TO WATCH: Vertical ascent. High-tech “vertical farming” could help overcome covid-
era food woes. Cultivation occurs indoors in stacked trays that can be tended by
(sickness-immune) robots. Supply lines can be shortened because farms tend to be
located closer to consumers. Larger farms will sprout in 2021 in places as far-flung as
Britain’s Bedfordshire and Houston, Texas.

Health care

The rollout of covid-19 vaccines will be the hope and headache of 2021. Finalising trials
and scaling up production will be hard, the costs of delivery vast. Health-care workers
will be first in line for immunisation, particularly in rich countries. Gavi, an international
vaccine alliance, will lead efforts to provide at least 2bn doses for poorer countries.
Overall, vaccine producers will earn up to $100bn and draw fire if they are seen to be
profiteering. The anti-vax movement will seize on any safety failures.

Meanwhile, covid-19 deaths will ripple past 2m by April. Evidence will build of long-
term effects, including brain damage and chronic fatigue. Hospitals will scramble to
catch up with delayed non-covid care but struggle with quarantine rules. Cancer deaths
will also rise after delays in screening. Telemedicine will catch on rapidly everywhere,
as insurers step up to cover the bills. Mergers between hospitals in America will help
cut costs, though some deals will falter amid economic uncertainty.

Global health-care spending, squeezed during lockdowns, will bounce back by just over
6% in dollar terms. Asia will lead the way as China’s latest five-year plan accelerates
reforms intended to spur innovation among insurers, hospitals and clinics. Pressure on
prices in America and China will slow growth of pharmaceutical sales to 5%, despite
those vaccine sales. Even so, the industry will be one of the few able to invest in
expansion.