The Emergence of Early Modern Europe 19which have not changed since the late Middle Ages. The basic layout of three
Scandinavian states already existed. And important states of East Central
and Central Europe (Hungary, Bohemia, and Poland-Lithuania, a confeder
ation created in 1386 and which early in the sixteenth century extended
from the Baltic to the Black Sea), were already reasonably well defined. Even
the Swiss cantonal federation had emerged. Most of the small territorial
fragments lay in the German states or Italy.A Rising Population
Europe’s population had almost doubled between 1000 and 1300, rising
from about 40 million to about 75 million people. But early in the four
teenth century, the population began to decline, probably because of ram
pant disease. Then, in the middle of the century, the Black Death ravaged
Europe, killing between a third and half of the European population. Spread
by fleas carried by rats, the bubonic plague reached Constantinople from
Asia in 1347. Within three years, it had torn through Europe. Victims died
horrible deaths, some in a few days, others lingering in agony. Some villages
were completely abandoned, as people tried to flee the path of the scourge.
In vain, states and cities tried frantically to prevent the arrival of travelers,
fearful that they carried plague with them.
For the next century, births and deaths remained balanced (with higher
mortality rates in cities wiping out increased births in the countryside). Eu
rope only began to recover during the second half of the fifteenth century,
thanks to a lull in epidemics and the absence of destructive wars. However,
the population did not reach the level it had been at in 1300 until about
1550, when it began to rise rapidly, particularly in northern Europe (see
Table 1.1).
Europeans remained perpetually vulnerable to disease and disaster. The
bubonic plague was the worst of epidemics, but influenza, typhus, malaria,
typhoid, and smallpox also carried off many people, particularly the poor,
who invariably suffered from inadequate nutrition. Moreover, Europeans
looked to the heavens not only in prayer but also to watch for the bad
weather that could ruin harvests, including storms that brought flooding.
Famine still devastated regularly, a natural disaster that checked population
growth, killing off infants, children, and old people in the greatest numbers.
“Nothing new here,” a Roman wrote in the mid-sixteenth century, “except
that people are dying of hunger.”
Life for most people was short. Life expectancy, once one had made it out
of infancy and childhood alive, was about forty years. Women lived longer
than men, but many of them died during childbirth. About a fifth of all
babies born died before they reached their first birthday. Of 100 children
born, less than half lived to age twenty and only about a fifth celebrated a
fortieth birthday. Christ, who died at age thirty-three, was not considered to
have died young.