A particularly harsh pandemic, economically and medically, will provide ammunition to
nationalist parties ahead of April’s general election, in which the centre-right incumbent,
Martín Vizcarra, cannot stand. The winner will inherit an economy bashed by the
region’s biggest recession but recovering nonetheless, after a decade of strong growth.
Congress will be fragmented and rowdy.

TO WATCH: Freed up. If Mr Vizcarra escapes arrest at the end of his term, he will be the
first of the country’s past five presidents to do so.

Uruguay

GDP growth: 3.5%

GDP per head: $14,710 (PPP: $23,960)

Inflation: 7.5%

Budget Balance (% GDP): - 4.0

Population: 3.5m

Luis Lacalle Pou of the centre-right National Party leads a majority government flush
with public support after effective management of covid-19. Labour unions will resist
efforts to reform social security, and taxes could rise to narrow the post-pandemic fiscal
gap, but productivity and competitiveness reforms should gain ground. Two big
construction projects, a pulp mill and an overhaul of ports and railways, will help the
economy recover.

Venezuela