Ordinarily, agencies in financial trouble could turn to their regional or state
governments for help. But local governments face their own revenue problems, for
much the same reason: sharply reduced economic activity leading to a decline in
revenue, and increased costs incurred by the need for more frequent and intense
cleaning, and the provision of protective equipment for their employees. The federal
government provided $25bn to public-transport systems in the CARES Act, enacted in
March. That sounds like a lot, but parcelled out among America’s hundreds of separate
agencies, it was quickly spent. Pat Foye, the chairman of New York’s Metropolitan
Transportation Authority, which runs the city’s buses, subways and commuter rail lines,
warns that his agency faces “a hundred-year fiscal tsunami”.
Without federal help, agencies may need to reduce service dramatically, resulting in less
frequent and more crowded trains and buses—which, in turn, could mean more people
choosing to commute by car, worsening gridlock. Service cuts take a long time to
reverse, particularly when cities and states are digging themselves out of their own
financial holes. Any expansions that looked likely in 2021 will almost certainly be
pushed back.
Around 75% of New Yorkers commute by mass transit; a system slowdown will make
the entire region less productive. The share of the workforce using public transport is
lower in Boston and San Francisco, but shunting those users onto the streets will leave
those cities more gridlocked. In Detroit around 7% of workers commute by bus; cuts
may lead them to drop out of the workforce.
But covid-19 has also pushed systems to innovate and grow more nimble—and those
habits may also endure into 2021. Many cities have rethought the bus-boarding process,
for example. Rather than having everyone file in at the front, increasing the amount of
time that buses wait at stops and making the system less efficient, some have
experimented with all-door boarding.
Public-transport enthusiasts have long cheered dedicated bus lanes—and cities have
learned that making them does not require lengthy approval processes and loads of
capital: just a few cans of paint and a willingness to experiment. Some of these “pop-up
bus lanes” may become permanent as cities take a more nimble, cost-effective approach
to public transport in 2021.
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