Few industries were walloped harder by the pandemic than travel and tourism. More
tourists will venture forth in 2021, but they will face cancellations and quarantines.
International arrivals in the world’s 60 largest economies will rise by 8%—but languish
15% below 2019 levels. Both leisure and business travel will still be suffering. Morgan
Stanley reckons 31% of business travel will shift to online meetings. Millions of tourism-
related jobs will be at risk.
All things being equal, Asia should recover fastest, as Thailand and New Zealand lift
their travel bans. Macau, where tourism brought in more than half of pre-pandemic GDP,
will welcome back non-Chinese visitors. But travellers from China (the world’s top
tourism spender) will tread cautiously, while America (the biggest earner) will stay
selective about visitors. In Europe, Britain will face new checks once the Brexit
transition deal expires, and Venice will levy a tourist tax to limit visitor numbers. Public
events such as the delayed Tokyo Olympics and Dubai Expo will be socially distanced.
Domestic travel, already 75% of tourism revenue in rich countries, will fill some gaps.
Even so, spending at hotels and restaurants, though up on 2020, will be 9% down on
2019 in dollar terms. Government funding will keep many travel companies going. Yet
airlines, despite receiving $123bn in aid, will make a loss of $15bn in 2021. Cargo
demand will outpace passenger numbers, but that will not prevent some airlines from
vanishing. It will not be plain sailing for cruise lines either, as cancellations accumulate.
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