The Liberal Party government, led by the prime minister, Justin Trudeau, lacks a
majority in its second term and must seek support among the three main opposition
parties to pass legislation. The country rallied round Mr Trudeau as covid-19 struck, but
he will find the going much harder as the pandemic fades. Policy slip-ups could bring
the government to an early end. The economy was hit by the virus and low oil prices in
2020 and although the health crisis will pass, oil will stay cheap. Full recovery will take
years.

Mexico

GDP growth: 3.3%

GDP per head: $8,940 (PPP: $19,160)

Inflation: 3.9%

Budget Balance (% GDP): - 3.2

Population: 130.3m

The president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and the government led by his Morena
party face a reckoning at mid-term elections in June. They will be helped by popular
anti-corruption measures and a weak opposition but hurt by a late and lacklustre
response to covid-19. On balance, they should retain their majority. The government
will pursue redistributive policies to support the poorest, but a slow recovery following
a deep recession in 2020 means there will be less to go round.

TO WATCH: Northwards. After focusing little on foreign policy, Mr López Obrador will
seek better relations with America, Mexico’s main economic partner and home to
almost all of its 12m emigrants.

United States