Inflation: 6.0%

Budget Balance (% GDP): - 5.5

Population: 11.3m

A pro-market reform agenda, already proceeding slowly, was suspended as covid- 19
struck and will resume haltingly as the emergency subsides. The president, Miguel Díaz-
Canel, will gradually yield day-to-day policymaking to the prime minister, Manuel
Marrero, in a departure from the centralised leadership structure. The epidemic has
battered a fragile economy; the recovery will be feeble.

Ecuador

GDP growth: 5.1%

GDP per head: $5,720 (PPP: $11,000)

Inflation: 0.0%

Budget Balance (% GDP): - 2.5

Population: 17.8m

The president, Lenín Moreno, will approach the general election in February unloved by
the public, obstructed by the opposition majority in congress and assailed by a host of
challenges. Fiscal straits meant there was little support for a population wracked by
coronavirus, and austerity will hamper recovery. Protests will resume as the health
emergency eases and the next government, probably under centrist control, will inherit
a fractious public and a limp economy.

Paraguay