combination of emigration and low birth rates means that these societies are ageing and,
with no inward migration, their populations are shrinking.
In 1989 there were 8.9m Bulgarians; now there are only 6.9m. Three decades ago Serbia
(not including Kosovo) had 7.8m people; today it might have 6.9m. There used to be
23.2m people in Romania, but in 2020 they were estimated to number 19.4m. Moldova,
which will not hold a census until 2023, may have lost a third of its population,
currently about 2.7m, since the end of communist rule.
As for births, Bosnian women have a fertility rate of 1.26, Albanian women of 1.37—
some of the lowest in the world, and far below the replacement level of 2.1. Other
countries, such as Bulgaria, where the rate is 1.56, are closer to the EU average of 1.55,
though without immigration that is not enough to stop the population shrinking.
Economic worries as a result of the coronavirus pandemic mean that women are likely
to have even less babies now than ever before.
The censuses in 2021 should provide governments with the reliable data they need to
plan for everything from kindergartens to pensions, as the better-educated emigrate
and more of the poorly educated and the elderly are left behind. But whatever the
precise numbers, the outlook is not bright. Projections by statisticians at both the UN
and the EU suggest that by 2050 Bulgaria will have lost 39% of its population since
1989, while Bosnia will have lost 37%, Romania 31%, Serbia and Croatia 24% and
Albania 25%.
Such large changes will bring big social and economic consequences. To take one early
example, unemployment used to be a problem across the region. Labour shortages are
now a bigger worry.
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