GDP growth: 3.1%

GDP per head: $900 (PPP: $2,250)

Inflation: 19.3%

Budget Balance (% GDP): - 6.0

Population: 117.9m

The risk of civil war will grow after the prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, sent the army into
the northern region of Tigray to quell opposition. Delayed legislative elections will
probably take place early in 2021, reinforcing the majority held by the ruling Prosperity
Party. Economic liberalisation will take a back seat as the government tries to restore its
high-growth credentials, stunted by two plagues—covid-19 and locusts.

Iran

GDP growth: 2.0 %

GDP per head: $6,150 (PPP: $11,510)

Inflation: 21.3%

Budget Balance (% GDP): - 6.7

Population: 85.0m

The pandemic was an additional blow to an economy already assailed by Western
sanctions, implacable opposition by America and a sharp decline in oil prices—all of
which points to a win for a hardliner in the presidential election in June. The slow
response to covid-19 will stoke public anger and a humanitarian crisis in an already-