must also confront an Islamist insurgency in the north-east, separatism in the south and
anti-police protests that erupted in late 2020. The crisis will boost talk of market-
friendly reforms, but the government’s resolve to pursue them will fade as the economy
rallies.

Saudi Arabia

GDP growth: 2.0%

GDP per head: $20,520 (PPP: $46,150)

Inflation: 1.6%

Budget Balance (% GDP): - 7.8

Population: 35.9m

The ailing king, Salman bin Abdel-Aziz al-Saud, will rely on his son, Mohammad bin
Salman al-Saud, the crown prince, to handle the fallout from covid-19 and a drop in oil
prices. In turn, his heir will prepare for his eventual accession to the throne by
suppressing rival members of the royal family. As the pandemic fades, he will rev up his
policy of social liberalisation blended with rigid political control.

South Africa

GDP growth: 1.5%

GDP per head: $5,110 (PPP: $12,390)