2021 will look like, says Ashley Jackson, a researcher at the Overseas Development
Institute, a think-tank in London. The American withdrawal leaves behind a mess. But
one thing seems likely: two decades after being pushed out of Kabul by a coalition of
NATO and the rebels of the Northern Alliance, the Taliban have a good chance of
returning to power. The question is what sort of a government they will join.
Talks were meant to start in March; eventually they kicked off in September in Qatar but
they have moved slowly, and been dominated by arguments over protocols. The
government wants the Taliban to agree to a ceasefire before moving on, but that seems
unlikely. Afghanistan’s government has rarely looked more feeble. Its army, never
exactly effective, is much weaker now that it is deprived of American air support. The
Taliban have forsaken spectacular attacks on American targets, but stepped up targeted
assassinations of Afghan government officials. They have entrenched their control of
some major roads, on which they collect tolls. As the siege of Kabul deepens, the
government’s negotiating power slips away.
The Taliban have contradictory goals. What they clearly want is to be the dominant
force in a new government—an Islamic emirate, not constrained by the constitution
written after the invasion of 2001. But they also seem to want the international aid on
which Afghanistan survives. So a bleak sort of peace might be possible. The trouble for
Ashraf Ghani, the president since 2014, is that this would mean in essence dissolving his
administration in order to form a government with his former enemies. Having come to
power promising to fix the failed Afghan state, he would find that a bitter pill to swallow.
Whether or not he is willing to do so may prove the most important question of the
coming year.
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