Sales of cars in 2020 were expected to shake off the sluggishness of recent years;
instead, the pandemic brought disaster. Carmakers will get some relief from pent-up
demand in 2021, when sales of both new passenger cars and commercial vehicles will
accelerate by around 15% from the prior year. Europe and America will lead the way
but Asia, the usual driver of progress, has no deep slump to come back from and will be
in a lower gear. No region will regain its 2019 levels. Global sales will still be 5% lower
than before the pandemic, at 84m vehicles.
Electric vehicles will be sparkier, with 3.4m sales in 2021—up from just 2.1m in 2019.
China, which previously accounted for more than half of the EV market, will see its
share drop to 45%, despite extending tax breaks. The EU will lead on growth as it
tightens its emissions rules again and disburses yet more subsidies for electrics. Tesla
and others will expand in China, while China’s BYD will head for Norway, where four
out of ten cars run on batteries. Self-driving cars will lag behind, though BMW will reach
“level 3” automation, making cars that can drive themselves, conditions allowing. Firms
bent on going further will struggle.
Carmakers will combine forces to mend their dented finances. Honda will team up with
General Motors in North America. Fiat Chrysler and Groupe PSA, newly merged, will
become Stellantis, overtaking GM to form the world’s fourth-biggest carmaker. Some car
companies will prune plants to cut costs. Honda will close its British factory in Swindon