occupancy rates more than doubled from a low of 22% in April to 47% in August. And
travellers are keen to get going. According to Skyscanner, a price-comparison website,
there is plenty of pent-up demand. Searches on the website spike every time Britain
adds a country to its quarantine-exempt list. In China, where covid-19 cases are few,
domestic air-travel approached pre-pandemic levels by August.
Three big changes will define travel in 2021. The first is frequency and length. Short
breaks across borders will remain difficult. As they open, most countries will impose
two-week quarantines on incoming and returning travellers, turning a three-day
holiday into a 31-day ordeal. As a result, trips will be fewer and longer. Thailand, which
depended on tourism for more than 20% of its GDP in 2019, is keen to admit tourists.
But the condition is that they stay for at least 90 days. More countries will follow suit.
A second change is distance. Domestic tourism will boom in 2021. Big destination
countries are trying to make up for the shortfall in international visitors by encouraging
citizens to holiday at home. In America, airlines are betting on Hawaii. Singapore is
giving its citizens S$100 ($75) to spend on local attractions. Even Airbnb’s home page
encourages its customers to “go near”. Holidaymakers will not be difficult to persuade.
Going abroad, although possible, will remain a hassle: countless forms, the need for
covid-19 tests and the risk of being stranded will all discourage foreign travel.
The third change will be in the nature of the holiday. As trips get fewer and longer, those
who can work from home will find an attractive alternative in working from
somewhere-a-lot-nicer-than-home, and with fewer restrictions on movements. Call it
lockdown arbitrage. Many of these changes will persist long after a vaccine has been
widely deployed. Travellers will get used to longer trips, more flexibility and combining
work with leisure. International tourism will eventually recover to its 2019 levels. But,
starting in 2021, it will look rather different.
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