang Seng 26,669.8 0.5 -5.4

India BSE 43,828.1 -0.8 6.2

Indonesia IDX 5,701.0 2.6 -9.5

Malaysia KLSE 1,597.6 -0.4 0.6

Pakistan KSE 40,377.5 -0.3 -0.9

Singapore STI 2,869.6 2.9 -11.0

South Korea KOSPI 2,601.5 2.2 18.4

Taiwan TWI 13,738.8 -0.3 14.5

Thailand SET 1,415.7 3.7 -10.4

Argentina MERV 54,150.7 5.6 29.9

Brazil BVSP 110,132.5 3.8 -4.8

Mexico IPC 42,200.6 -0.1 -3.1

Egypt EGX 30 11,068.4 0.7 -20.7

Israel TA-125 1,519.7 2.3 -6.0

Saudi Arabia Tadawul 8,688.8 0.8 3.6

South Africa JSE AS 57,742.2 0.7 1.2

World, dev'd MSCI 2,589.7 1.8 9.8

Emerging markets MSCI 1,218.3 0.9 9.3

US corporate bonds, spread over Treasuries

Dec 31st

Basis points latest 2019

Investment grade 147 141

High-yield 473 449

Sources: Refinitiv Datastream; Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income

Research. *Total return index.

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